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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Is it just me, or does this prototype look a lot smaller than the last one? I mean, we knew it was going to get smaller, but this one somehow looks a LOT smaller to me.
(i think) the original dimensions were about 6’2” wide and just under 20 ft length (i think)
..roughly the size of a tundra

so we’ll see the final specs soon, i hope
 
Yeah the past 2 hours of trading have not been great for TSLA. Downright ugly. Clear capping using spoofing. Wall St making sure they can get as many shares at these prices as possible before Wednesday

If you didn’t lose your shares for cheap due to fear or margin calls, you’ve won the day. A low bar for this forum, but why not celebrate the easy wins?
 
From the article:

Tesla - Freemont: 8,550 cars/week
Toyota - Georgetown: 8,427 cars/week
BMW - Spartanburg: 8,343 cars/week
Ford - Dearborn: 5,564 cars/week
Fremont has some serious competition coming down the line from Austin.

In relation to downturns and volitality, the most important condsideration is, don't get into a position where you are forced to sell a quality asset like TSLA when it is massively undervalued. The main risk is high debt levels.

Cathy Wood states that Ark trades around TSLA volitality, time will tell how Ark goes, but they are often well positioned to add at good prices.
 
Big tech isn’t as huge a percentage of total profits as I think you think they are.

If you add together Apple ($100b), Microsoft ($70b), Google ($60), Facebook ($40b), and Amazon ($30b), you get about $300 billion.

Total Corporate profits as a share of GDP is 12%. 12% of $23.2 trillion is ~$2.8 trillion.

So the big tech 5 is about 11% of total, meaning that even if they grow at 30% all it would take is a 3-4% drop of everyone else to counter it completely.

(In reality, the share of profits is probably even lower than that, as much of it is offshored to places like Ireland and counts in their GDP not ours…)
Actually you're kinda proving my point. Both of those numbers aren't new to me and 11% is a huge number for 5 companies. Considering that % is going to go from 11% to 12 or 13% just from this weeks earnings alone says a lot. Just look at the percentage of what the Big 5 used to make up in terms of earnings just 5 years ago........And that's with Amazon's earnings completely going in the crapper this year. In fact, take out Amazon, and you have 4 companies accounting for essentially 9-10% of the market's earnings.

Then you consider the rate at which just those 5 companies have been increasing earnings and it becomes very clear. Keep in mind that just by 2023, Tesla is going to be contributing to this group's earnings in a material way as well
 
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Big tech isn’t as huge a percentage of total profits as I think you think they are.

If you add together Apple ($100b), Microsoft ($70b), Google ($60), Facebook ($40b), and Amazon ($30b), you get about $300 billion.

Total Corporate profits as a share of GDP is 12%. 12% of $23.2 trillion is ~$2.8 trillion.

So the big tech 5 is about 11% of total, meaning that even if they grow at 30% all it would take is a 3-4% drop of everyone else to counter it completely.

(In reality, the share of profits is probably even lower than that, as much of it is offshored to places like Ireland and counts in their GDP not ours…)
I think the denominator to look at would be S&P 500 earnings ($1.6 trillion), and the above 5 are about 20% and growing.

Source: S&P 500 /Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
 
Actually you're kinda proving my point. Both of those numbers aren't new to me and 11% is a huge number for 5 companies. Considering that % is going to go from 11% to 12 or 13% just from this weeks earnings alone says a lot. And that's with Amazon's earnings completely going in the crapper this year. In fact, take out Amazon, and you have 4 companies accounting for essentially 9-10% of the market's earnings.

Then you consider the rate at which just those 5 companies have been increasing earnings and it becomes very clear. Keep in mind that just by 2023, Tesla is going to be contributing to this group's earnings in a material way as well

In 2019 if you add them together:

$56b Apple
$39b Microsoft
$34b Google
$19b Facebook
$12b Amazon

= $160b.

In 2019 GDP was $21t and profits were ~9%, meaning $1.9t total. That puts the big 5 at ~8.5% in 2019.

The biggest boost to corporate profits 2020/21 was the government stimuluses, and I think people massively underestimate the effect. COVID policy was especially generous to big tech.

Companies are going to have a much harder time increasing margins under today’s circumstances vs. those of just a year ago. Yes, tech companies too. It’s gonna be harder to increase iPhone margins on customers whose real wages are declining and your producer prices are up 10%, when a year ago your customer was flush with stimmy checks, producer prices were flat, and the government was subsidizing you directly on top of that.
 
In 2019 if you add them together:

$56b Apple
$39b Microsoft
$34b Google
$19b Facebook
$12b Amazon

= $160b.

In 2019 GDP was $21t and profits were ~9%, meaning $1.9t total. That puts the big 5 at ~8.5% in 2019.

The biggest boost to corporate profits 2020/21 was the government stimuluses, and I think people massively underestimate the effect. COVID policy was especially generous to big tech.

Companies are going to have a much harder time increasing margins under today’s circumstances vs. those of just a year ago. Yes, tech companies too. It’s gonna be harder to increase iPhone margins on customers whose real wages are declining and your producer prices are up 10%, when a year ago your customer was flush with stimmy checks, producer prices were flat, and the government was subsidizing you directly on top of that.
I'll gladly revisit this topic at the end of this year. Hell we can do it at the halfway point. I think you're going to be very wrong. Just a FYI, remember scale and compounding growth in earnings. What you posted about the percentage in 2019 backs up what I'm saying even more.

I'll leave it at that to not go off topic anymore
 
Looks smaller to me also, looks like it should fit in a garage. That is a good thing. And fit the EU roads too.

I just want to be able to put a large frame 29" MTB in the bed without taking a wheel off and be able to close the cover. Keeping fingers crossed for the folding rear seat that lets the front of the bed open into the back seat area.

Oh, and a million or so reservation cancellations amongst those ahead of mine ... :rolleyes: :cool:
 
A reminder to all, don't cheerlead for getting shares for cheap too hard. There is a lot of people in this thread that could be hurting during this all.
I completely understand why this post has received a lot of ‘agrees’ but I would like all to consider the following:
A large part of the difference in perspective of the long-term investor and the collective {the short-termer, the market timer, the derivative player who has a time-sensitive deadline to his/her position, the speculator and so forth} is made evident in situations such as that in which we currently find ourselves.
BUT - to the extent that the collective latter set of investors have their hands forced, multiplied by the amount of shares exposed to that reaction, ALSO redounds to the fortunes of the long-term investor.

And that, my good friends, is one more reason that for the nine years I have promulgated this thread I firmly have championed long-term investing and gently remonstrated the…others.
Every time - every single time - I have read of someone touting her market-timing expertise; his ‘just bought another lottery ticket’, I cringe.

Carry on.