Sorry, I was going to respond to your post earlier and never did, but I didn't notice your quote was still cached when I responded to @TSLA_Hopeful.What are you even talking about?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Phobi
Member
Break it down Rob! Saying what needs to be said.
One thing that I don't see being discussed concerning FSD. We're looking at this as how it impacts the sales of Tesla vehicles, the ability to use Tesla vehicles as robotaxis or "mass transit" vehicles. Goes a lot further. All that technology can be sold to other companies as an entirely new revenue stream. Tesla doesn't currently manufacture a delivery van-but how about a fully autonomous van, "powered" by Tesla FSD, from GM, Ford or Ram? While were at it, think about throwing in an Optimus to load and deliver packages. Maybe Tesla AI operating trains-AI that doesn't get tired, distracted or drink on the job. Simple compared to the randomness and chaos of our roads. Sell FSD to Proterra, Bluebird or Thomas for autonomous busses.
What is different about Optimus is, it doesn't require a deep partnership with a competitor.
It is an "off the shelf" product, Tesla and the competitor may need to cooperate on training, but the training can be done by a small highly specialised unit within Tesla.
Once one Optimus has been trained for a task, others to do same the task are "off the shelf" purchases.
The only decision for a competitor is :- Do they want to leverage the productivity benefits of Optimus or not?
The next question is:- How does Optimus stack up against any robot competition?
We need to keep in mind that Tesla hasn't stopped making cars, they are going to ramp additional Model Y production. New models are in the (delayed) pipeline. The impact of trying to do Optimus on vehicle production will be very small.
So even if Optimus is a risky bet, it is a risky bet with a very big upside, and very little downside.
Personally I never care what the critics say, when Tesla wins it tends to win big.
EDIT1: For driving other cars I wonder if Optimus simply has a cable which plugs into a port on the car, if Optimus has front, rear and side facing cameras they may be sufficient, or maybe the car's cameras are part of the feed. Otherwise the other vehicle brand more or less has to run Tesla's hardware and software, and it is hard to draw boundaries.
EDIT2: The other reason to do the project which I have considered from Day 1 is to keep and attract smart innovative workers,, often smart talented hard-working people want a challenge and get quickly bored with routine work.
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My vote is for tiger woods as the most sport transformative of all time. So let's go with "Tiger Musk."
Yea but what was AMZN’s mkt cap in 2016? Prob way less than 900B. Not saying I disagree. But just looking at share price is misleading.
Break it down Rob! Saying what needs to be said.
ChefBoyardee
Member
Something I read on twitter made me think:
There are 3 possible reasons for the earnings reaction (in terms of what analysts heard)
- No new models in 2022
- Lingering supply chain issues
- Focus shifting away from EV
Based on all EV stocks selling off in tandem with TSLA I think the biggest reason was the supply chain, since that is the only one that would negatively affect the competition. The other two would actually help the competition.
Ok so if supply chain is the worry… well Apple mentioned on their call today that they see improvement with the supply chain issues already. Apple has a lot of credibility.
Based on all this, it seems like the fear should ease a bit and the buying can start.
On the flip side, the decline in those stocks could just be purely macro.
Thoughts?
There are 3 possible reasons for the earnings reaction (in terms of what analysts heard)
- No new models in 2022
- Lingering supply chain issues
- Focus shifting away from EV
Based on all EV stocks selling off in tandem with TSLA I think the biggest reason was the supply chain, since that is the only one that would negatively affect the competition. The other two would actually help the competition.
Ok so if supply chain is the worry… well Apple mentioned on their call today that they see improvement with the supply chain issues already. Apple has a lot of credibility.
Based on all this, it seems like the fear should ease a bit and the buying can start.
On the flip side, the decline in those stocks could just be purely macro.
Thoughts?
I was watching this Dave Lee video and was thinking that after the model S, and 3, Elon was done with bet the company ideas. I really did underestimate him.
I don't think this real world AI priority is a bet the company idea in the sense that it will leave Tesla gasping for capital, but in terms of it's impact on the company, it is much bigger aspirationally.
Another thing that strikes me is the theme in all the big tech thinking is the metaverse as the future of all collaboration. FB is of course the poster child, but apple and Microsoft both want in on the metaverse. And I personally have the opinion that the metaverse is somewhat escapist, and the only reason it gained traction is because people were sitting at home, working remotely, got zoom fatigue, and suddenly metaverse became a thing.
i love it that Elon pooped on the metaverse and is rightly going for the much more difficult and consequential problem of solving real world AI. This feels like being an investor in the days of model 3 ramp and everyone underestimating the impact and economics of the model 3. But once the economics are clear, the valuation will see another step change.
I have a feeling that Elon wanted to call this Master plan Trés, but toned it down a bit to not scare all the investors.
Anyways, back to the future I guess. And I am looking forward later this year to a new comp plan that would top out when EBITDA reaches half a trillion and market cap reaches 10 trillion.
I don't think this real world AI priority is a bet the company idea in the sense that it will leave Tesla gasping for capital, but in terms of it's impact on the company, it is much bigger aspirationally.
Another thing that strikes me is the theme in all the big tech thinking is the metaverse as the future of all collaboration. FB is of course the poster child, but apple and Microsoft both want in on the metaverse. And I personally have the opinion that the metaverse is somewhat escapist, and the only reason it gained traction is because people were sitting at home, working remotely, got zoom fatigue, and suddenly metaverse became a thing.
i love it that Elon pooped on the metaverse and is rightly going for the much more difficult and consequential problem of solving real world AI. This feels like being an investor in the days of model 3 ramp and everyone underestimating the impact and economics of the model 3. But once the economics are clear, the valuation will see another step change.
I have a feeling that Elon wanted to call this Master plan Trés, but toned it down a bit to not scare all the investors.
Anyways, back to the future I guess. And I am looking forward later this year to a new comp plan that would top out when EBITDA reaches half a trillion and market cap reaches 10 trillion.
I agree, though the supply chain issue isn't a huge problem as Tesla guided 50%+ for 2022 AND they see it easing for 2023. Prior to Elon mentioning this, people thought 2022 will be an under 50% year but it's not the case.
Today's price action was very weird. I didn't think Tesla would hit the technical targets I talked about on the back of good macros but everything managed to get to go exactly there.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Here's what happened:
Yes, traditional money on Wall Street, funds, money managers, etc. think in a very formal, regimented, restricted manner. I call it stupid although they are not really stupid (but that is essentially how it plays out in situations like these). They have to model the most likely earnings looking forward to assign value to the shares today. They cannot model things that don't fit their model. That means any talk of humanoid robots they don't know what to do with. Any talk of FSD, they cannot put in their spreadsheet. How do you model "nutty"? But the worst part is, once Elon said the economy car was not being worked on and the Cybertruck has a somewhat nebulous timeline, they can't model revenues for those things either. And they can't understand that the market has huge ability to absorb far more Model 3's and Model Y's than current sales/production. So they can't model that many of each car model because that would make both of them the best-selling cars, period. Gas or electric Yet EV's are only 6% of global sales. They can't compute this. They think Tesla needs more car models to distribute the volume of sales Tesla is forecasting because that's how the auto industry works.
That means TSLA ownership is only for those who "get it". Meanwhile Tesla will continue to build production capacity which will result in quarter after quarter of record sales. As the new factories ramp into efficient production their margins will be crazy high because they didn't spend a bunch of money spreading their production around more models than necessary. He even told us the 4680 cells are ramping up as we speak, both in-house and at partner factories, and it flew right over the heads of those who sold/decided not to buy. Remember, it's all about the batteries.
I can't say how long it will take for the price to recover, but eventually reality will start to sink in and the price will get bid back up. My feeling is Elon purposefully disenfranchised anyone too idiotic to see what is happening right before their eyes. He really doesn't give a flying frack because he doesn't want to work for people like that (yes, he works for shareholders). He knows he is going to make a lot of people very wealthy and he thinks it's better if it goes to the kind of people he likes rather than those he despises. The beauty of all this is it didn't require anything but pure honesty from Elon. Sure, he might have hammed it up a little bit but essentially, he was giving us the straight scoop on how nutty the profits are going to be and giving the finger to those he doesn't like.
But that's not all. Elon works his magic by taking actions that solve multiple things at once. And a low share price is good for Tesla's next phase of expansion in terms of attracting talent. Elon doesn't give all this much thought because he's a visionary. He just sees the future he wants to create and takes steps that sets big things in motion, that pushes towards the desired outcome. It's not a cold, calculated, if A, then B. This is what vision is and he doesn't fret over the details. He doesn't see this in words in his mind, it happens in cascades of visions. It's the source of his particular form of magic. It's not really magic but the superior results he delivers can make it look like magic to someone who doesn't understand how he can accomplish so much, how things seem to go his way an inordinate amount of the time.
A conventionally thinking CEO judges they did a good job on a conference call if the share price rises during and after the call. Higher share price is good, right? Success! Elon takes a bigger view. He did well on the call if he sets off a chain of events that allows greater success down the road. He needs to get the dominoes lined up. Because he knows true success is not a high share price. True success is hard. It's the success that made that high share price possible and we are still in the early stages. I'm sure there is a lot more depth to his vision than I'm even aware of. He's probably killing 3 or 4 birds with one stone, Part of it might simply be because it's more fun being CEO of Tesla when he can draw out the doubters and naysayers and them give them a good slapping. He's not worried because he knows the share price will eventually take care of itself.
It's not the first time he's done this. Those who like non-volatile stocks or need some handholding on future projections can shop elsewhere, for everyone else, it's a buying opportunity. This is why I focus on the company's execution rather the share price.
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It was blatantly a bear raid. Selling all the other EV stocks off was part of the attack on TSLA share price. Too bad the S Elon's C is too busy policing Elon's tweets to do their actual jobs and ensure markets are not manipulated by bad actors.
pitabun
Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The Cybertruck was not unveiled and available for ordering until 2019. People did reserve multiple Cybertrucks hoping to lock in the $7K FSD price. But each reservation only cost $100. Probably a good investment if Tesla honors the $7K FSD price.
I wrote a critical post yesterday regarding my disdain for Elon speaking at the ER (and the carnage that ensued) and a desire for him to not do that again in future.
Not unexpectedly it received many downvotes and some ridicule.
The ridicule was centered on the last part of my post related to the fact that I trade options to generate some income, and many were suggestions that if I don't like it, I should sell and go away.
No one bothered to engage with the actual comment I was making.
I've slept on it.
Bombs away. I don't care.
Not unexpectedly it received many downvotes and some ridicule.
The ridicule was centered on the last part of my post related to the fact that I trade options to generate some income, and many were suggestions that if I don't like it, I should sell and go away.
No one bothered to engage with the actual comment I was making.
I've slept on it.
And I stand firm by my comment: Elon should be banned from talking at ERs - Zach should do all the talking.
Product road-maps, etc. should be given alternative platform where Elon can talk. He does so anyways on Twitter to his 71M followers, podcasts, interviews etc.
To be clear: I am 100% all-in on TSLA. It is the only stock I own and, apart from my home, my only asset.
My ASP is in the $170 region and I've never sold a share - I would suggest that this qualifies me as a HODLer, especially in the eyes of the "if you don't like it, sell" crowd here.
I have a full-time job, a family with two kids, and I trade options on TSLA to generate additional income. I use a part of this income to add to my TSLA position. I always make bullish trades - means, I am bullish on TSLA and attempt to profit from those that are not. If anyone cares, you can head over to the other thread and see my posts there - I'm not a high-risk trader.
In the days leading up to ER, the close we got, the number of you here - and many of the long-term, high frequency posters included - were posting (humorous?) comments about being afraid of what would happen if Elon said the wrong thing during the ER.
And then he goes and does just that - and a critical post on just the carnage that that caused is shot down by the very same posters.
I really think many of us who are on TMC a lot forget that we are in this hyper-informed, hyper-concentrated microcosmos of Tesla / TSLA. The amount of information (good and bad) that is disseminated here is staggering. It is far beyond what 99% of TSLA investors have access to. It provides outstanding levels of depth and insight, and a truly 4D-chess level of differing views and opinions. Some of you have been HODL'ing since IPO (or before?), some of you worked in meaningful positions at TSLA, some of you have had very long lives with impressive experience which you share here, the very large majority of us are fanbois of Elon, Tesla, SpaceX etc (myself included), and we all believe that this is the single greatest company of our times and the investment of a life-time. I do not believe Elon is responsible for generating or losing my income. That is on me.
A generational investment. I buy TSLA for the benefit of my kids.
I stand by my opinion that for 99% of investors out there, the TMC microcosmos of information does NOT inform their decision making.
Institutionals, analysts, etc. base the majority of their opinion on dry numbers presented in ERs etc. , and the media (which as we all agree is predominantly biased against Tesla - and let's not talk politics) provides the color to the mass of TSLA investors. We are not the mass.
As such, when Elon comes on an ER call - which ostensibly has the purpose of periodically informing shareholders on Tesla's financial performance along with income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheets, usually comparing QoQ or YoY, and providing an outlook for the next period - and talks over the topic on hand, everyone on TMC goes nuts, because this is exactly the information we like to receive, we need to hear, it confirms our bull-cases and opinions.
It does not translate well to the actual audience of the ER call. It does not translate well to 99% of investors that consume this information through the media.
The result is that the consumers of this media read: Robots!?, FSD, no Cybertruck, no cheap Tesla, production is hard, supply chain issues. And we experience carnage the day after ER, over 10% down, uptick-rule triggered. Yes, a lot of this is macro and algos (that feed off of the ER and media - 100% not off of posts on TMC), short-sellers, market-makers, bears, hedge-funds, etc. But at the end of the day, there are more sellers than buyers and so the SP is obliterated. Folks that are new shareholders in TSLA see their holdings in negative territory.
These consumers of media do not read: $2.8BN cash flow, 50% YoY growth, $2.87 EPS (if you back out the one-times), over 50% growth projections, the highest margin of all automakers, an unbelievable average cost of production per car, no more cell constraints, two other GigaFactories opening soon - I could go on, but all of you know this better than I do.
So, allow me - and those that did not downvote or ridicule my post - an angry opinion on what was a disastrous earnings call, if measured by the purpose of an earnings call. A call that should have been run by Zach and focussed on the stellar results and the stellar outlook, and should have provided honest, market-calming answers to the questions posed. By shareholders.
The market does not get Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus sub-prime. The market does not want vaporware. The market wants to see in the dry boring numbers a reasonable, plausible way to calculate the projected 50% YoY growth that was presented, based on tangible goods and services they can see Tesla selling today.
Product road-maps, etc. should be given alternative platform where Elon can talk. He does so anyways on Twitter to his 71M followers, podcasts, interviews etc.
To be clear: I am 100% all-in on TSLA. It is the only stock I own and, apart from my home, my only asset.
My ASP is in the $170 region and I've never sold a share - I would suggest that this qualifies me as a HODLer, especially in the eyes of the "if you don't like it, sell" crowd here.
I have a full-time job, a family with two kids, and I trade options on TSLA to generate additional income. I use a part of this income to add to my TSLA position. I always make bullish trades - means, I am bullish on TSLA and attempt to profit from those that are not. If anyone cares, you can head over to the other thread and see my posts there - I'm not a high-risk trader.
In the days leading up to ER, the close we got, the number of you here - and many of the long-term, high frequency posters included - were posting (humorous?) comments about being afraid of what would happen if Elon said the wrong thing during the ER.
And then he goes and does just that - and a critical post on just the carnage that that caused is shot down by the very same posters.
I really think many of us who are on TMC a lot forget that we are in this hyper-informed, hyper-concentrated microcosmos of Tesla / TSLA. The amount of information (good and bad) that is disseminated here is staggering. It is far beyond what 99% of TSLA investors have access to. It provides outstanding levels of depth and insight, and a truly 4D-chess level of differing views and opinions. Some of you have been HODL'ing since IPO (or before?), some of you worked in meaningful positions at TSLA, some of you have had very long lives with impressive experience which you share here, the very large majority of us are fanbois of Elon, Tesla, SpaceX etc (myself included), and we all believe that this is the single greatest company of our times and the investment of a life-time. I do not believe Elon is responsible for generating or losing my income. That is on me.
A generational investment. I buy TSLA for the benefit of my kids.
I stand by my opinion that for 99% of investors out there, the TMC microcosmos of information does NOT inform their decision making.
Institutionals, analysts, etc. base the majority of their opinion on dry numbers presented in ERs etc. , and the media (which as we all agree is predominantly biased against Tesla - and let's not talk politics) provides the color to the mass of TSLA investors. We are not the mass.
As such, when Elon comes on an ER call - which ostensibly has the purpose of periodically informing shareholders on Tesla's financial performance along with income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheets, usually comparing QoQ or YoY, and providing an outlook for the next period - and talks over the topic on hand, everyone on TMC goes nuts, because this is exactly the information we like to receive, we need to hear, it confirms our bull-cases and opinions.
It does not translate well to the actual audience of the ER call. It does not translate well to 99% of investors that consume this information through the media.
The result is that the consumers of this media read: Robots!?, FSD, no Cybertruck, no cheap Tesla, production is hard, supply chain issues. And we experience carnage the day after ER, over 10% down, uptick-rule triggered. Yes, a lot of this is macro and algos (that feed off of the ER and media - 100% not off of posts on TMC), short-sellers, market-makers, bears, hedge-funds, etc. But at the end of the day, there are more sellers than buyers and so the SP is obliterated. Folks that are new shareholders in TSLA see their holdings in negative territory.
These consumers of media do not read: $2.8BN cash flow, 50% YoY growth, $2.87 EPS (if you back out the one-times), over 50% growth projections, the highest margin of all automakers, an unbelievable average cost of production per car, no more cell constraints, two other GigaFactories opening soon - I could go on, but all of you know this better than I do.
So, allow me - and those that did not downvote or ridicule my post - an angry opinion on what was a disastrous earnings call, if measured by the purpose of an earnings call. A call that should have been run by Zach and focussed on the stellar results and the stellar outlook, and should have provided honest, market-calming answers to the questions posed. By shareholders.
The market does not get Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus sub-prime. The market does not want vaporware. The market wants to see in the dry boring numbers a reasonable, plausible way to calculate the projected 50% YoY growth that was presented, based on tangible goods and services they can see Tesla selling today.
Bombs away. I don't care.
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That is why i ordered multiple Cybertruck, to lock-in price of FSD. I remember that they said on the order page that price of FSD would be honoured.
Runarbt
Active Member
You speak the truth.
I found Elons vision exciting.. but I cingred when he spoke at the ER.
Focus on ER cant be on stuff that market does not believe in or think is possible. That is a reciept for disaster (short term)..
It would have been enough to explain why focus had to be on volume production of their current models.
Was very nice to hear tha 50%+ growth this year will be easy, - just based on two factories, and news factories would be announced later this year.
Thats it..
FSD and Optimus? Do separate reveals when these are a fact.
Market has little to no imagination and vision. Elon has vision, and I get his vision - it even blows my mind. Market - which struggle to understand exponential growth does not..
I agree with both of you.
Now that TSLA is in the S&P500, funds own TSLA. These funds, such as pension funds, are tasked with managing, protecting and increasing people's savings -- people who have worked hard in their lives to build a nestegg. Millions of people rely on these funds to make a somewhat reasonable and predictable return to pay for their pensions. This is just one example why the cavalier attitude towards the stockprice is no longer appropriate.
I'm not asking to pump. I'm not asking for lies. I'm not even asking for spin. BECAUSE THE TRUTH IS ALREADY GREAT. I'm asking for qualitatively good (= CLEAR) communication with this responsibility in mind, and a mere 5 minutes of preparation before the earnings call to discuss what will be communicated and how.
Just not make it muddy. Take all the other nerdy crazy stuff for which WS analysts lack intellectual capacity to Twitter or separate events.
It's time to grow up and take this responsibility. Because this responsibility will only increase with Tesla hopefully becoming investment grade and the next wave of funds starting to buy in.
Max
Disclosure: Yes I'm levered and yes it hurts. I'm mostly in DITM LEAPS so I don't think I'll lose my money. I converted the rest of my common stock into DITM LEAPS yesterday at around $830. Will I be fine? Will we be fine? Definitely as long as the execution of the core business continues as it has.
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Expecting a Green Day overall, but the Russia,Ukraine drama is adding fear
I think Russia has greater leverage during winter with its gas pipes … and against Napoleon
Pre earnings I sold CC’s and bought AAPL shares… will buy TSLA leaps with these today.. back to all in TSLA
I think Russia has greater leverage during winter with its gas pipes … and against Napoleon
Pre earnings I sold CC’s and bought AAPL shares… will buy TSLA leaps with these today.. back to all in TSLA
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