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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The VIN reports coming in support that number. If we don't have somewhere in the neighborhood of 80,000 Model 3s produced it will be a spectacular failure for VIN counting which has been somewhat useful for a long time. To be clear it could be much higher but that just seems too improbable.
No thanks...I just took a shower.
Probably a lot easier to vin count when they are delivering to US and Canada. Now they’re delivering to six different countries/regions makes sense that vin counting won’t be as accurate.
Long gone are the days of unbridled optimism when we would all ignore such possibilities and get super excited for the huge quarter Tesla seems to be having. To me it is a great time to accumulate. At some point the stock will rally and bring all the momo traders back. Right now it just looks like dead money.
Fast Money used to have little pop up boxes that would appear next to the panelists with disclosures of positions held in stocks mentioned on the show. They did away with them some time ago, but continued to provide the disclosures on the CNBC website. Now I don't see anything. Melissa Lee (the moderator) frequently asks the panel members if they hold a position. The panelists will also often volunteer the information. But there should be mandatory disclosure any time a panelist is going to "talk their book".
Anything less doesn't seem right.
Nope. We are living in upside down town. If Tesla sells 100,000 cars and shows a profit the stock will drop 12 bucks.
Just sayin.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Yes, I want to get some April 5 calls myself. Looking at 290 strike for about 2$. Going to wait a little bit more for time decay and to see what the price does. In the meantime, picked up a few more shares and Jan 400s for $11.
Krugerrand
Meow
It was a non-sensical, illogical thing to post. If he’s frustrated, maybe go get a massage instead of posting.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Pretty disgusted with Wall St and at the same time kinda in awe of how blatant they are with manipulation. No one for a second believes the BS demand reports this morning...….they're literally quoting the exact same FUD from a month ago(Jan/Feb US numbers are down). I'm very disappointed in investors though(not retail investors). It seems like everyone on Wall St is either in the game to drive the share price down or just complicit to let it drop all they way down to 250 share before they'll start buying, regardless of how much progress the company makes. I'm actually starting to think that a lot of the funds that hold tesla shares bought them not to ride the share price higher, but to maximize downward selling pressure in coordination with FUD and short attacks. Again though, it's my personal belief that the industries Tesla will be disrupting are bankrolling Wall st funds behind the scenes so I don't expect many of you guys are going to join me on the conspiracy bandwagon lol
It would be nice to hear something from the company or Elon. It's not material information to reaffirm guidance already given or to just say "We see no demand issues at all". We here all know from the anecdotal evidence(Euro delivery dates being may now), reports of SR+ orders not being delivered until Aug, etc...) that it's all BS.
Tesla is the biggest test of my investment thesis. Kind of like ppl shorting the 2008 crisis. They cannot believe the kind of stuff that was pulled to keep the whole housing market up. Yet, the data is in front of them screamed collapse. Tesla is like that but for the bull side. Both have a similarity though. In both cases, the other side is actively working against you because there is a huge entrenched industry with many jobs associated with it. When all is said and done, we will probably be staring down at multiple family's lives ruined from a changing industry.
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CyberDutchie
Active Member
Sad but true... also, anyone reporting numbers from VINs or calculating oversea’s shipments, you are doing TSLA a disservice by taking away a possible surprise beat. What will happen is: the media will take your number and this will become the new Q1 consensus number.
Then of course the actual number will come in slightly below (due to undelivered, etc.) and we are back at a miss.
Singer3000
Member
All this stuff with the SEC, the media FUD, very wide error bars on production forecasts from analysts, the depressed stock price... what lies at the heart of it all was the poorly conceived guidance note attached to the Q4 results.
Without proper explanation as to why, you imply in writing that you’ll produce at a similar rate to Q4 for the first half of 2019. Fair enough to change your prior guidance on the timing of 10k per week, which is now contingent on Shanghai opening. This seems a sensible pivot. But what was so odd was saying that the target for 7k per week Model 3 at Fremont was now as far away as the end of the year. And yet the anecdotal evidence suggests they’re not that far away weeks after the statement.
And then an hour after the letter is published, you toss out that conservative guidance on the call anyway and say it’s overly conservative, we’ll do much better.
There is just too much distraction around short term production and demand. I used to think that the publishing of monthly numbers would only serve to increase the distraction levels. But no longer. If Tesla wishes to preserve its brand, it either has to get much more professional with its guidance or else give the market more real-time info.
All they had to say in their letter was: “With the Shanghai factory now intended to produce 3k a week we have decided for now to target a steady state of 7k a week in Fremont, which can be achieved with minimal capex. The timing for this depends on many variables [discuss on call] but is targeted for between the middle and end of 2019”.
Without proper explanation as to why, you imply in writing that you’ll produce at a similar rate to Q4 for the first half of 2019. Fair enough to change your prior guidance on the timing of 10k per week, which is now contingent on Shanghai opening. This seems a sensible pivot. But what was so odd was saying that the target for 7k per week Model 3 at Fremont was now as far away as the end of the year. And yet the anecdotal evidence suggests they’re not that far away weeks after the statement.
And then an hour after the letter is published, you toss out that conservative guidance on the call anyway and say it’s overly conservative, we’ll do much better.
There is just too much distraction around short term production and demand. I used to think that the publishing of monthly numbers would only serve to increase the distraction levels. But no longer. If Tesla wishes to preserve its brand, it either has to get much more professional with its guidance or else give the market more real-time info.
All they had to say in their letter was: “With the Shanghai factory now intended to produce 3k a week we have decided for now to target a steady state of 7k a week in Fremont, which can be achieved with minimal capex. The timing for this depends on many variables [discuss on call] but is targeted for between the middle and end of 2019”.
Well it makes sense if you believe they lose money on every sale.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Actually no, AI is pretty smart and getting smarter as time goes on. It’s called machine learning for a reason.
Month 1 of the quarter will be really bad due to overseas shipments. Month 2 will have the same issue. In month 3 all the shipments finally hit their targets along with domestic deliveries. Talk about fodder...
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Totally. Forget advertising. Launch a Tesla only taxi service. Works just like advertising, except the money flows in, not out. And oh, it’s useful.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
copyhacker
Member
So... the fact that there’s not actually a demand issue... is now an issue?
Yuri_G
Member
The author is a known FUDster, as well.
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