Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Now if we can find out who bought the other 25241 shares!

See above, in ARK's trading history for the day... ;-)

 

[Fact Checking]

All the bots are technical trader, by definition.

You can mix technical trading with fundamentals. For example a bot can trade in one particular direction only for a given instrument, determined by fundamentals gleaned from quarterlies or from analyst recommendations.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here, for the record is CNBC's Q1 consensus - this despite Elon already warning to expect a loss...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Aug 2018.

Tesla convinces judge to dismiss Model 3 production lawsuit

An old part of the case.

Sort of. Today's news is a final dismissal of the amended complaint dated today, March 25th, 2019. Your source is citing the dismissal of the original complaint dated August 2018.

 

[KarenRei]

Looks like Hopper is venting. Better luck tomorrow

Ed: There might have been a preburner test. No fire or sound, but a cloud rushed from the base at one point.

 

[neroden]

To a first approximation, Q1 is going to be GAAP breakeven. Up $35 million (CNBC), down $118 million (FactSet) due to one-time items, whatever. We don't really have enough data to be more precise than "roughly breakeven". We'll see the real numbers in a month.

 

[AlexS]

Here, for the record is CNBC's Q1 consensus - this despite Elon already warning to expect a loss...

View attachment 390212

I think it is non-Gaap. also yahoo finance has 0.32 non-Gaap

 

[lklundin]

Given the state of the European order backlog -- I think less than half of the backlog was handled in Q1 --- I fully expect US deliveries to start drying up again on April 1st as more ships get loaded for Europe. There will probably be a shift back to the US before the next tax credit expiration at the end of June, of course.

Regarding the European backlog, introducing the option for a tow-bar (which Franz von Holzhausen said would come "soon") is an additional demand lever. With or without that option I agree that there is plenty of demand left in the EU - also for higher trim Model 3s.

As for the ships, it's getting kind of boring now that all this quarters' shipments from Pier 80 have arrived...

"City of Amsterdam" is headed for Norway (Bergen) from Zeebrugge, but is taking a longer route along the coast of England since the North Sea is seeing some high winds. With an original ETA of March 27, these deliveries may not take place within Q1.

CITY OF AMSTERDAM Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9174751) - VesselFinder

 

[S3XY]

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Oooooh, he just went all SEC on our @sses.

 

[EVNow]

Here, for the record is CNBC's Q1 consensus - this despite Elon already warning to expect a loss...

View attachment 390212

Is this GAAP or non-GAAP ?

Also, is the guidance Tesla gave of loss GAAP or non-GAAP ?

 

[Joe F]

See above, in ARK's trading history for the day... ;-)

Yeah, but, that wasn't after market close $264 buys. Some probably jumped the gun on the court case being thrown out, falsely believing it was the SEC case. Oops.

 

[wipster]

A little OT...
https://local.theonion.com/police-c..._RSS&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=&utm_term=

 

[CyberDutchie]

Just in, from Morgan Stanley:

Tesla Not Legally Prevented from Raising Equity Capital

In response to many investors asking if Tesla had been sent a Wells notice by the SEC, we called IR whose response was that Tesla is not under a Wells notice and is not legally prevented from issuing equity.

Separately, shortly after market close, Reuters reported that a federal judge in the State of California “dismisses securities fraud case over Tesla Model 3 production claims.” Tesla has not yet commented on or confirmed the report.

 

[KSilver2000]

Yeah, but, that wasn't after market close $264 buys. Some probably jumped the gun on the court case being thrown out, falsely believing it was the SEC case. Oops.

I want to believe that would be the case.
But, if you look at what happened after the first time Musk settled with SEC back in end of September....SP actually dropped. The only thing that saved the SP was the unexpected earnings in October.
TSLA, unless there’s a surprise quarterly earnings or an unknown Musk tweet, nothing can prop it up. Heck, if the model 3 or Y debuts don’t do anything, a settlement with the SEC definitely won’t do anything—given how this stock is manipulated. That’s just my observation from following this thing.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

SEC'''Short Enhancement Commission'...funny, probably true but ill advised...again, IMO. After the 'settlement'..just produce and let surrogates take on the SEC via twitter and just 'like' posts you agree with.

Mandatory Disagree for Misquote in "Quotes." Sorry, that's the rule.
Not A Opinion.

 

[Curt Renz]

Money manager Tim Seymour is a regular panelist on CNBC's "Fast Money" during the 5 pm ET hour. For some time he has been rabidly dissing Tesla at every opportunity presented to him. Moments ago he admitted that he is short Tesla.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I want to believe that would be the case.
But, if you look at what happened after the first time Musk settled with SEC back in end of September....SP actually dropped. The only thing that saved the SP was the unexpected earnings in October.
TSLA, unless there’s a surprise quarterly earnings or an unknown Musk tweet, nothing can prop it up. Heck, if the model 3 or Y debuts don’t do anything, a settlement with the SEC definitely won’t do anything—given how this stock is manipulated. That’s just my observation from following this thing.

Legal and sentiment matters are different. Institutional investors would be in an impossible position if they made a bad buy of a stock that had a case in progress.

ARK are being brave, buying in the face of this, but Cathy Woods is a rare breed. Super strong will.

I could be wrong, but I expect to return to normal territory after we have a ruling, ending the fear of Musk’s removal as CEO.

If not, oh well, the revenue flood is coming.

 

[lklundin]

Just in, from Morgan Stanley:

Tesla Not Legally Prevented from Raising Equity Capital

In response to many investors asking if Tesla had been sent a Wells notice by the SEC, we called IR whose response was that Tesla is not under a Wells notice and is not legally prevented from issuing equity.

Separately, shortly after market close, Reuters reported that a federal judge in the State of California “dismisses securities fraud case over Tesla Model 3 production claims.” Tesla has not yet commented on or confirmed the report.

Importantly, Reuters is reporting on a judge dismissing an older case for the _second_ time, so it is not something new:
Tesla, Elon Musk win dismissal of lawsuit over Model 3 production | Reuters

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Yeah, and:

• HW3 costs less than HW2/2.5
• Telsa buys the chip from themselves (margin goes up)
• nVidia cut out of supply chain (more vert. integration)

So even if HW3 wasn't 1,000x faster executing the NN, it'd still be good for business.

Cheers

Technically, they aren't fabricating the chips themselves, but it should still be no more than low end double digits dollars per chip vs buying for triple digits from NVidia. IIRC they're fabricated at Samsung, but instead of having fabrication margin (NVidia doesn't own it's own foundry, either) on top of NVidia margin, there's just the fab margin (which is must closer to cost than what NVidia charges it's customers, obviously). The rest of the supply chain for the finished boards will be much the same (Tesla surely has the PCBs made somewhere in China, the components populated and soldered there too, etc), but swapping NVidia for Samsung is a no-brainer.

Tesla also could in theory take the design elsewhere (i.e. TSMC or GF) and get it fabricated there, though it would require probably a few million dollars worth of design rework for the different process and new masks and so on. Still an upside if they ever need it as it means that they can't be permanently cut off for any reason (AP1/MobilEye), or "blackmailed" (due to no other choice but to pay them) into higher prices (which I wouldn't put past NVidia to try, they have quite an abusive relationship with their GPU board partners ...), etc.

 

[clmason]

Money manager Tim Seymour is a regular panelist on CNBC's "Fast Money" during the 5 pm ET hour. For some time he has been rabidly dissing Tesla at every opportunity presented to him. Moments ago he admitted that he is short Tesla.

Curt - I often look for your posts as a sanity check against all the FUD. With the share price currently on the low end of the spectrum, what's your outlook on TSLA?