Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

what is the point of putting your FSD on an inefficient BEV or a carbon spewing ICE that will accrue a lot of empty miles?

Are you aware of any ICE vehicles that have redundent controls systems for all safety related mechanicals (brakes, steering, electrical)?

Tesla requires that as a minimum standard for any FSD-capable vehicle. Yep, Tesla has shipped those on all their cars build since Oct 2016. Meanwhile, ICE is melting...

 

[Paul_SF]

People need to stop blaming the call, Elon, and the analysts for this. They are not the ones responsible. Elon being on the call didn't confuse the analysts or make them think bad things were happening; they almost all either reconfirmed or increased their price targets. They get it, Tesla is doing great, and has a great plan for 2022:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486799558743150599

Note: None of them lowered their price targets.

So who/what is responsible for this drop? I don't know, some of it is macros, but it seems like someone really wants to bring TSLA down, and it isn't because Elon was on the call this quarter.

THIS ^

This forum really lost it and that’s why people that know what they are talking about and have insight don’t post much and we have a bunch of whiners that went crazy and yolo’d everything forgetting who runs the market and see everything. TGIF !

 

[dl003]

In term of delta hedging selling, it looks to me like we've seen the worst of it. Calls accumulated since the end of Q3 have been mostly liquidated which lead to massive selling by MM's. Today I'm seeing IV crush not seen since March of last year. Now we go where macros go, until the street starts looking at TSLA more favorably. This also looks like a buyable bottom for investors looking to accumulate.

I continue to believe this flash crash has little to do with the ER call. Every party has an end and the late 2021 party ended today.

 

[Knightshade]

Happy to hear you can get this for a reasonable price for the M3 and MY.

AFAIK you can not get it on the 3.

You couldn't initially on the Y either but it did get added there- still not available on 3 last I knew.

 

[StealthP3D]

Amazing, isn't it?

Question for old-timers. How similar is this week compared to the dark days of 2014-2019? I was an investor then, but had a much smaller position and didn't hang out here (I know, I know).

How can sentiment be THIS BAD? Is Wall Street that short-sighted? Is this the time to leverage up by trading shares for LEAPs? I don't do margin, thank goodness.

My opinion is this won't be a long-lasting dip due to the fact the financials are actually so mind-blowingly good and there is really nothing that points to that changing, even in a recession. In other words, this downturn is fundamentally different than what happened to TSLA investor sentiment during the years before profitability.

The wildcard is the overall valuation of stocks. They do undergo a re-pricing from time to time after a long period of bullishness. But there is no way to tell if this re-pricing has more 'stickiness' than a typical correction based on worries about the economy, interest rates, valuations, etc. What that means is the proper course for a Tesla long is to ride out any market variations. They are normal and are impossible to time with any accuracy. This could turn around on a moment's notice or it could drag on and get worse over the next 6 months to 2 years. In my opinion 2 years is a very, very low probability event because market re-pricings have accelerated timelines these days. And Tesla is a unique case in that they are fundamentally much stronger than almost any company in history. That said, this possibility, no matter how small, is the reason I recommend investors do not deploy money they will need within the next two years. This prevents having to withdraw money from the market when valuations are in the gutter.

Given specifics surrounding Tesla, the strength of their growth, the lack of competition, the relative value of shares right now, etc, investors with a higher risk tolerance could perhaps reduce that to one year. Tesla could 'outgrow' a crappy market that had longevity simply through rapid growth of revenues and earnings. I would be more fearful of missing outstanding appreciation than fear of going through a two-year period that was flat or down.

These things can't be predicted. Relax, live life, have fun, be productive.

 

[woodisgood]

I think some people think they are riding a horse, and the horse gives a **** whether the ride is comfortable.

Newsflash: It’s a dragon, just be glad you’re allowed on its back at all.

 

[ZeApelido]

Today’s wordle puzzle:

 

[MABMAB]

My opinion is this won't be a long-lasting dip due to the fact the financials are actually so mind-blowingly good and there is really nothing that points to that changing, even in a recession. In other words, this downturn is fundamentally different than what happened to TSLA investor sentiment during the years before profitability.

The wildcard is the overall valuation of stocks. They do undergo a re-pricing from time to time after a long period of bullishness. But there is no way to tell if this re-pricing has more 'stickiness' than a typical correction based on worries about the economy, interest rates, valuations, etc. What that means is the proper course for a Tesla long is to ride out any market variations. They are normal and are impossible to time with any accuracy. This could turn around on a moment's notice or it could drag on and get worse over the next 6 months to 2 years. In my opinion 2 years is a very, very low probability event because market re-pricings have accelerated timelines these days. And Tesla is a unique case in that they are fundamentally much stronger than almost any company in history. That said, this possibility, no matter how small, is the reason I recommend investors do not deploy money they will need within the next two years. This prevents having to withdraw money from the market when valuations are in the gutter.

Given specifics surrounding Tesla, the strength of their growth, the lack of competition, the relative value of shares right now, etc, investors with a higher risk tolerance could perhaps reduce that to one year. Tesla could 'outgrow' a crappy market that had longevity simply through rapid growth of revenues and earnings. I would be more fearful of missing outstanding appreciation than fear of going through a two-year period that was flat or down.

These things can't be predicted. Relax, live life, have fun, be productive.

ceteris paribus, yes.

Macro situation strange right now though.

 

[dm28997]

AFAIK you can not get it on the 3.

You couldn't initially on the Y either but it did get added there- still not available on 3 last I knew.

Thanks. Maybe an add on ?

 

[Ogre]

But not on conference calls. He was so slow and thoughtful & then got distracted mid-sentence again. I would have loved to hear more from the other guys. Short, concise, things that analysts can copy/paste in their letters to investors. Calls are not the place for tangents in what could be. If you cannot answer a question in 1 Sentence, refer to someone else.

Musk said he would only be on calls when it’s important.

He was there to announce the delay/ new timeline on the vehicles. It was a bummer, but it’s good to hear it from him direct rather than letting one of his lieutenants do it for him. Maybe he should have just done that and left.

Musk is thinking 2-10 years out, not about what the next quarter looks like. Analysts and a lot of investors want to hear about next quarter not 2025-2030. People talk about loving long term thinking, but reward short term talk.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nice! This type of thinking about constructive criticism is unsettling. Sorry to have upset you for thinking as someone other than an ultra bull.

It’s not constructive criticism. That’s the point. I’ve been here longer than you. You’re not the first, nor will you or anyone else in a tizzy, be the last to think they know better what Elon should or should not do, what he should or should not say.

At best it’s . This man, this company, this bunch of crooked suits is what you signed up for. Sorry, not sorry, it doesn’t fit your temperament or personality. Get over it or move on because I assure you history repeats in a few months.

Personally, I think you’re a funny guy. But you’re way, way too emotional right now along with a bunch of others. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose. Learned that lesson at 15 years old.

 

[Ogre]

3. Options gambling is dangerous.
4. You did not 'lose' anything unless you bought and sold the stock at loss.

I will very likely lose quite a bit in March if things don’t turn. Mostly because of point 3. Also… as with every bad turn in the market, a bad turn is also an opportunity. (Unless you really screw up!).

But I’m an adult and thus recognize that I did something silly, that’s not Musk‘s fault.

 

[mongo]

Are you aware of any ICE vehicles that have redundent controls systems for all safety related mechanicals (brakes, steering, electrical)?

Tesla requires that as a minimum standard for any FSD-capable vehicle. Yep, Tesla has shipped those on all their cars build since Oct 2016. Meanwhile, ICE is melting...

To your point, few cars of any type have fully redundant "by-wire" control systems.

However, pretty much all ICE have redundant safety systems.
Brake systems have dual master cylinders and parking brake if the service brakes fail.
Lights are dual feed diagonally with fail-on brake circuits.
Steering is manual if the power rack fails. (Mechanical failures are single point all over the place)

 

[thx1139]

Musk said he would only be on calls when it’s important.

He was there to announce the delay/ new timeline on the vehicles. It was a bummer, but it’s good to hear it from him direct rather than letting one of his lieutenants do it for him. Maybe he should have just done that and left.

Musk is thinking 2-10 years out, not about what the next quarter looks like. Analysts and a lot of investors want to hear about next quarter not 2025-2030. People talk about loving long term thinking, but reward short term talk.

We didnt need to know CT was officially pushed to 2023. 25K as a future product is still just that. I really think Elon didnt like not being in the spot light with the Q3 call. Especially since it went so well.

 

[JRP3]

cars are there, tent is there ... just matter of time

I see mud and tents, that's crack for TSLAQ.

 

[JRP3]

Thanks. Maybe an add on ?

I don't think the 3 has the space.

 

[Cherry Wine]

In term of delta hedging selling, it looks to me like we've seen the worst of it. Calls accumulated since the end of Q3 have been mostly liquidated which lead to massive selling by MM's. Today I'm seeing IV crush not seen since March of last year. Now we go where macros go, until the street starts looking at TSLA more favorably. This also looks like a buyable bottom for investors looking to accumulate.

I continue to believe this flash crash has little to do with the ER call. Every party has an end and the late 2021 party ended today.

VIX down 10 points from Monday highs to 28 and change a big part of the IV crush. Right now I'd say it looks like the bulls may just win this tussle and keep the bull market going a little longer, at least until Putin invades Ukraine.

 

[MABMAB]

4680 entering production is under appreciated right now.
I don't see anyone excited about this.
It is a better product: range, longevity, power, charge time, costs. Nobody else has this product.
It is the start of a long march of change.
The TSLA talking heads are missing out on this, perhaps adding to the panic and uncertainty.
Who are the thought leaders in the TSLA parasite parade? Gary Black, Dave Lee, Maurer? ANyone of them focusing on this?
The future is here, it is just not widely distributed.

 

[Lessmog]

wheres @lycanthorpe ? Dr Stupid ? Belgian Beer Guy
(I was out a mth myself )

He got shy a few weeks ago and deleted most of his online exposure, but he tells me he is OK otherwise. Or, that was some days ago.
Some of us did get a bit worried.

 

[MABMAB]

Hey yo, 4680 in production!