My interpretation of Alex's comments are that the supplier would be obligated to perform the contract even if they are not allowed to take water from their catchment - e.g. they'd have to truck it in from the next state over to supply Tesla.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
On the other hand ...
Tesla's attorneys' mission is to accelerate the Market's transition to sustainable trading practices.
On the other hand ...
Tesla's attorneys' mission is to accelerate the Market's transition to sustainable trading practices.
hey now! right on @chronopublish
anyone around long enough knows the difference between you, and the aforementioned algae that results from still price action. your frequency will not be correlated with those animals in my book.
we’re near peak lunacy.
yes im hurting as much as nay of you, pound for pound.
it’s still a long game. hang in there everyone. think may 2019. that’s what i’m thinking. tell me i’m wrong, and why.
yes im hurting as much as nay of you, pound for pound.
it’s still a long game. hang in there everyone. think may 2019. that’s what i’m thinking. tell me i’m wrong, and why.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I just wish I had some dry powder or one of those couches all you guys seem to have! No, unfortunately I saw multiple buying opportunities way too early.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I know with gasoline already above $5/gallon here in California and it already headed straight up, the last few days my Tesla is becoming the popular choice of everyone in my house. I have to believe these oil prices are going to be the tipping point for many considering EVs,but on the proverbial fence. Which EV company is best suited to handle an increase in demand?
Tesla's order backlog will soon be sold out through 2022, and there is still no hide nor hair of Austin and Berlin coming online soon. So....none of them?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Q: How do you become a Millionaire in the Stock Market?
A: Start with $2M, then use MARGIN. 
Cheers!
Where in the world is the notion of an Austin delay coming from?
Coming online soon? Austin is already producing.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Deep out-of-the-money call options are SUPER CHEAP now, in my non-professional opinion.
For instance, calls with strike $2475 for 17 Mar 2023 expiration are only $8 today.
I think this is nuts, because with Tesla's ridiculous 2022 growth looming, I would not be surprised if we're holding $3000+ TSLA shares by this time next year.
My middle expectation of annualized EBIT for Q4 '22 is $30-35B. So, a $3k+ share price would require only about a 100 P/EBIT ratio, which isn't crazy for a company selling a couple million widgets per year for $20k profit each while exponentially growing volume 80% annually.
My bull case is TSLA = $4k by Mar '23 with $40B annualized Q4 '22 EBIT.
$3k share price would give about 60x return on investment; $4k about 200x. All in a 13-month timeframe.
Plus, this same time period looks poised to yield excellent FSD progress, because of Dojo coming online, an influx of fresh AI engineering talent following AI day, and an exponentially expanding army of beta testers gathering training data. If visible FSD improvements finally make the robotaxi dream more believable for investors and the roof is blown off the stock price, then these dirt cheap call options could plausibly return 300x. This is much less likely, but it's probable enough to add to the value of the option.
I don't know if I'm missing something major, or if the market is just being absurdly irrational with this options pricing.
For instance, calls with strike $2475 for 17 Mar 2023 expiration are only $8 today.
I think this is nuts, because with Tesla's ridiculous 2022 growth looming, I would not be surprised if we're holding $3000+ TSLA shares by this time next year.
My middle expectation of annualized EBIT for Q4 '22 is $30-35B. So, a $3k+ share price would require only about a 100 P/EBIT ratio, which isn't crazy for a company selling a couple million widgets per year for $20k profit each while exponentially growing volume 80% annually.
My bull case is TSLA = $4k by Mar '23 with $40B annualized Q4 '22 EBIT.
$3k share price would give about 60x return on investment; $4k about 200x. All in a 13-month timeframe.
Plus, this same time period looks poised to yield excellent FSD progress, because of Dojo coming online, an influx of fresh AI engineering talent following AI day, and an exponentially expanding army of beta testers gathering training data. If visible FSD improvements finally make the robotaxi dream more believable for investors and the roof is blown off the stock price, then these dirt cheap call options could plausibly return 300x. This is much less likely, but it's probable enough to add to the value of the option.
I don't know if I'm missing something major, or if the market is just being absurdly irrational with this options pricing.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I realize you are enjoying wallowing in your current misery, but you are ignoring Telsa's guidance which was given less than 4 weeks ago: the company will COMFORTABLY increase production by more than 50% in 2022 even WITHOUT Austin or Berlin.
Yes, both Fremont and Shanghai are positioned to increase production substantially in 2022.
Again, Tesla 2022 production is chip-supply constrained. Opening new factories WILL NOT increase the supply of chips, nor the number of total cars that Tesla is able to build in 2022. The limiting factor is chip supply, not factories.
All that opening new factories can affect in 2022 is to trade gross margin (increased operating overhead) for a faster production ramp in 2023, once supply constraints begin to ease. I trust Tesla Management to make the best choice.
Cheers!
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Russian stock exchange index currently down 45%…TODAY.
So all things considered, could be worse things to be than a TSLA investor at the moment.
So all things considered, could be worse things to be than a TSLA investor at the moment.
Normally I might agree, but the macro environment is the scariest I’ve seen since I started investulating 4 years ago. March ‘23 is right around the corner relatively speaking. I’m looking at the right time to re-buy my beloved LEAPS at a low, often re-checking the Option Chain, as if reasonably priced January 2026 LEAPS are gonna miraculously appear because I’m a huge fan of owning the latest-expiration LEAPS I can buy in order to more likely bridge over the timespan of a recession or crash. I’m not smart enough to Delta hedge with those complicated call-spread-put-wheel thingies some of you guys do, so I rely on my Neanderthal- level understanding and a lot of conservative caution.
Perhaps THAT'S the major thing you might be missing, @Gigapress .
Aaaand, I gotta say, many thanks to our beloved MODS, and let's not forget to tip our cashiers, boys and girls!
What was the S&P500 inclusion price? $695 ?
Looks in play judging by premarket trade (saw $710 for a minute there)
Looks in play judging by premarket trade (saw $710 for a minute there)
A "key reversal" is the only thing I know of. Otherwise, you just have to have the guts to buy in when you think think the value is too good not too.
A key reversal is when you have a massive drop in the share price then it bounces back and actually closes above the opening price. From what I see in the premarket, it won't shock me if we have a key reversal today. But then, there's really nothing that would shock me today.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
IMO selling now is not a good idea. Never know when things will reverse, and in events like this they can reverse quickly and violently.
I also think following the ticker closely now is not good for the soul either.
We all know this is temporary. For how long, we don’t know. But we know it’s temporary. I suggest not following the price for awhile to maintain your sanity.
I also think following the ticker closely now is not good for the soul either.
We all know this is temporary. For how long, we don’t know. But we know it’s temporary. I suggest not following the price for awhile to maintain your sanity.
In the mean time, while we're waiting for buyers to step back in, Tesla is still executing.
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