Yup. He was asked, if Rome will get FSD? He replied, "Nope".
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Yup. He was asked, if Rome will get FSD? He replied, "Nope".
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Looking forward to your updated 2022 EPS projection! What are we talkin now.....$13.2?
I’m feeling inexplicably down this evening - not entirely sure why. Just sort of bearish short term. Anyone else feeling this way? Someone snap me out of it!
Yes me too actually. Exactly that. Just discouraged maybe. Sorry guys. Ignore me.
I’m struck by the parallels with SpaceX.
Falcon is a money-printer. It completely dominates the launch provider market. The only reasons to not fly on Falcon are national pride and national security. But,no! Acording to Elon, Starship is SpaceX's highest priority. He's won the game, but he still wants a game changer (to enable multi-planetary humanity).
Same with FSD. Tesla knows they can scale S3XY and win the EV game. But it’s time to changes the game and throw in a multiplier (to enable faster CO2 reductions).
Bot is to improve human condition. Secondary goal.
Falcon is a money-printer. It completely dominates the launch provider market. The only reasons to not fly on Falcon are national pride and national security. But,no! Acording to Elon, Starship is SpaceX's highest priority. He's won the game, but he still wants a game changer (to enable multi-planetary humanity).
Same with FSD. Tesla knows they can scale S3XY and win the EV game. But it’s time to changes the game and throw in a multiplier (to enable faster CO2 reductions).
Bot is to improve human condition. Secondary goal.
I was initially disappointed about no real CT details or updates and the "delayed" $25K car, and how 2022 will focus on ramping the M3 and MY only. Then I heard them state 2022 production growth will be "well in excess of 50%" with conviction. Then Elon went ham about FSD being super close to "ready" and how Optimus seems to be the main priority now and how it could be worth more than the rest of the company combined. And two new factories possibly announced by EoY 2022. And batteries won't be a bottleneck for 2022, and energy is about to ramp in a big way. Oh and yeah, the actual financial numbers were incredibly awesome for Q4 2021.
Now that I've had time to digest it all, I'm more bullish than ever about Tesla's future. Not just it's long term future but it's NEAR term future, like by the end of this year future. The world thinks lots of cars are the future of Tesla while the company is already looking two steps past cars. Autos are just a thing they do to keep busy, and in time it sounds like autos will be a MINOR part of the business.
I'm so glad I'm heavily invested in this company.
Macro is weighing down on TSLA.
That's why we feel beat up.
Nothing we can do about it unfortunately.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I did. I even quoted it to you.
It was in the written description of FSD, shown to you during the purchase process. For years.
Here's a picture for you. The text I cited is near the bottom.
Tesla has Elon Musk and some of the best engineers on the planet. The competition doesn't.
Nolimits
Member
Big congrats to Gary black for having the closest EPS estimate too. Dave Lee and Robs podcast was a great bonus tonight. Hard to price in fsd and bot futures into SP. don’t think market will react accordingly. Heck I am having a hard time digesting everything. The media will spin this earnings call negative with no CT and no 25k car. And everyone will be talking about that tomorrow.
Just like AI day - the goal was to recruit talent and the AI demo was incredible, not to mention dojo. But everyone was focused on the bot next day.
Feeling bullish that most investors won’t get it and we will likely have another opportunity to buy in “cheap” again.
Just like AI day - the goal was to recruit talent and the AI demo was incredible, not to mention dojo. But everyone was focused on the bot next day.
Feeling bullish that most investors won’t get it and we will likely have another opportunity to buy in “cheap” again.
EM being a bit odd got a few people down. I wish the battery situation was more hopeful but it is what I expected. For all you "Berlin is being held up by stupid govt processes"...here's a reality check - Tesla isn't ready there. They don't have enough batteries. There's no need to rush a factory to open and finish hiring 5k people when you don't have enough battery packs to run. With Shanghai they had enough packs from GF1 to run both Freemont and Shanghai. Now that they have continually expanded GF2 and improved Freemont they've begun scrambling to find enough cell capacity.
One thing I can say regarding battery cells. The LiFePo is coming to the USA, I see lots of dealers are rolling out off grid and enterprise solutions for the USA market. Hopefully the energy group takes full advantage and the megapack business takes off, since they are already sold out this year I don't think that really should impact anyone's forward looking PE but it is good for the mission. \
For all the Model 2 still being made etc...I don't know what to you you. They are battery constrained for 2 more years, why put them in a inexpensive car.
Those calculating FSD robotaxi at cars costing $57k. Come on...FSD enabled cars that can do robotaxi work are going to cost a heckuva a lot more than that. More like $100k. Do the calculations and see if that makes sense vs putting $100k in the stock market, run that out 10 years and do the NPV back in each scenario.
One thing I can say regarding battery cells. The LiFePo is coming to the USA, I see lots of dealers are rolling out off grid and enterprise solutions for the USA market. Hopefully the energy group takes full advantage and the megapack business takes off, since they are already sold out this year I don't think that really should impact anyone's forward looking PE but it is good for the mission. \
For all the Model 2 still being made etc...I don't know what to you you. They are battery constrained for 2 more years, why put them in a inexpensive car.
Those calculating FSD robotaxi at cars costing $57k. Come on...FSD enabled cars that can do robotaxi work are going to cost a heckuva a lot more than that. More like $100k. Do the calculations and see if that makes sense vs putting $100k in the stock market, run that out 10 years and do the NPV back in each scenario.
I've heard that before, like my high school guidance counselor and I'll tell you what I told her...by that definition, every technological and scientific discovery is 'hopeful thinking'.
as an engineer, I take hopeful thinking, a whole bunch of other stuff and create the future, you get the benefit of living in it, and if you you're on this forum, it should make you rich, you're welcome!
So the "product roadmap" update was essentially "everything that is delayed is still delayed and even more so...and maybe, possibly we finally get to level 4 FSD this year."
This is what was so important that Elon felt he had to come back to an Earnings Call to explain? He said he'd be done doing ECs unless there was a major update, took *one quarter* off and that was it?
This is what was so important that Elon felt he had to come back to an Earnings Call to explain? He said he'd be done doing ECs unless there was a major update, took *one quarter* off and that was it?
Ford CEO:
“The Mustang Mach-E accumulated 27,140 sales in 2021, making it the second best-selling model in its class, trailing only the Tesla Model Y.”
What’s that? 20% of the MY’s sold domestically for same year? Both having a full year of sales.
So far behind that calling it second best is laughable.
[Edit] Clarified this being domestic sales and full year of production for both.
“The Mustang Mach-E accumulated 27,140 sales in 2021, making it the second best-selling model in its class, trailing only the Tesla Model Y.”
What’s that? 20% of the MY’s sold domestically for same year? Both having a full year of sales.
So far behind that calling it second best is laughable.
[Edit] Clarified this being domestic sales and full year of production for both.
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And nowhere does it say that Tesla won't take 30/50/70/90% of the cut from a Tesla Network,
Or charge $50k a year for an automated recharging solution (someone needs to plug it ) etc.
There is a lot of presumption that a working FSD solution will be valuable for the car owner.
I know it will be for Tesla, but I remain to be convinced that they will share much of it.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
To be fair- most of them get sold in Europe because the emissions credits are more valuable there. Total production for 2021 was 70,400. Still far less than Model Y, but halfway respectable for the first full year of production for a legacy company.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Gary didn't account for the 300M+ in one-time tax expense. Doesn't seem like anyone did. So while his estimate was technically closest, he was really quite far off. That Twitter guy(Steve?) was closest I believe. Something like $2.86, while @The Accountant is estimating the adjusted figure with this tax expense removed would be $2.84.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's great, but it's not what you originally claimed.
Reminder-
That's your claim. It's factually untrue. They absolutely promised that. In writing. During the purchase of FSD.
What tells you they won't take 90% is basic math. Nobody would put their car on it if they did that.
Or you just have it return home every 250 miles or whatever (maybe every 400+ if you're running a 500 mile range cybertruck). Means you can't run it quite as many hours of the day but hardly a show stopper.
The more obvious solution of course will be Teslabots at supercharger locations- which would allow them to both plug/unplug the car and clean them out- solving the vomit problem as well!
EXACTLY. Tesla is going to make $ from a FSD robotaxi fleet. That I believe. Jack and Jill? I don't see it. If there is a consistently great revenue from an area there will be competition and Tesla will be the competitor. I've seen this model play out half a dozen times and news flash to the gullible- you'll be providing free capital for the richest OEM in the world.
I like the idea of Robotaxis I just don't think it is simple and I don't think individual car owners will make any money.
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