Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Update from latest email I get about UK car dealers' discount deals.

EVs much less discounted than ICE (this started in February's email) for Audi, VW and Mercedes. Hopefully this shows demand for EVs has shifted, so more demand for Tesla (and in UK, Tesla seem to have less of a wait time than others)

 

[15Peter20]

Presume this little opening dump is due to the price of nickel spiking. Not that it makes any sense whatsoever.

 

[henchman24]

Presume this little opening dump is due to the price of nickel spiking. Not that it makes any sense whatsoever.

The risk tolerance is basically zero right now... any spike in something that could cause problems, will cause some selling.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Bloomberg has a good article about nickel supplies and market. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

It's behind paywall, but essentially:

- Two types of nickel, Class I (99.8% pure, less common), and Class II (widely available from SE Asia)
- Russia produces ~ 1/3 of Class I, which is more relevant for EV batteries
- however, Class II can be processed into Class I using newer methods, with Chinese plants in Indonesia ramping up for this
- Lots of Class II coming to market in near future
- Market prices mostly influenced by small volumes of surplus product, not producer-supplier contracts which account for bulk of trade
- Nickel is not scarce and a supply boom is underway
- Prior price spikes have been followed by returns to more normal levels after a few weeks
- Bottom line - no need to panic

A Bloomberg headline (article behind a paywall) claims that there is a massive nickel short squeeze underway. I was able to get a small snippet using Reader View in Safari...

Nickel spiked briefly above $100,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange amid a short squeeze that’s embroiled a major Chinese bank and encouraged rule changes from one of the world’s top commodity exchanges.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Bloomberg has a good article about nickel supplies and market. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

It's behind paywall, but essentially:

- Two types of nickel, Class I (99.8% pure, less common), and Class II (widely available from SE Asia)
- Russia produces ~ 1/3 of Class I, which is more relevant for EV batteries
- however, Class II can be processed into Class I using newer methods, with Chinese plants in Indonesia ramping up for this
- Lots of Class II coming to market in near future
- Market prices mostly influenced by small volumes of surplus product, not producer-supplier contracts which account for bulk of trade
- Nickel is not scarce and a supply boom is underway
- Prior price spikes have been followed by returns to more normal levels after a few weeks
- Bottom line - no need to panic

 

[Doit]

A few talked about falling knife, here's my favorite paragraph of Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street:

Bottom fishing is a popular investor pastime, but it’s usually the fisherman who gets hooked. Trying to catch the bottom on a falling stock is like trying to catch a falling knife. It’s normally a good idea to wait until the knife hits the ground and sticks, then vibrates for a while and settles down before you try to grab it. Grabbing a rapidly falling stock results in painful surprises, because inevitably you grab it in the wrong place.

Has the knife settled yet? Or is it still vibrating or even not stick yet?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The risk tolerance is basically zero right now... any spike in something that could cause problems, will cause some selling.

I disagree. There's always a massive appetite for risk, so long as it's priced well.

All renewables plays are up 3-5% at the open and we see TSLA being held down yet again. The dam will break and we'll pop too, but this is clearly a hold-diwn situation.

 

[82bert]

A few talked about falling knife, here's my favorite paragraph of Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street:


Has the knife settled yet? Or is it still vibrating or even not stick yet?

No kidding. That’s great and all, but how does one know when the knife has finally settled in and is vibrating? It never looks like a falling knife when you first reach for it. It’s only after, when your palm is splayed open that you realize it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A few talked about falling knife, here's my favorite paragraph of Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street:


Has the knife settled yet? Or is it still vibrating or even not stick yet?

News? or more 'fill-the-gap' gamesmanship?

 

[henchman24]

I disagree. There's always a massive appetite for risk, so long as it's priced well.

All renewables plays are up 3-5% at the open and we see TSLA being held down yet again. The dam will break and we'll pop too, but this is clearly a hold-diwn situation.

Renewables are up because energy prices spiking will naturally cause demand to continue to flood in. Especially with wind having the PTC expire soon, this gives some clarity on future demand for investors. All energy is spiking right now...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

An actual interesting observation on CNBC! Not Tesla, but rather metals and mining. XME is down today. Bizarre.

I wonder if these guys see a more rapid exit for Putin on the horizon?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Renewables are up because energy prices spiking will naturally cause demand to continue to flood in. Especially with wind having the PTC expire soon, this gives some clarity on future demand for investors. All energy is spiking right now...

I would argue that behind *perhaps* Saudi Aramco, Tesla is the largest energy company in the world. It's also transition-focused rather than legacy. You'd think that might pop today.

I'm starting to think maybe vested legacy energy interests might be exerting influence over the TSLA share price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

XME is down today. Bizarre

Even more bizarre is the chart you posted shows XME up 4.93% in the past 5 days.

 

[henchman24]

I would argue that behind *perhaps* Saudi Aramco, Tesla is the largest energy company in the world. It's also transition-focused rather than legacy. You'd think that might pop today.

I'm starting to think maybe vested legacy energy interests might be exerting influence over the TSLA share price.

The market looks at Tesla as an automaker. We all know here it is BS and there is a larger aspect at play long-term, but to the market, Tesla is clearly an automaker. It makes sense considering how much revenue and profit come from the auto side of the business.

 

[larmor]

Nickel futures up another 100% tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501083189229596678

From January 2022, Tesla secured nickel all ready.

Tesla and Talon Metals Enter into Supply Agreement for Nickel - Talon Metals Corp

News ReleaseTSX:TLO TESLA AND TALON METALS ENTER INTO SUPPLY AGREEMENT FOR NICKEL Talon Metals has entered into an agreement to supply Tesla with nickel from the Tamarack Project in central Minnesota Tamarack, Minnesota/Road Town, Tortola, British Virgin Islands (January 10, 2022) – Talon Metals...

talonmetals.com

 

[82bert]

These headlines of “Tesla China Sales Drop” are always comical. They purposely ignore (in the headline at least, which is all most see/understand in 2022) that they’re up 200% yoy, that the month is only 28 days, and that there are even fewer days due to Chinese New Year. Headlines should really say sales/deliveries up. Very basic math would tell you that.

 

[larmor]

These headlines of “Tesla China Sales Drop” are railways comical. They ignore (in the headline at least, which is all most see/understand in 2022) that they’re up 200% yoy, that the month is only 28 days, and that there are even fewer days due to Chinese New Year. Headlines should really say sales/deliveries up. Very basic math would tell you that.

New Shortsville Times headlines:
"Tesla China Sales, a Mic Drop"

 

[Featsbeyond50]

No kidding. That’s great and all, but how does one know when the knife has finally settled in and is vibrating? It never looks like a falling knife when you first reach for it. It’s only after, when your palm is splayed open that you realize it.

I think you need to start looking at charts. Look at 5 year charts for SQ or SHOP for good examples of falling knives. When you see charts that look like that, keep your hands in your pockets.

 

[elasalle]

Market is worried about falling nukes, not falling knives

 

[GOVA]

Market is worried about falling nukes, not falling knives

Respectfully, I have to disagree.

Once nukes start falling there is no market and no tomorrow.

Market is just being stupid and, like always, heavily manipulated.