if i were on an island with that guy, i’d probably kill myself.
not stranded or anything, just on an island.
with him.
any island…even if on vacation, self inflicted death to boomer.
(maybe not if it was one of @Krugerrand ‘s islands)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
not stranded or anything, just on an island.
with him.
any island…even if on vacation, self inflicted death to boomer.
(maybe not if it was one of @Krugerrand ‘s islands)
Tesla believes they will exceed 50% veh production growth. Based on the earnings beat excluding elons one time payroll tax, @theaccountant will likely have to update his forecasts. His last forecast was for GAAP eps in 2022 of $12.87. With a P/E of 150 that translates to a share price of $1,930.
Tesla has stated they will improve margins by reducing hardware costs and improving software profits in 2022.
It looks to me like we will end up with a higher eps number and with improving margins and continued strong growth I would expect a higher P/E multiple
>$1930 share price seems within grasp by year end and that's largely ignoring fsd and Tesla bot.
I will happily continue to hold my shares and leaps and sit tight until the market inevitably values Tesla appropriately.
Tesla has stated they will improve margins by reducing hardware costs and improving software profits in 2022.
It looks to me like we will end up with a higher eps number and with improving margins and continued strong growth I would expect a higher P/E multiple
>$1930 share price seems within grasp by year end and that's largely ignoring fsd and Tesla bot.
I will happily continue to hold my shares and leaps and sit tight until the market inevitably values Tesla appropriately.
I updated my 5 Year Forecast in a separate thread (linked at the bottom of this post).
Here are my price targets from this exercise as compared to my last forecast:
View attachment 756636
I like to compare my numbers to Amazon's 2015 - 2020 period as this is when Amazon first consistently delivered profits.
Here are some comparison of my forecast to Amazon's 2015-2020 run:
GAAP EPS and P/E Multiple
View attachment 756638
Sales Growth & Operating Income Margins
View attachment 756639
Free Cash Flow
View attachment 756640
For more details on my 5 year forecast, see the 8 posts in this thread:
Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook
Great set of numbers. I should just quit my job now :). Why do residential solar roof sites increase to 1.2m/yr in 2023 before dropping back to 50k/yr from 2024 onwards? Ooops. I made a silly and overwrote the equation in the MW-table that was driven by the #-table. So the MW table is...teslamotorsclub.com
He's actually a r/RealTesla poster. He doesn't even pretend to hide it considering he uses the same user name here as there.
r/RealTesla is the the reddit hangout of TSLAQ so makes sense he would be there.
I would hae liked to see Tesla put more emphasis on the 25k car . It sounds like its in the scrap heap. Cybertruck is cool, but IF supply chain was no problem, a 25k car would advance the mission more than any other model they make now., in my opinion. I am not in the FSD is a panacea to carbon ouput camp. I agree with some here that state, the majority of people, especailly with family/work tools/ etc will require a decade or more to transition to a shared vehicle approach, if ever. Would I use it? Maybe here or there, but not a lot. At this point i still want my OWN vehicle, and I feel most others do as well. If not ride-sharing /joint ownership would be way more popular.
Now it is Optimus. Few years back was the solar roof. Once again I feel Elon's timelines are optimistic. They learned over the years to temper guidance on vehicle production, but continue to over promise big idea timelines. I have no doubt in Teslas future success but feel we need to stop burning fossil fuels asap, so feel disappointed in the focus. Sure FSD will make tons of money but I invest for the mission and ultimately thats where my priorities lie.
Where does optimus fit into the master plan? How does a robotic workforce help with respect to global warming/climate change ?
Now it is Optimus. Few years back was the solar roof. Once again I feel Elon's timelines are optimistic. They learned over the years to temper guidance on vehicle production, but continue to over promise big idea timelines. I have no doubt in Teslas future success but feel we need to stop burning fossil fuels asap, so feel disappointed in the focus. Sure FSD will make tons of money but I invest for the mission and ultimately thats where my priorities lie.
Where does optimus fit into the master plan? How does a robotic workforce help with respect to global warming/climate change ?
ok so the call was a little shaky between the lines but not out of the ordinary considering the environment.
but let’s not get all referencing tslaq in here ‘n stuff, that’s pure ridiculousness.
further, tesla can “afford” to delay (which is NOT news) CT, semi, roadster, and the 25k model. if their ASP is still in the 40-50k range then why on earth is the 25k car an immediate necessity? the mission? stop. it will come when they have the batteries and wherewithal to execute it. they couldn’t produce it at the volume needed right now if they had a genie and 3 wishes. so please remove that narrative from the “problems” column. give it a few years and then we’ll be concerned with it. they can’t do “everything” at once.
i’m as tired as all of you to hear the same lame bs headlines about FSD/robotaxi/and now roboptimus daily. but it is what it is.
batteries aren’t as directly critical to these engineering efforts - so they be what they is, or something like that.
but let’s not get all referencing tslaq in here ‘n stuff, that’s pure ridiculousness.
further, tesla can “afford” to delay (which is NOT news) CT, semi, roadster, and the 25k model. if their ASP is still in the 40-50k range then why on earth is the 25k car an immediate necessity? the mission? stop. it will come when they have the batteries and wherewithal to execute it. they couldn’t produce it at the volume needed right now if they had a genie and 3 wishes. so please remove that narrative from the “problems” column. give it a few years and then we’ll be concerned with it. they can’t do “everything” at once.
i’m as tired as all of you to hear the same lame bs headlines about FSD/robotaxi/and now roboptimus daily. but it is what it is.
batteries aren’t as directly critical to these engineering efforts - so they be what they is, or something like that.
even if we take a bit more of a beating in the short term, it’s short term. if macro drag us into medium and long term throughout year, well then plan accordingly. now’s the chance. otherwise we’ll shake it off, i think, swiftly.
tesla is developing a nervous system-like diagram of revenue streams that most others couldn’t fathom, let alone execute. some amazing hedges against the backdrop of a rapidly changing world.
long-term bets for sure, but that’s par for course in these parts. sure i want my instant gratification too, but sometimes it takes maturity, discipline, and patience.
tesla is developing a nervous system-like diagram of revenue streams that most others couldn’t fathom, let alone execute. some amazing hedges against the backdrop of a rapidly changing world.
long-term bets for sure, but that’s par for course in these parts. sure i want my instant gratification too, but sometimes it takes maturity, discipline, and patience.
Elon could definitely have answered the “how 3 million cars in 2024 without new cheaper model?” Analyst question better - with simple statement that demand for current models will get to that number by themselves easily (the standard range Model Y will see massive demand all over the globe once capacity allows for it to actually be built in the numbers required).
But otherwise I LOVED the earnings call:
- loved the Optimus talk about being the potential bigger market opportunity for Tesla
- loved that growth this year will comfortably exceed 50% (with 50% growth coming from Shanghai & Fremont alone!)
- loved that they are explicity not battery cell constrained (being held back by chip supply)
- loved that finally we received 100% confirmation that 4680 cells are a go, and will be shipped in Austin model Ys as soon as the vehicle receives certification! (Hopefully this quarter)
- loved that they have so many product ideas (integrated HVAC/water heater sounds very likely - hope they eventually get into full prefab housing solutions, where a semi arrives with all the supplies and half a dozen Optimus bots erect it in a day).
Edit to add: I think Optimus might become operational before the robotaxi network does.
But otherwise I LOVED the earnings call:
- loved the Optimus talk about being the potential bigger market opportunity for Tesla
- loved that growth this year will comfortably exceed 50% (with 50% growth coming from Shanghai & Fremont alone!)
- loved that they are explicity not battery cell constrained (being held back by chip supply)
- loved that finally we received 100% confirmation that 4680 cells are a go, and will be shipped in Austin model Ys as soon as the vehicle receives certification! (Hopefully this quarter)
- loved that they have so many product ideas (integrated HVAC/water heater sounds very likely - hope they eventually get into full prefab housing solutions, where a semi arrives with all the supplies and half a dozen Optimus bots erect it in a day).
Edit to add: I think Optimus might become operational before the robotaxi network does.
If FSD works, one Robotaxi EV retires up to 10 ICE cars,
Optimus would lower the cost of making things in factories, so lowering the cost of EVs, batteries and solar.
I'm still not giving up on the 25k car, partially because I'm sure staff in China have already done some work on it. (and it will not be overly difficult to achieve.) Most probably, it is simply delayed rather than scrapped.
But if the 25k car isn't happening, then Model 3/Y are the entry level Robotaxis, that is fine for the US and many other countries, but even these cars are a bit big for some parts of Europe and Asia.
I also think a 25K Robotaxi is even better than a 35K Robotaxi, but I admit the difference is cost isn't that significant over 10-15 years and the difference in size is probably something most people could live with, as many taxi's are as big as a Model 3, or bigger.
I don't think Elon is giving up on the mission, they talked plenty about energy storage batteries.
Overall it seems that the product roadmap update was an attempt to redefine priorities, and dampen some expectations. It also seems to reflect Elon's high confidence on FSD progress. In that area he seems to have very high conviction, and that is shaping his thinking.
Part of Elon's thinking is, when FSD works, demand for cars to use as Robotaxis will be high, margins will also be high, as most car purchases will include FSD.
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That is the freeby center square on all cards now.
Reading up on all the comments bummed out about 25K car.. It doesn't really make any sense at this point. They claim FSD is close on the product timeline to the possible 25k car, if they tried to make one. Once FSD is on, the game changes completely. Tesla will need to focus on taxi-type vehicle that is designed for that use case -- durability, ease of cleaning and charging, etc. Not on a posh personal vehicle. Different requirements entirely.
One funny thought I had while listening to the "show". If Optimus is a device that is close enough to human shape and can understand surroundings via software similar to what's needed for FSD, it's not that much more work to teach it to get into ANY vehicle and drive it. So Optimus is an uber-FSD and more.
One funny thought I had while listening to the "show". If Optimus is a device that is close enough to human shape and can understand surroundings via software similar to what's needed for FSD, it's not that much more work to teach it to get into ANY vehicle and drive it. So Optimus is an uber-FSD and more.
Yes, I know of someone who applied to manage a team.I believe that many are working in Buffalo.
Data Annotation Specialist | Tesla Careers
Apply for the Data Annotation Specialist position in Buffalo, New York.www.tesla.com
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My take
1. Huge EPS and $2.8B Free Cash Flow!!!!
2. Fremont and Shanghi constrained by chip supply
3. Berlin and Texas coming on-line with Model Y focus
4. Other stuff
It looks like the company is going to have factory capacity for 3M+ vehicles between Fremont, Shanghi, Berlin and Texas sometime in next 18-24 months. Already on a 1.2m+ run rate with chip constrained Fremont + Shanghi.
Thats just incredible. With $2.84 EPS (Thanks @The Accountant) in Q4 2021, I'm expecting something in the $14 range this year and $20-30 in 2023.
I'm just hoping the share price stays down for a bit while I accumulate 2023 LEAPS
1. Huge EPS and $2.8B Free Cash Flow!!!!
2. Fremont and Shanghi constrained by chip supply
3. Berlin and Texas coming on-line with Model Y focus
4. Other stuff
It looks like the company is going to have factory capacity for 3M+ vehicles between Fremont, Shanghi, Berlin and Texas sometime in next 18-24 months. Already on a 1.2m+ run rate with chip constrained Fremont + Shanghi.
Thats just incredible. With $2.84 EPS (Thanks @The Accountant) in Q4 2021, I'm expecting something in the $14 range this year and $20-30 in 2023.
I'm just hoping the share price stays down for a bit while I accumulate 2023 LEAPS
There will be no $25k car because by the time it comes out they will either be part of Tesla's own Robo Taxi fleet or due to the earnings they can generate it would drive the price up 5 times $25k for anyone that would want to buy one. That's why Elon said they do not understand what FSD would mean when they asked about the $25k car.
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I think no 25k is him managing customer expectation. If plan is revealed now, a lot of ppl would hold off buying 3/y and wait for the 25k. I’m pretty sure the project is going in stealth mode inside Tesla
I don't get the obsession some have with the $25k car. If Tesla is already selling everything they can make at maximum production capacity, why should they produce lower margin variants rather than the higher margin ones? Either case advances the mission about the same. Isn't this the *investor's* thread?
If there comes a time when they have more capacity, I'd like to see the CT, semi, and even roadster. If demand for those and existing model variations can saturate Tesla's production capacity into 2024, I'm all for that. In the meantime, manufacturing at capacity with fewer models is a great thing.
If there comes a time when they have more capacity, I'd like to see the CT, semi, and even roadster. If demand for those and existing model variations can saturate Tesla's production capacity into 2024, I'm all for that. In the meantime, manufacturing at capacity with fewer models is a great thing.
Appologies for the Reeking Alfafa link, but a transcript of the earnings report is here:
seekingalpha.com
I think this is important, and has been overlooked. Tesla are working on new products, significant enough to deserve their own product launch, but Elon won't tell us what they are.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Q4 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 2021 Results Conference January 26, 2022 05:30 PM ET Company Participants Martin Viecha - Senior Director, IR Elon Musk - CEO Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO Andrew...
seekingalpha.com
I think this is important, and has been overlooked. Tesla are working on new products, significant enough to deserve their own product launch, but Elon won't tell us what they are.
It seems that the combination of FSD beta + human driver is much safer than either on their own at present. This is to be expected, freed of the cognitive load of driving the human can supervise and better look out for those now rare instances where safety requires intervention.
Man this thread got weird real fast. Initial call thoughts:
- why is anyone expecting a $25k Tesla anytime in the next 2 years?
- and why on earth would they expect Elon/Tesla to acknowledge it, much less share details or timeline?
- clearly Tesla shooting for 1.5-1.6 million deliveries for 2022.
- zero desire to bring new vehicles to market without scale. Very good for margins
- zach pretty much confirmed still a good amount of the price hikes not factored into earnings yet
- gross margin might stagenate in Q1/Q2 but operating margin to continue higher
- not sure why Elon needed to be on this call and I’d say the presence of him actually heightened expectations which is leading to some disappointment
- I’m so jealous of everyone that’s in the position to buy more shares and/or add leverage. I’m about leveraged out ( not in a dangerous way) but I imagine the one time tax hit will be ignored and then wall st will be amazed by Q1’s operating margin and act like they never saw it coming.
- really don’t get why Tesla didn’t use tax allowance in Q4 when they knew they were going to get hit with that tax bill. Seemed like a good time to counter balance one time items
- why is anyone expecting a $25k Tesla anytime in the next 2 years?
- and why on earth would they expect Elon/Tesla to acknowledge it, much less share details or timeline?
- clearly Tesla shooting for 1.5-1.6 million deliveries for 2022.
- zero desire to bring new vehicles to market without scale. Very good for margins
- zach pretty much confirmed still a good amount of the price hikes not factored into earnings yet
- gross margin might stagenate in Q1/Q2 but operating margin to continue higher
- not sure why Elon needed to be on this call and I’d say the presence of him actually heightened expectations which is leading to some disappointment
- I’m so jealous of everyone that’s in the position to buy more shares and/or add leverage. I’m about leveraged out ( not in a dangerous way) but I imagine the one time tax hit will be ignored and then wall st will be amazed by Q1’s operating margin and act like they never saw it coming.
- really don’t get why Tesla didn’t use tax allowance in Q4 when they knew they were going to get hit with that tax bill. Seemed like a good time to counter balance one time items
I know I'm much more attentive when using FSD. It's not good enough to trust it yet. It's kind of like watching a toddler take its first steps. You hover expecting something is about to go wrong. But I have to say I usually have no interventions during one half of my trip (leaving or returning) and maybe one or two on the other half of it. It's definitely improving with each release.
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