Thank you! Excellent points. This should be the narrative, not whether EM was on the conference call.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Wall Street could have not found a better polarizing figure than Elon to bring TSLA down. They were likely going to take any small negative from the call to suit their narrative, it just so happened that Elon on the call was the icing on the cake they were looking for.
I will admit that I lost money from selling puts but I'm not blaming Elon or Tesla. I knew the risks going in so it's all good.
I still have >80% of my wealth in Tesla and for that I'm very thankful to Elon and what he was able to achieve. At the same time critiquing Elon should not be a crime, there is nothing wrong in saying Elon on the call was not exactly a positive. I think Elon gets it too. I expect him to make some changes for Q1 ER.
The 4680 form factor only accounts for about 50-70% of the benefits here. Lots of other bits which won’t be realized for a few years. No word on whether these new batteries will be using the new anode material (Tesla Silicon) which is a big chunk of that range increase. So we’re not going to see all of the benefits here.
Costs will also be much higher as they are ramping.
But… yes, it’s great seeing an important puzzle piece dropping in!
Thats it , first trade for 2022 , sold x,000 shares.
Purchased 2023 & 2024 Leaps , great opportunity
Purchased 2023 & 2024 Leaps , great opportunity
Thats fine. I placed the majority of my bet 7 years ago, if it goes to zero, it would suck but id be ok, my life would continue as it is now.It’s not constructive criticism. That’s the point. I’ve been here longer than you. You’re not the first, nor will you or anyone else in a tizzy, be the last to think they know better what Elon should or should not do, what he should or should not say.
At best it’s. This man, this company, this bunch of crooked suits is what you signed up for. Sorry, not sorry, it doesn’t fit your temperament or personality. Get over it or move on because I assure you history repeats in a few months.
Personally, I think you’re a funny guy. But you’re way, way too emotional right now along with a bunch of others. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose. Learned that lesson at 15 years old.
Wether or not something should or should not be done is not up to me, what happened or what happens is the result. Im just commenting on what an outcome is, wether its good or bad through eyes of another, and try to figure out why. That might not matter at all, but that's what criticism is. Im not going to post the Websters definition here, but yeah, it is constructive criticism... wether you agree with my dumb criticism is another thing. Perhaps go read my post again, I was as critical of myself as the rest.
Cheers.
BT
See? This is comforting. The Nasdaq rocketing up, and with every pause, TSLA taking a dip. It's stupid, but it's familiar stupid and I've seen the outcome of this behavior enough times to be sanguine about it, and recognize it more clearly as spring-coiling.
I was way out of my depth with the macros going haywire (knock on wood they calm down).
I was way out of my depth with the macros going haywire (knock on wood they calm down).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
[5]. Volatility is not Risk; "a Stallion that doesn't buck is called a Gelding"
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Re. Bot: Elon said it was very important. We better believe him.
The bot is being developed right now. (And perhaps have been, in stealth mode, for some time)
Hard to know when it is a 'product' ready for sale. Or perhaps better: a worker or workforce ready for hire. 4-5 years sound plausible - perhaps conservative.
I think Tesla could make the bot a product in a year from now: They have likely been working on it in stealth mode for some time. Off course a year from now, the bot won't be fully baked, it will be very 'raw'.
There are multiple reasons for keeping the bot very close to the chest for now.
BUT - I would wager that they will start to use bots internally in very short time.
So even 2-4 years before the bots become a 'product' they should have an effect on Teslas efficiency.
Hard to quantify, but a good effect. Perhaps "nutty" good.
My suggestion is that you add a variable/parameter for 'bot efficiency' when you do your models and forecasting.
A first guestimate could be increasing Tesla's productivity with 1% per quarter from 2023 onwards. Just a WAG.
The future EAs, ECs and other Tesla news will hopefully enable you/us to 'dial in' the BE-factor.
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too much shuffling past few days and my personal account got flagged as pattern day trader - last trade that tipped it was made by mistake
- bonus - account now has 7 digit day trading margin available ... holy ...canoly --- ain't touching a single penny
- bonus - account now has 7 digit day trading margin available ... holy ...canoly --- ain't touching a single penny
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Wall St. decided to 'play the man, not the ball' years ago with the very first NY Times hit piece on the original roadster. They've plumbed 6 levels of hell since, and now Elon's the one still standing, and laughing in their faces.
FSD is one of those projects that will never be complete. It will go from one shippable state to another more capable shippable state as long as the world keeps changing. In between those states, there will be rewrites, good version and bad versions, but there will always be something that can be improved.
Got your wish....now what?
I like that rally, QQQ couldn't close above 350 and now it finally did! Give those shorts something to think about this weekend, and longs with cash having ample time to take their pick.
The world is sitting on so much cash right now during this risk off, it's time to go shopping!.
The world is sitting on so much cash right now during this risk off, it's time to go shopping!.
The Accountant
Active Member
This Caught My Attention
I know that FSD is a touchy subject at the moment but this Deutsche Bank (DB) comment caught my attention.
Speaking with Tesla Investor Relations after the call:
“Tesla’s goal is for FSD to reach what is considered Level 4 autonomy by regulators by the end of this year. As such, Tesla will start to seek approval from regulators for a release by the end of 2022.”
12 Key Points from 4Q21 Earnings Call (11 from EM and 1 from DB )
I listened to TSLA EC a second time today ... this is so freaking bullish ... I really don't get what all whining and handwringing is about (from Investors... as for the gamblers i understand, EM is not running his business for your short term bets)
below are verbatim excerpts from EM opening remarks:
1) And while we battled, and everyone did, with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year
2)Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry in the last widely reported quarter at over 14% GAAP operating margin.
3) So, we've begun production at both Texas and Berlin, we started that last quarter.
4) in Texas, we're building the Model Ys with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells, and we’ll start delivering after final certification of the vehicle, which should be fairly soon.
5) Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.
6) Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will through 2022, look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year, I expect.
7) Full Self-Driving. So, over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved.
8) So, on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call.
9) The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So, both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease.
10)So, we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be part constrained. We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles, Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on, are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars?
11) So, in terms of priority of products, I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.
he then asks Drew to talk 4680
12) DB: our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers is actually -- it sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022 or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.
I will agree the Q/A gets a bit confusing for those who do not understand EM communication style ... but i prefer the open dialogue (HVAC example) to the scripted BS from most other public companies .. they are joking around about disrupting another entire sector of the energy business ... challenging other companies to step up and accelerate the mission ... and when these other companies don't do it in a few years ... you can bet Tesla eventually will as it is in their mission to do it if others wont....
I listened to TSLA EC a second time today ... this is so freaking bullish ... I really don't get what all whining and handwringing is about (from Investors... as for the gamblers i understand, EM is not running his business for your short term bets)
below are verbatim excerpts from EM opening remarks:
1) And while we battled, and everyone did, with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year
2)Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry in the last widely reported quarter at over 14% GAAP operating margin.
3) So, we've begun production at both Texas and Berlin, we started that last quarter.
4) in Texas, we're building the Model Ys with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells, and we’ll start delivering after final certification of the vehicle, which should be fairly soon.
5) Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.
6) Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will through 2022, look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year, I expect.
7) Full Self-Driving. So, over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved.
8) So, on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call.
9) The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So, both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease.
10)So, we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be part constrained. We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles, Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on, are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars?
11) So, in terms of priority of products, I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.
he then asks Drew to talk 4680
12) DB: our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers is actually -- it sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022 or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.
I will agree the Q/A gets a bit confusing for those who do not understand EM communication style ... but i prefer the open dialogue (HVAC example) to the scripted BS from most other public companies .. they are joking around about disrupting another entire sector of the energy business ... challenging other companies to step up and accelerate the mission ... and when these other companies don't do it in a few years ... you can bet Tesla eventually will as it is in their mission to do it if others wont....
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