Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471128283425222664

1st part. discretionary sales will close. The rest will play out as planned.

So my read on this is that Musk could continue selling 934,091 shares per day for the 4 days that remained in this week. That would bring the total sold up to 15,702,785, or 92.1% of his 17M target. This seems to be the upper bound on how much damage this selling can do until after the Q4 earning report in late January. I'm also hoping that this gets Musk close enough to his goal that he'll let off next year.

Do this interpretation seem sound? I'd like feed back.

I'm trying to transfer a few shares to charity by the end of the year, but would prefer to hold out for better prices. So if it makes sense that Musk's selling will let off by the end of the week. I'm inclined to wait until next week or the following week to make the transfer.

 

[Rarity]

We knew there was some sort of investors meeting happening last week because the week before there was a schedule that was posted of it. Then Gary confirmed that he was on that investor's meeting and gave a detailed breakdown of what all was said, including that Tesla stated 2022 guidance of 1.5 million. Tesla also stated that they expect the first year of Berlin and Austin to mimic Shanghai's first year in terms of output/margins.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468975134279090176

And yes, I do not like that Tesla does these private investors/analyst meetings. They did it back in Q1 of this year and I didn't like it then at all. However, this is a common thing on Wall St. Companies hold private analysts meetings all the time.

Good to note that those appear to be Gary's thoughts rather than quotes from Tesla. Lots of potential misunderstandings.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think everyone should be prepared for the BBB not passing AT ALL. I always thought it needed to happen in 2021 because next year is election year. And it's also very clear now that Manchin never intended to support the bill, no matter what the number was or what Dem's compromised on.

I can't help but laugh at how progressives got played in all this. They lost all their leverage the moment they passed the bi-partisan infrastructure bill.

It's not only the 'progressives' that were fooled.

How about all those right here that still thought it would pass, even after they passed the infrastructure bill.

And Elon did a brilliant thing by easing expectations by announcing his opposition to the bill. Imagine what would have happened if he had said "I hope the EV credits pass because this will help our mission of transitioning to EV's more quickly". Never mind he would never say that because the bill was not designed to do that and Elon knows it wouldn't accelerate the transition in any meaningful way and might actually slow it.

 

[tivoboy]

Holy *sugar*. There are a ton of things in that bill that needed to pass. We HAVE to rebuild our roads and bridges...man this ****ing country.

Just to point out, pushing this into 2022 is not the same thing as “schelving” it, so this what would be considered a highly significant change isn’t being reported hardly anywhere else.

One party put a “before Xmas” deadline on this and I think as with all parties, meeting deadlines is hard.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Good to note that those appear to be Gary's thoughts rather than quotes from Tesla. Lots of potential misunderstandings.

I think everyone can be quite sure that the bullet points that he listed are clear quotes from Tesla, not his thoughts, specifically -

2/Austin & Berlin Yr 1 vols and GM% should be similar to Shanghai Yr 1
3/ We have confidence FY’22 delivs will approx 1.5M (Street 1.27M), battery capacity permitting.'

The phrasing of the wording is clearly exact quotes from Tesla that Gary wrote down. Not Gary's own thoughts.

 

[Knightowl]

/sigh I can't stop, price is too sweet, keep adding 5 shares here and another 5 there then another 5 ....on margin no less.. hmm yeah new for me to borrow to get more shares.. always the risk I loose more shares than borrowed but I am ok taking on that risk.

 

[ZachF]

The Limiting Factor released this new awesome video explaining how lithium ion batteries work:

It really is great!

 

[canoemore]

Huh. I assume the Fed had some good news.

 

[Nocturnal]

Were people expecting an immediate rate hike? TSLA seems to like the hawkish Fed news. Sell the rumor and buy the news?

 

[NicoV]

What happened?

 

[lafrisbee]

Huh. I assume the Fed had some good news.

zoom zoom zoom

 

[elasalle]

Fed will aggressively dial back its bond buying, sees three rate hikes next year

The Federal Reserve provided multiple indications Wednesday that its run of ultra-easy policy since the beginning of the Covid pandemic is coming to a close.

www.cnbc.com

^ just headline

market seems to be reacting as already baked in ... let's give it a few more mins though ..


+ Fishing party was waiting for above, seems now gonna head back to shore.

 

[phantasms]

Got to wonder if there’s such a flood of retail out there that every decision makes the market break to the upside unless there’s something really really awful. Down on uncertainty, up on certainty no matter what it is. lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

TLSA buyers liked the FED news:

 

[tivoboy]

Old market adage alert: Market never gives you much time to sell.

 

[H Mak]

That said, it's a shame I can't get a subsidy for the Y I'm getting delivered next year.

Same here, but when you're spending close to £60k on a car, a thousand or two doesn't make much of a difference. Maybe that's the thinking.

 

[lafrisbee]

What happened?

NOTHING! nuthin happened

 

[jhm]

We knew there was some sort of investors meeting happening last week because the week before there was a schedule that was posted of it. Then Gary confirmed that he was on that investor's meeting and gave a detailed breakdown of what all was said, including that Tesla stated 2022 guidance of 1.5 million. Tesla also stated that they expect the first year of Berlin and Austin to mimic Shanghai's first year in terms of output/margins.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468975134279090176

And yes, I do not like that Tesla does these private investors/analyst meetings. They did it back in Q1 of this year and I didn't like it then at all. However, this is a common thing on Wall St. Companies hold private analysts meetings all the time.

Dang, we've got a competition between Germany and Texas.

Which one will produce more Model Y by end of 2022?

 

[Cherry Wine]

It's not only the 'progressives' that were fooled.

How about all those right here that still thought it would pass, even after they passed the infrastructure bill.

And Elon did a brilliant thing by easing expectations by announcing his opposition to the bill. Imagine what would have happened if he had said "I hope the EV credits pass because this will help our mission of transitioning to EV's more quickly". Never mind he would never say that because the bill was not designed to do that and Elon knows it wouldn't accelerate the transition in any meaningful way and might actually slow it.

I don't agree with the notion that this is a death knell for the bill. Manchin has said that some of the more bearish reporting this morning was a mischaracterization and he's signaling that he wants something to pass, just with a lower cost ($1.75T). I still think there's room to negotiate, and that the party is desperate to pass something in the face of a very tough re-election year for them. I still think they find a way to get it done, but it will be very shaky going with a razor-thin margin and two wings in a party that are very far apart from one another. Ultimately, I don't think it really matters to Tesla one way or another, however.

Agreed that Elon fielded questions on the bill during the WSJ CEO summit very deftly. He positioned himself for a win/win - if it passes, fine, market won't see that as a negative; if it fails, fine, we didn't need it anyway.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

TLSA buyers liked the FED news:

View attachment 744686

We'll see what happens for the rest of the afternoon, but the stock's action after the initial spike tells me this is going right back below the lower BB and will continue the trend of riding it downwards. Clear intent to cap any rise.

Pretty much confirms I'm going to stay patient and wait for 900-910 to do more stock for LEAPS