Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WADan]

“ So far I have been incorrect the entire time regarding TSLA and everyone who has been invested has been correct. Time and time again TSLA has risen to the challenge and proved the naysayers wrong. My only quip with TSLA has been the valuation but that hasn't mattered to the market”

Tesla: The Stock Could Fall By Another -30% (NASDAQ:TSLA)

To my uneducated opinion, he’s not entirely unfair, so I certainly would love to hear the counter arguments (don’t shoot me as I am a fanboy). Thanks!

 

[adiggs]

It’s hard for me to believe that an honest and intelligent journalist, in the course of trying to investigate the company‘s ongoings and the bull and bear communities for perspective, doesn’t come around to be a fan (or shareholder) themselves. Seems like you‘d need to be biased toward one of many disrupted industries or just a pretty sad, aggrieved person not to.

One can be a fan of something, and still be an honest / intelligent journalist about the topic as well.

In fact its a pretty important component of good investing - seeing something that you like for whatever reason, while still being able to see the warts, and make a balancing decision between the two.

 

[MC3OZ]

Gali and Jordan talking about the new cell, I just started watching it and it's over an hour long so no summary yet.

I watched about 45 mins... nothing overly exciting, but IMO Gali said one very interesting thing...

Something along the lines of his source said Kato Rd production in January matched all of production for the previous year.

A fairly conservative estimate would be Kato Rd producing 1/2 Million cells in Jan, enough for 500 cars.

Austin seems to be around 10X Kato Rd, and I would expect some Austin lines to be ramping in Q2.

I also think they probably find a way to 2X the line speed over the course of 2022.
That would put production at 11,000 cars per month in Q4, 33,000 for the quarter.

After that they might be able to 2X the line speed every 6 months.. That would mean Q4 2023 has a rate of around 125,000 Model Y per quarter.

Of course these are wild guesses, but that is also kind of how I expect the ramp to go.

My point there is don't be discouraged if it starts slow, it only takes a few doublings of the production rate, to get to good numbers.

 

[UncaNed]

“ So far I have been incorrect the entire time regarding TSLA and everyone who has been invested has been correct. Time and time again TSLA has risen to the challenge and proved the naysayers wrong. My only quip with TSLA has been the valuation but that hasn't mattered to the market”

Tesla: The Stock Could Fall By Another -30% (NASDAQ:TSLA)

To my uneducated opinion, he’s not entirely unfair, so I certainly would love to hear the counter arguments (don’t shoot me as I am a fanboy). Thanks!

Warning - that link is to Seeking Alpa

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

“ So far I have been incorrect the entire time regarding TSLA and everyone who has been invested has been correct. Time and time again TSLA has risen to the challenge and proved the naysayers wrong. My only quip with TSLA has been the valuation but that hasn't mattered to the market”

Tesla: The Stock Could Fall By Another -30% (NASDAQ:TSLA)

To my uneducated opinion, he’s not entirely unfair, so I certainly would love to hear the counter arguments (don’t shoot me as I am a fanboy). Thanks!

what's wrong w/ valuation? too low imo
Forward P/E is under 50 right?
very few pieces(mostly, or all crap.) on SA are worthy of looking at unless you want to lose money

if TSLA is not a tech company yet, imagine how much $ they will make when they actually sell tech and energy products. they will destroy the auto industry first, then other tech perhaps?

Tesla is also a factory design company... badass factories too. how is that priced?

 

[adiggs]

... and ooh! buy a FAB (ymmv).

Please no - please don't restart that discussion

 

[woodisgood]

One can be a fan of something, and still be an honest / intelligent journalist about the topic as well.

In fact its a pretty important component of good investing - seeing something that you like for whatever reason, while still being able to see the warts, and make a balancing decision between the two.

Absolutely. I just meant that if one were to do the real job of a journalist and learn as much as possible about Tesla, how could you not root (haha, see what I did there?) for the company, warts and all?

Most detractors/skeptics that I’ve met in real life (i.e., not internet trolls) are simply uninformed/ignorant, and willing to make some heavy assumptions based on a few facts that certain media sources try to spin and amplify.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fun seeing noted Tesla mega bull and totally a shareholder Taylor Organ and CNBC's most honest reporter Lora K doing their unbiased review of FSD Beta. Good times.

Absolutely. I just meant that if one were to do the real job of a journalist and learn as much as possible about Tesla, how could you not root (haha, see what I did there?) for the company, warts and all?

A journalist's job is not to spread the truth, but to bring in eyeballs and ad revenue.

 

[Knightshade]

No, its a wheel/tyre package and its been there since day 1

The wording definitely has changed since Day 1.

originally it mentioned wheels/tires... then, the day after they announced the 20k brake upgrade existed, the wording changed to "paid hardware" without any specifics.


Quite a few early S buyers appear unhappy about it too- though it remains unclear how it'll turn out.

Tesla Model S Plaid Now Requires ‘Paid Hardware Upgrades’ to Hit 200 mph Top Speed - TeslaNorth.com

Update March 12, 2023: Looks like Tesla's Carbon Ceramic Brake Kit for the Model S Plaid unlocks the vehicle's top speed, as shown in this YouTube video after a driver was able to review it thanks to Tesla Belgium. The Tesla Model S Plaid launched with an advertised top speed of 200 mph, but...

teslanorth.com

 

[ZeApelido]

CNBC released an FSD video with noted troll and trust fund kid Taylor Ogan.

Just one example of his bias - at 7:35 he claims the car slams on the brakes. I checked the speed on the screen.

It dropped from 13 mph to 9 mph.

 

[Ohmster]

CNBC released an FSD video with noted troll and trust fund kid Taylor Ogan.

Just one example of his bias - at 7:35 he claims the car slams on the brakes. I checked the speed on the screen.

It dropped from 13 mph to 9 mph.

Jeeeeeeasssus. I barely made it to 7:35. Why is my doofus meter pegging every time I see one of these clowns?

 

[mltv]

CNBC released an FSD video with noted troll and trust fund kid Taylor Ogan.

Just one example of his bias - at 7:35 he claims the car slams on the brakes. I checked the speed on the screen.

It dropped from 13 mph to 9 mph.

This is the first video in a while that has me fuming. Complete hit piece.

 

[juanmedina]

CNBC released an FSD video with noted troll and trust fund kid Taylor Ogan.

Just one example of his bias - at 7:35 he claims the car slams on the brakes. I checked the speed on the screen.

It dropped from 13 mph to 9 mph.

They are also all on 10.8 which was a really bad update from my experience. 10.9 is night and day and works realky and I haven't gotten 10.10 but I heard is not so great .

Dave reaction to the video is really good:

For some reason on board monitoring has not been enable on the refreshed Model S at least from my experience.

 

[JRP3]

*Edit: Never mind, I'm an idiot.

Has something changed in Texas? It seems as if people are picking up their cars in the state.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Has something changed in Texas? It seems as if people are picking up their cars in the state.

Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

Your next door neighbor must have been very excited, for a little bit! Would have been really awesome if the neighbor had ordered the same config and they were both waiting :D

teslamotorsclub.com

Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

Your next door neighbor must have been very excited, for a little bit! Would have been really awesome if the neighbor had ordered the same config and they were both waiting :D

teslamotorsclub.com

Probably built in Fremont. Same as it’s always been.

edit: Technically the (online) sale is in California. Car is shipped to Texas. That’s legal.
Sales from Giga Austin will be different.

 

[jerry33]

Has something changed in Texas? It seems as if people are picking up their cars in the state.

Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

Your next door neighbor must have been very excited, for a little bit! Would have been really awesome if the neighbor had ordered the same config and they were both waiting :D

teslamotorsclub.com

Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

Your next door neighbor must have been very excited, for a little bit! Would have been really awesome if the neighbor had ordered the same config and they were both waiting :D

teslamotorsclub.com

People have always been picking up cars in Texas--ever since 2012. They just have to take the paperwork to the county tax office. Technically the cars are sold in California, but pickup has always been at the Service Centres (or they have been delivered to the purchaser's residence).

 

[JRP3]

Probably built in Fremont. Same as it’s always been.

Doh! Brain fart

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jonas just on CNBC. Big on Tesla in EV space. Not recommending GM or F as buys. Also promoting the " Muskonomy" and big proponent of the Boring Co. in particular. Pretty good stuff.

It's unlikely you'll profit off of GM and Ford this year, says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas | CNBC on Youtube (4 hrs ago)

 

[daniel]

Hmmm. You write, "I have no way at all of knowing what it should be worth."

I have a hard time understanding that sentiment and can only conclude you have yet to watch any of SMR or Rob Mauer's hundreds of YT videos; see "Solving the Money Problem" and "Tesla Daily Podcast."

May I please be blunt? You need to get smarter on TSLA and Tesla STAT as your lack of knowledge has likely cost you dearly, and will do so again, as you "sold some of my shares way back when . . . " .

I plead guilty to not watching "hundreds of YouTube videos" in what would certainly be a futile attempt to understand the vagaries of the market. I am not a "trader." My real investments are safe mutual funds that give me a more than comfortable retirement. I bought a few shares of TSLA after I bought my Roadster in 2011 because I liked the car and wanted to be a part of the company. I never intended to sell any of them and I never expected them to be worth what they are. I'd have been as happy as a clam if they'd stayed around $100 pre-split. I'd have felt like I made a good "investment" but they wouldn't be worth enough to bother thinking of all that money sitting on the table. The shares I sold repaid my entire investment in TSLA and SCTY about sixteen-fold, and still left me with so many shares that I'm sitting on a scary amount of unrealized gain.

I'm an old man. If I never sell the shares I'll never get more benefit out of them than what I got for the shares I sold. I actually think selling them was a good move: If the company goes bankrupt tomorrow I made sixteen times my investment. And I still have plenty of shares.

Tesla makes the best cars in the world. I think the company is going to succeed. But I also know that the market is fickle. When you're young you invest for growth. When you're old you invest for income. I'm old and TSLA pays no income. I just wish I had the strength of character to stop looking at the stock price because for the near term, I'm not going to sell and I'm not going to buy any more. I'm not HODLing, but I'm holding for now.

 

[SmokyPeat]

It's unlikely you'll profit off of GM and Ford this year, says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas | CNBC on Youtube (4 hrs ago)

That was great. Seeing the "Muskonomy" graphic on CNBC lightened my spirits.