It's like Covid 2.0. Travel stocks crashed hard core today. We are talking about double digit percent crashes.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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How TSLA is down anywhere near auto manufacturers that live and die by big Pickups and SUVs is beyond me. Looks like TSLA will end up down ~4% and Ford down ~5%. Gas prices will kill these big car sales and those are also the vehicles that the Fords and GMs require for profits.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA 1.07x NASDAQ-100
Welp that felt like a rough day since TSLA started so much higher, but reality is almost 1 to 1 with the Nasdaq. So that was overperforming day for TSLA.
Now just about those Feb China numbers
........I'm really hoping that they were able to build up supplies on site so that when production did get restarted, they were able to run at max production rates for the rest of Feb. That or they were running the factory more than they let on during chinese new year
Matching Nov's numbers would be really good. Beating Nov numbers would be make very bullish on Q1 P/D numbers being a huge blowout.
I guess I'll know how good or bad the number is based on whether TSLA is green or red in the pre-market hours when I wake up.
Now just about those Feb China numbers
........I'm really hoping that they were able to build up supplies on site so that when production did get restarted, they were able to run at max production rates for the rest of Feb. That or they were running the factory more than they let on during chinese new yearMatching Nov's numbers would be really good. Beating Nov numbers would be make very bullish on Q1 P/D numbers being a huge blowout.
I guess I'll know how good or bad the number is based on whether TSLA is green or red in the pre-market hours when I wake up.
I think the world is not worried about gas prices affecting F or Tesla's sales. Supply chain issues associated with the war is the main concern. Currently it's all about production and not demand.
I agree. The Stewart piece is also quite superficial, and I have seen the "Gaming Wall Street" also. What no such pieces really can do is describe how all this happened and what set the abuses in motion. Sadly, that requires studying the Roaring 20's, the Great Depression and the Glass-Steagall Act, which was itself designed to largely eliminate the abuses now rampant once again. Although the 'official' events were the 1999 Clinton signature to repeal Glass Steagall, the Ringell-Neal Act in 1994 set the stage for nationwide bank branches and created the gargantuan universal banking entities of today. Those made a mockery of any consumer protections and investment protections, since the regulatory process began to shrink and lose authority at the same time. All of that followed Bernie Madoff as NASDAQ chairman in 1990, which, with SEC acquiescence , began rule changes that really became massive once the enabling bank legislation happened. That made DTC a complicit part in the whole scene.
Sadly all of this was never understood by lawmakers or most market participants. By the time 2008 happened it became obvious, but still was ignored by decision makers. FWIW, I was there, advised two senior participants, but was told that I was too pessimistic along with my team. OTOH, we did have nearly a decade of lucrative work helping to cope with the failures and execute on several of the (in)famous midnight marriages.
There si large public record on all of this. Sadly, it is all so deeply arcane than nobody understood all of it and several of the most senior people never seemed to understand any of it. The internal functioning of the Depositary Trust Company, for example, is only understood by a handful of people, none of the senior executives. I spent more than a year there and know I have little idea of the details. The details are all that matters.
As Jon S said, paraphrasing, 'nobody understands this stuff...'
Tesla has actually held up a lot better than normal through this mess. Being down ~4% today (roughly equal with the Nasdaq) is pretty good all things considered. More than that, we keep see Tesla wanting to breakout. It has been rejected each time, but it keeps pushing up. Even today the push to 865 was quick and looked ready to go, only to be shot down by reality. When the macro environment clears up (and I don't think anybody really knows when that could happen), we should see Tesla be one the leaders in the rally.
Then they are thinking that when this ends in Ukraine things are going to go back to the way they were a couple weeks ago. Gas prices will not drop back that much when it is over the world will punish Putin for a long time no matter what. If Putin left tomorrow the punishment and gas prices will go on for a long time. Maybe not at the top prices, but above where they were.
If the war ends, a LOAD of risk and uncertainty is taken off the table..like WW3, nuclear war, and the existence of certain nations. That's when Tsla will skyrocket because people understand the implication of gas prices and how the world already passed the line in the sand when it comes to supporting Russian oil exports. Most sanctions on Russia will remain until a regime change or Russia agrees to pay for the damage while getting nothing in return. Their oil export even if it's not cut off will drop 30% like what happened to Iran.
The palladium supply chain hit should be the worst, and it specifically impacts ICE. Clearly looks like the market has not caught on.
Also not sure about this Neon . TSMC doesn't use Ukrainian Neon doesn't really mean anything. They supply like 1 or 2 processors per car. What about all the processors that control the seats? The wipers? The A/C unit? The lift gate? The charge port? There are so many chips on a Tesla that something is probably affected.
I truly think TSLA takes the leader role for the market this year and going forward.....for as long as gas prices are even remotely this high.
Tesla's products deflate energy prices for consumers, are items that a necessity for most consumers, and thus, they pretty much have unlimited demand. I mean hell, unless making the Model 2 gives Tesla faster production in terms of making each Model 2, Tesla should just stick with cranking out the 3/Y as much as possible right now.
I agree, but that is also exactly why different companies should be judged potentially vastly different.
The QQQs blew through the lower bollinger band today hard. Every time this has happened the past six months we
had a hard bounce. Market is so ugly, closing on the lows, one would think there is no way but down. Knowing Wall Street a bounce would take the form of an intraday reversal after cleaning out some more poor slobs in the AM.
We are primed for any bit of good news or even a pause in the unrelenting stream of bad news for a big move up short term. Today stank of margin and liquidation calls all day long. Only bright spot was Solar, which I admit I have a decent amount. Of course, with a few exceptions, they have all lost anywhere between 50 to 75 % over the past year, so whatever.
Here's to a catalyst for tomorrow! Roll them dice, baby!
had a hard bounce. Market is so ugly, closing on the lows, one would think there is no way but down. Knowing Wall Street a bounce would take the form of an intraday reversal after cleaning out some more poor slobs in the AM.
We are primed for any bit of good news or even a pause in the unrelenting stream of bad news for a big move up short term. Today stank of margin and liquidation calls all day long. Only bright spot was Solar, which I admit I have a decent amount. Of course, with a few exceptions, they have all lost anywhere between 50 to 75 % over the past year, so whatever.
Here's to a catalyst for tomorrow! Roll them dice, baby!
From what I've read, it really depends on if your chip supply is coming from overseas or from the US. The US chip makers are a lot more susceptible to Neon from the Ukraine. Pretty much all digging I've found has comments from overseas chip makers is that they have plenty of supply build of Neon and they don't source from Ukraine anyways. They've repeatedly have said they're not worried about the Ukraine situation
I agree. I think we're in a bear market now, so a sharp headfake rally on the day after the NDX officially closes in a bear market, just to take the next leg lower over the following few days, would not surprise me in the slightest.
Takes time to play out. Every company took a dump including Zoom, Shopify, Microsoft, and Google during the Covid crash even though Covid was such a money maker for all of those companies.
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