Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

As much as I love the company and the stock (just got my Model Y 2 days ago) ... it's always been obvious that TLSA is a momentum stock. This will pass but until then it's gonna hurt.

The Model Y is incredible and I'm looking forward to my long 1.5 hr drive later today!

Cheers to the longs ....

Wrong.

Momentum stocks don't display more strength than QQQ (we're still above the 100 day MA)
Momentum stocks don't retain most of their gains over the 2 years since the COVID crash
Momentum stocks don't have 600-1000% earning growth

There's always a level where TSLA is a screaming buy based on black & white financial metrics. While that level is often below where the stock trades in a bull cycle, it exists nonetheless and the gap is getting ever smaller as the company's execution keeps defying even the most bullish expectations.

Know this:

AMZN traded at 80 PE in 2018
NFLX traded at 160 PE during that same timeframe
US10Y was 3% then

TSLA is trading at 65x 2022 EPS. TSLA is a much better bet than both of these names in every conceivable way. A 10% drop in the QQQ and people already losing their mind.

 

[H Mak]

This time next week everybody will be wishing they bought more. Well I just did, @ $978

 

[Tyler34]

Sold 500 shares, bought 10 jan2024 750 leaps.

 

[Nocturnal]

When people say they are certain we lose another 20% or so, and in the same breath say they are long...that makes zero sense.

 

[Knightshade]

When people say they are certain we lose another 20% or so, and in the same breath say they are long...that makes zero sense.

Not really... for most selling now and rebuying 20% lower would be of little to no benefit (or even COST them money in some cases), because taxes are a thing.

(YMMV for stuff like IRA shares, or being in another country that handles taxation differently of course).

 

[FS_FRA]

Bought more chairs @ $999, $990, $970 this week. One more order in for $960 (missed the $951 bottom).

These purchases then fill up an odd-lot to the next 100.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hella weak trading by TSLA, down 5X the macro's at the point. That's pretty disappointing.

BUT I'm going to call it right now......Fed's are only raising rates 2, maybe 3 times this year for a total of .5-.75%. We're already starting to see bits of data that inflation is going to be in fact transitory and that there's a big deflation wave looming.

Still might take a month or two for more data to come in that paints the picture clear, but I think the market will be surprised by what the Fed says on Wed. I don't think the Fed will be particularly dovish, but the fear that the market is pricing in (a surprise .5% hike in Feb) seems unlikely to happen.

 

[Mengy]

Well, up to my neck in margin. I'm a bad investor and I don't take my own advice to heart.

I considered going into margin this morning (with my "fun" account) when the price was below $970, but I held fast and didn't do anything instead. If we see another huge drop down then I likely will, but I think I'll just ride this rolllercoaster out a bit longer to see what happens. I'd rather leave money on the table than go into heavy margin for a long period of time. I love my debt free status, it enables me to sleep very soundly.

 

[Singuy]

Hella weak trading by TSLA, down 5X the macro's at the point. That's pretty disappointing.

BUT I'm going to call it right now......Fed's are only raising rates 2, maybe 3 times this year for a total of .5-.75%. We're already starting to see bits of data that inflation is going to be in fact transitory and that there's a big deflation wave looming.

Still might take a month or two for more data to come in that paints the picture clear, but I think the market will be surprised by what the Fed says on Wed.

Absolutely a large deflation loom coming. Rent went up 30% the beginning of this year. People have way less money to spend as their covid saving drains.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Absolutely a large deflation loom coming. Rent went up 30% the beginning of this year. People have way less money to spend as their covid saving drains.

And the Fed is going to have to back off of it's rate hikes in a big way when the wave comes. The market/Fed have this entirely wrong and are going to have to backtrack in a big way.

 

[dl003]

Hella weak trading by TSLA, down 5X the macro's at the point. That's pretty disappointing.

BUT I'm going to call it right now......Fed's are only raising rates 2, maybe 3 times this year for a total of .5-.75%. We're already starting to see bits of data that inflation is going to be in fact transitory and that there's a big deflation wave looming.

Still might take a month or two for more data to come in that paints the picture clear, but I think the market will be surprised by what the Fed says on Wed. I don't think the Fed will be particularly dovish, but the fear that the market is pricing in (a surprise .5% hike in Feb) seems unlikely to happen.

Absolutely. February CPI report due early March should be an inflection point. Energy prices which have been the main inflation driver, didn't pick back up to pre-pandemic levels until February last year. It's coming faster than people think.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We're already starting to see bits of data that inflation is going to be in fact transitory and that there's a big deflation wave looming.

That's the Cathie ARK theory as well, and she's been selling TSLA for a few weeks now.
Talk to me about deflation wrt how TSLA fairs. I imagine the "demand" word comes out from hiding.

 

[phantasms]

Not sure if this things going to get up and over the hill. I expected TSLA to bounce back harder when a bottom was found. Another fake out today?

 

[H Mak]

Incidentally, using @The Accountant 's latest GAAP EPS estimate for 2022 we are now at a forward PE of 75. Now, is that cheap or is that cheap?

 

[OrthoSurg]

All my dry powder went on 3 x LEAPs when SP was $970. My trigger point of -30% since ATH made me do something.
BTO
1x 19/01/2024 500c
1x 19/01/2024 1000c
1x 19/01/2024 1400c

Now let the earnings week unfold

If incredible TSLA earnings result in a -20% move, I’ll officially declare my incompetency to understand the stock market.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's the Cathie ARK theory as well, and she's been selling TSLA for a few weeks now.
Talk to me about deflation wrt how TSLA fairs. I imagine the "demand" word comes out from hiding.

Well Cathies theory is more long term based. What I'm talking about is actual bits of data that have been coming in over the past couple of weeks. Things are being completely ignored just to continue the "fear" in the market and it's leading to a situation where the market is going find itself in the short term, on the very wrong side of this.

As for deflation, there's no concern. If/When inflation subsides and turns to deflation, the Fed is going to have to back off the rate hikes. They likely only get through 2 rate hikes before they are forced to stop and then we're back in the same economic environment we've been in for the past 12 years. Btw, deflation doesn't have to mean recession. Especially after a inflationary spike caused by unusual circumstances.

As for demand worries, that's dead.

 

[thx1139]

Hella weak trading by TSLA, down 5X the macro's at the point. That's pretty disappointing.

BUT I'm going to call it right now......Fed's are only raising rates 2, maybe 3 times this year for a total of .5-.75%. We're already starting to see bits of data that inflation is going to be in fact transitory and that there's a big deflation wave looming.

Still might take a month or two for more data to come in that paints the picture clear, but I think the market will be surprised by what the Fed says on Wed. I don't think the Fed will be particularly dovish, but the fear that the market is pricing in (a surprise .5% hike in Feb) seems unlikely to happen.

Well inflation is so widely misreported and misrepresented. Of course 2021 inflation was much higher 2020 was way down. I mean we saw people get paid to take oil off petroleum producers hands in 2020. Surprise surprise the following YoY oil and gas prices have drastic increase. Then the whole we gov spends money on people then that causes inflation nonsense. Some things indeed have gone up, like child care for instance. Covid hit the elderly very hard and in less well off communities elderly represent a large amount of child care. Guess what happens when grandma and/or grandpa dies. Well working poor need to pay or pay more for day care. Price of working for a huge amount of people has gone up.

Actuaries say we have had over an additional 1 million people die over expected and Mayo clinic says about 1.5 million long Covid cases are preventing people from returning to work. Throw in people learning to get by with less while they hunkered down during covid has caused some families to say you know it really isnt worth it for both parents to work. So price of working and smaller labor pool is causing cost of labor to increase. You know what would help with this? Well programs in BBB that make it more valuable for people to work. Make it easier for people to return to work.

 

[Nocturnal]

Not really... for most selling now and rebuying 20% lower would be of little to no benefit (or even COST them money in some cases), because taxes are a thing.

(YMMV for stuff like IRA shares, or being in another country that handles taxation differently of course).

I get the tax thing, but if they were really certain they would sell and buy puts and come out well ahead. I guess I'm taking too long to just say that people are often full of it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Absolutely. February CPI report due early March should be an inflection point. Energy prices which have been the main inflation driver, didn't pick back up to pre-pandemic levels until February last year. It's coming faster than people think.

And coincidentally, energy/oil prices can stay high if they want cause it just pushes more demand to EV's and Tesla

 

[Todd Burch]

Redemption comes next week. Today is the time to buy.