Tesla lost 60% during Covid crisis. 2009 was financial crisis - can understand a 60% drawdown then. Now economy is strong with no challenges with financial systems.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don't care at all about GM, I just like the new form factors and market opportunities that EV technology is enabling. No one buying these sorts of vehicles gives a crap about aerodynamics or acceleration or top speed, they are just after a low cost, nimble, small EV.
It looks like we are close to bottom with regards NASDAQ correction in terms of number of days and % considering avg correction.
Yeah but it was 2009, no one had a job and liquidity was an issue when all the banks decided to stop lending money.
Also from 2008 to 2009, Apples net income only went from $6 billion to 8 billion. That's not bad by any means. But there's a fundamental difference, both in terms of growth and scale when you have Tesla already at $7.6 billion in net income for 2021 and going to $17+ billion in 2022.
The fact is Tesla at a much large scale of revenue and earnings than Apple and Amazon were during those times that those stocks so those massive 60% and 90% drawdowns.
Apple's revenue and net income from 2008 to 2009 went from 32 billion to 43 billion revenue and 6 billion to 8 billion net income.
Apple's situation was what I was pointing out in a earlier post. It took about 3 years for their Iphone business to grow enough in scale to really change the trajectory of revenue and earnings growth......which is why you saw both skyrocket the next year.....and guess what Apple was well above it's 2008 highs by 2010.
Both Tesla's revenue growth and earnings growth and the scale of both of those things dwarf what Apple was doing back in 2008-2009
I feel like wallstreet got it wrong here.
Tesla is having the largest tail wind they have ever seen in any time in history. Their competition is having supply chain issues, can't make enough EVs, and their ICE cars have this major headwind as gas prices hit 4 dollars/gallon.
The last time gas prices was this high, Hummer went out of business, SUVs sat on the lot, and the econobox Prius came to fame. Currently Tesla is facing the same tail wind and wallstreet sells off the stock and put their money into F or GM..lol.
Tesla is having the largest tail wind they have ever seen in any time in history. Their competition is having supply chain issues, can't make enough EVs, and their ICE cars have this major headwind as gas prices hit 4 dollars/gallon.
The last time gas prices was this high, Hummer went out of business, SUVs sat on the lot, and the econobox Prius came to fame. Currently Tesla is facing the same tail wind and wallstreet sells off the stock and put their money into F or GM..lol.
Yes and none of that impacted Apple, they were just dragged lower by the macro environment / market sentiment, but at a much higher rate than other stocks (sound familiar?)
The market narrative is very bleak at present:
- Inflation spike not seen in decades,
- spiking energy prices,
- rising fed rates,
- War in Europe,
- extended pandemic-related supply chain issues,
- new Pandemic variants,
- Crypto/NFT/Shitco bubble bursting
None of the above really impacts Tesla long term (and barely in the near term outside of parts supply issues) - but it has created a very negative market environment which as history shows takes out the recent high beta /. high flying stocks the hardest sometimes.
To be clear I do think the market is being irrational on TSLA, but that irrationality could last a day, a month, a quarter - no way to know when it stops.
To the long time Investors here who have more experience than I do. How do you determine you have seen Capitulation? When everyone who had to sell was forced to sell because of margin calls? When will wallstreet hedge funds think they have to lowest buying point and have grabbed all the shares from the retails at the lowest buying price?
Is there another way to determine capitulation on the chart than 2 massive down red days with everyone on Twitter saying they have sold because TSLA is going back to 400s?
I see a massive buying opportunity here if I had spare change, hedge fund managers must see the same thing I do?
How do they determinate we have reached capitulation day and tomorrow is massive buying day?
Is there another way to determine capitulation on the chart than 2 massive down red days with everyone on Twitter saying they have sold because TSLA is going back to 400s?
I see a massive buying opportunity here if I had spare change, hedge fund managers must see the same thing I do?
How do they determinate we have reached capitulation day and tomorrow is massive buying day?
I think you misunderstand what he meant by liquidity was an issue. It was an issue all around. Which means it was also an issue for investment banks, hedge funds, home loans, car loans, personal loans. All this led to a problem in the stock market because there was not much money on the sidelines to buy the dip. Which is why it took some 6 years for the market to go back up because no one had money to buy anything.
This is a big difference to today when a lot of funds actually derisked and sold earlier this year. A lot of funds also believed the market was over inflated late last year. There is a ton of money on the sidelines and a lot of liquidity from the money printer. The only people who have really lost money are the retail traders bag holding stocks down 80% from their tops.
Unless there is some kind of unseen problem I don't see us dropping more than the corona crash (33% Nasdaq, 34% Spy). Especially Spy because a lot of the drops in SPY were from airlines and banks.
So to anyone worried that wants to capitulate. I would argue we are past the halfway point. Nasdaq is already down 20%. If you want to sell out to try to time a bottom, there really isn't too much left to time. You are better off just riding it out until next year (NFA)
jhm
Well-Known Member
Historically, Tesla has traded range-bound for several years at a shot. It is possible that Tesla could stay in the $600 to $1200 range for several years. Fortunately, we've been here for more than a year already. Time served. The important thing to do is to accumulate shares cheap for the long-haul. That was the whole point of the Blind Faith thread. The market is sour. It's not going to pat you on the back and tell you what a great investor you are. Don't look for immediate validation. Just keep buying shares, blind and faithful.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Optimus will work in limited controlled environments, much less complex than FSD. Think repetitive factory work to start out.
Boston Dynamics has it pretty well figured out, Tesla just needs to add the brains.
Nobody knows, regardless of what they say
The reversal is gonna be steep, you will see it in the chart the next day
Timing the market is hard , so have a plan, ladder down and buy in tranches. Cheers
+ remember paper loss and gains are not real
Futures down more than 2% on news about Ukraine. I guess the reversal is not happening tomorrow
My guess is it does. Sell the rumor buy the news.
Good video about the state of 10.10:
cliffs:
* cnbs fud, the driver was causing the problems.
* 10.10 can do some very hard things and then struggle at some easy things
* driving is hard, so many edge cases that needs to be gathered, which Tesla are uniquely set up to do
* nhtsa ****ed up by requiring Tesla to drive different than humans.
cliffs:
* cnbs fud, the driver was causing the problems.
* 10.10 can do some very hard things and then struggle at some easy things
* driving is hard, so many edge cases that needs to be gathered, which Tesla are uniquely set up to do
* nhtsa ****ed up by requiring Tesla to drive different than humans.
At the point where I don't care any more. Market has lost it's mind between probable rate increases (like we haven't known that was coming due to inflation figures for the last year) and the Ukraine situation, the stars aren't aligned or the gods are maligned. Kick back, poor a glass of moonshine (I love TN!) and enjoy the show-while holding strong to perhaps strongest stock in the world medium-long term. Remember, less than a year ago we were in the mid $500 range. We're solid, the short term noise, FUD and temper tantrum from the political front-just doesn't matter. It just doesn't matter. Say it, it just doesn't matter (happened to catch Meatballs last night...that's stuck in my head). Kick back, take a drink and enjoy the s*** show. And...HODL.Awwww, look at the SP.
It is almost as if Elon might have peed in somebody's corn flakes and they are having a bit of a hissy.
Looking forward to the next chapter as this epic saga unfolds.
P.S. For anyone who is worried, keep in mind how, as long as the fundamentals of Tesla are intact and on-track, the SP is immaterial.
The company is solid, HODL!
High volume, and a long lower wick on the daily candle, indicating a big intra-day reversal, followed by a confirmation via higher closes on successive trading days.
By the way, I don't think we've seen capitulation at all. Especially not with Russia invading Ukraine as we speak. Futures are down bigtime. This will be an overhang over the entire market until it settles down. It could be weeks or longer.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I had a GTC +EXT buy order I just cancelled which was getting close to filling. I hope that was a mistake but I'm not feeling good about the next few days.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You mostly can't, not in advance anyway. Too many alternate futures to guess right consistently. One effective strategy is to buy in tranches on the way down, while always keep a little something in your back pocket for surprises.
Helps when you have a steady income separate from your investments, and when all your living expenses are covered. That gives you back the luxury of time to act when YOU choose, not when Wall St. comes (margin) calling. GLTA!
Cheers!
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
