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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Dave really should get off of Elon's back with these questions. In what world is he expecting Elon, or any CEO of any company, to reveal so much inside info to the public? These questions are nothing but distracting and idiotic.
These questions come from a place of inspiration. No one cares what other CEOs are thinking because most are bean counters. But when you have a Steve Jobs or Elon Musk, it's best to extract as much as they are willing to share as the information may drive humanity forward.
 
Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers (IB) interview on CNBC:

His Points:
- Tesla is the biggest holding for his customers
- These investors didn't sell even though Tesla was down more than 10% for the month
- Many held for years and have huge gains and don't want to sell for a very very long time, like the next 10 years
- They gave reasons: Elon can get the brightest engineers, Tesla developing other techs such as robots.
- Option volumes are just incredible.
- (1:50 mark) Many IB customers who did well during well during these uncomfortable times are those that focused on company specific events and used vertical options spreads.
- Many option trading customers changed from simple options to spreads to limit risks (and profits) and working out extremely well for more and more customers.

 
(11:03 a.m. Mon, Jan 31, 2022)

To my (non-technical) eye, looks like Bulls are making a run at the 10-day Moving Average ($934.97 atm). Not advice!

Cheers!

Lol, today's Close missed the MA(10) by exactly TWENTY-NINE CENTS. Wedgies! So predictable, lol.

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2022-01-31.16-15.50.png


Cheers to the Longs!
 
Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers (IB) interview on CNBC:

His Points:
- Tesla is the biggest holding for his customers
- These investors didn't sell even though Tesla was down more than 10% for the month
- Many held for years and have huge gains that don't want to sell for a very very long time, like the next 10 years
- They gave reasons: Elon can get the brightest engineers, Tesla developing other techs such as robots.
- Option volumes are just incredible.
- (1:50 mark) Many IB customers who did well during well during these uncomfortable times are those that focused on company specific events and used vertical options spreads.
- Many option trading customers changed from simple options to spreads to limit risks (and profits) and working out extremely well for more and more customers.

Thomas Peterffy learns this base on his IB data. People have been calling us cult for a decade now. ;)
 
And I guess if the tasks I need my bots to do are non standard, I could also rent Dojo time for private lessons.
Going to have to have some parental controls on the DoJo button. Grandson got grounded for “acquiring coins/tokens on Roblox” without realizing it was automagically charging his uncle’s credit card. Back on topic, the concept of an app store is amazing from a profit potential.
 
Quick note I didn't see called out here:

There was this blurb about Karpathy posting some Tesla AI roles in his team. The bit that caught my attention was that Tesla Bot was described as an AI platform. This sent all sorts of bells ringing in my head. This may be very familiar for the "Product" people, but for those that are not familiar, a Tesla Bot platform implies an iPhone like capability where other developers can code the bot to do specific things, and sell those capabilities via an app store. And tesla will take a cut of the revenue.

Of course Tesla will have its own apps for the bot, and open source some reference implementations. And there will also be a digital model of the bot and a hundreds of thousands of stochastically generated digital environments in which other developers can train the bot to do useful stuff. Like entertaining your kid with a game or rock paper scissors, or pick up toys, or fold the laundry, etc. The complexity can ramp up over time. And the guts can be modular and upgraded.

This is one of those things that will have massive network effects where a critical mass of consumers and developers come together, and when that happens it becomes almost impossible for a newcomer to unseat the incumbent. Again like the appstore. At some point an Android equivalent may come along, but I am not sure if anyone is even thinking about it.

Having thought about Optimus Prime for a few days I think there are two key things that need to happen for it to be a success:

1. a small number of applications with limited scope but which can be replicated to millions of units.

2. the ability for ordinary people who are not machine learning experts to train the bot.

For example a bot pet (robo-dog) for the elderly.

Having a pet (particularly dogs) is well know to have benefits for elderly people, taking them for walks gives them regular exercise, looking after them a sense of responsibility for something dependent on them and companionship for seniors who are often on their own for long periods of time. Seeing-eye and assistance dogs help those with sight problems and those with mobility issues.

But pets are not without problems, I know several elderly people who have given up keeping pets when looking after them became too difficult, or when a pet died to considerable emotional distress and was not replaced, or when the cost of looking after a pet became too much. Pets also have considerable adverse environmental consequences.

A solution could be robo-dog, it is a limited scope application, with potentially hundreds of millions of units world-wide. They needs to be able to navigate house, street and field environments, obey simple commands and react to their owner's emotional and behavior queues, they need a personality. Being able to be trained by their owners and given specific abilites (from OTA updates) for new skills and tricks allows them to become more useful over time.
 
Elon has a final tranche of his 2012 CEO comp. plan available in August if Tesla can average 30% gross margins on a TTM basis.

As I've been saying here for months, that's why Tesla's #2 goal for 2022H1 will be MARGINS (#1 Goal is always growth, haha).

I think that makes a stock split unlikely before Elon's shares vest and he can pay the income taxes (split drives SP to spike; costs more in tax).
Didn't someone do the math on this on the shares he just vested and sold?

As I remember the tax goes up with a higher SP but so does the price he gets for the shares he sells to pay the tax. What the SP is doesn't matter much for how many shares he has to sell.
 
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Hadn’t seen this one.

A cynical me might suggest this helps explain why Cybertruck Is delayed since that would materially impact margins negatively.
The plan expires in August, so Elon gets it at the last possible moment if Q1 and Q2 (* see below) post 30%+ margins. Cybertruck timing was likely never a factor, even with original plan.

Elon has a final tranche of his 2012 CEO comp. plan available in August if Tesla can average 30% gross margins on a TTM basis.

As I've been saying here for months, that's why Tesla's #2 goal for 2022H1 will be MARGINS (#1 Goal is always growth, haha).

I think that makes a stock split unlikely before Elon's shares vest and he can pay the income taxes (split drives SP to spike; costs more in tax).
*Exact wording: "Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters" so not TTM, and also assuming it's being applied to the automotive sector only including carbon credits.
Given this award is 1/3 the size of a 2018 tranche and Elon being Elon, I doubt it is a factor in the business decisions.
Classic thread: The 2012 CEO grant
 
These questions come from a place of inspiration. No one cares what other CEOs are thinking because most are bean counters. But when you have a Steve Jobs or Elon Musk, it's best to extract as much as they are willing to share as the information may drive humanity forward.

I'd rather Elon focuses on Tesla's business, not to spend time to fulfill a random stock holder's curiosity. Yes, it's Tesla's achievements as a business, not these distracting questions, that will drive humanity forward.
 
Quick note I didn't see called out here:

There was this blurb about Karpathy posting some Tesla AI roles in his team. The bit that caught my attention was that Tesla Bot was described as an AI platform. This sent all sorts of bells ringing in my head. This may be very familiar for the "Product" people, but for those that are not familiar, a Tesla Bot platform implies an iPhone like capability where other developers can code the bot to do specific things, and sell those capabilities via an app store. And tesla will take a cut of the revenue.

Of course Tesla will have its own apps for the bot, and open source some reference implementations. And there will also be a digital model of the bot and a hundreds of thousands of stochastically generated digital environments in which other developers can train the bot to do useful stuff. Like entertaining your kid with a game or rock paper scissors, or pick up toys, or fold the laundry, etc. The complexity can ramp up over time. And the guts can be modular and upgraded.

This is one of those things that will have massive network effects where a critical mass of consumers and developers come together, and when that happens it becomes almost impossible for a newcomer to unseat the incumbent. Again like the appstore. At some point an Android equivalent may come along, but I am not sure if anyone is even thinking about it.
I like the way you think!

Although what you say above may indeed turn out to be true, I think the “AI Platform“ terminology used above is more likely to be describing a platform that Tesla itself will use to build multiple different products. That being FSD in cars, Optimus OS, Tesla vision recognition as a service etc (basically any product Tesla will make in future that uses AI vision). Tesla home security cameras with Vision AI would be pretty good I imagine, especially when paired with Optimus.

Platform can be for BOTH its own products, and as a platfrom for 3rd party products to build on top of.

Good example of this dual use case is iOS from Apple - Apple itself uses iOS as a platform for nearly all of its hardware product lines (iPhone, iPad, Watch, AppleTV, Homepod, upcoming AR glasses etc - and iOS was born from OS X, now called MacOS, which powers the Mac), and it is also of course the basis for 3rd party apps running on those products.
 
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Elon has a final tranche of his 2012 CEO comp. plan available in August if Tesla can average 30% gross margins on a TTM basis.

As I've been saying here for months, that's why Tesla's #2 goal for 2022H1 will be MARGINS (#1 Goal is always growth, haha).

I think that makes a stock split unlikely before Elon's shares vest and he can pay the income taxes (split drives SP to spike; costs more in tax).

I think Elon is completely uninterested in the share price. He pays the same amount (in shares) for income taxes no matter what the share price.

He probably would prefer a slow steady rise in share price as that makes employee stock options more predictable, a split helps employee stock option grants and execise.
 
The down days are not for being miserable but for buying more shares. I'm serious.

If I've got time later I'll post a nice little down day story
I recently got my 2 daughters investing in Tesla. I gave christmas money to one, and birthday money to the other. Only enough to buy a handful of shares (literally). They have decent jobs but only earn enough to pay the bills, not save. I showed them how to open a broker account, transfer the money in and how to set a limit order. They liked being Tesla shareholders and its nice that they now had a personal interest in this company that their Dad keeps banging on about.

And then came last week.

I always buy Tesla on the dips. Always have, always will. And last week was one BIG dip. I was about to buy more when I suddenly thought, why not give them the money so they can buy more rather than me? To be honest I have quite enough already.

They were thrilled, because it was so unexpected. No christmas, no birthday, completely out of the blue. A selection of the messages from them:

"Dad this is so exciting, you're the best"
"What do you think I should set the limit at?"
"I got them - weeeeeeeeeeeee!"
"Hey Dad I'm the Wolf of Wall Street"

Best Dad in the world status secured I think. And without the dip none of it would have happened.

p.s. the price went down further so I couldn't resist buying a few more for myself :)