Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

In retrospect should have replaced both cars with Teslas. Just hate dealing with 2 car payments at the same time.

I've never had a car which was also a sound investment. In 10 years maybe it'll be worth $80k. When is the IRS going to start recognizing interest on my Tesla loan as an investment expense?

This isn't just a random talk up my car post. Car buyers are willing to pay more for cars with higher resale values. Which suggests Tesla should retain pricing power for some time.

Lots of little things like this suggest TSLA will be a good stock to hold during an inflationary period.

 

[StealthP3D]

Of course, challenging a world leader to a duel to the death is a recent example, and unlike some I don't think that this statement on Twitter is part of a 4D chess game that Elon has all figured out.

By my reckoning, challenging Putin to a duel is very polite and gentlemanly thing to do relative to three people I know who have all independently let me know that they would personally kill Putin covertly, and pay the price, if given half a chance.

Of course, Elon's tweet is simply a gentlemanly way to highlight what a despicable bully Putin is being. That he is not acting acceptably and deserves to die. But said in a historically gentlemanly way. People getting all bent out of shape over this need to step back for a little perspective because some things need to be said.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hope the Fed sees this the way you are. If not, the "extra" rate hikes would put us exactly where we were in the late 70s/early 80s. Inflation with demand destruction.

I would have to imagine the Fed is keen on waiting until at least May/June before doing anything drastic in terms of rate hikes. That's because of context. They know the year over year comparisons lend themselves to a high number. It's much more key to see what happens to the inflation number starting around May/June when the year over year comparisons are more accurate.

So I don't see any surprise hikes anytime soon........just the .25% hikes that they've telegraphed.

 

[traxila]

I hope the Fed sees this the way you are. If not, the "extra" rate hikes would put us exactly where we were in the late 70s/early 80s. Inflation with demand destruction.

If the Fed had any firepower (as in interest rates NOT at ZERO) it would not be moving rates up.

The most quoted reason I see for hiking right now is that they must have something to cut if a recession comes.

We got supply side issues, but the only thing the Fed can control is demand. Oil is destroying that demand as well, they know this. I guess interest rate hikes destroy demand at a higher level of the income bracket and oil devastates the lower income brackets.

This is all the Fed's doing in the end. Should have had a couple of rate hikes last year. Still believe the whole inflation deal might have been intentional. Devaluation of debt in a debt riddled world can be seen as good by a lot of parties.... as long as it comes back down at some point.

 

[EVDRVN]

Haha! It looks like your neighbor played you like a cheap violin. He saw that you wanted him to do something really bad, that you were trying to convince him to buy TSLA, and he felt it would be fun to simply play along, as if he was open to it. He's probably secretly jealous of your financial success but lacks enough understanding of the situation to know it will happen all over again.

Tesla doesn't need your neighbor to buy a Tesla or to buy TSLA. When the stock invariably takes off on it's next bull run, he will be left behind, once again, and you will have the last laugh. It's a near certainty. But don't rub it in, you will want to demonstrate to your neighbor who was unable to pull the trigger on a truly good investment, that you are even more mature than the man he despises. Because he is obviously a person who puts a high premium on things like appearing mature.

Sometimes laughter is the best medicine. Nobody likes a stick in the mud.

Sounds like you know me and my neighbor really well. I should come to you to get the lowdown on all my personal relationships

 

[bkp_duke]

If the Fed had any firepower (as in interest rates NOT at ZERO) it would not be moving rates up.

The most quoted reason I see for hiking right now is that they must have something to cut if a recession comes.

We got supply side issues, but the only thing the Fed can control is demand. Oil is destroying that demand as well, they know this. I guess interest rate hikes destroy demand at a higher level of the income bracket and oil devastates the lower income brackets.

This is all the Fed's doing in the end. Should have had a couple of rate hikes last year. Still believe the whole inflation deal might have been intentional. Devaluation of debt in a debt riddled world can be seen as good by a lot of parties.... as long as it comes back down at some point.

I concur, except that inflation hits the lowest-income brackets the hardest. Very few people are arguing against a $15/h minimum wage now b/c the purchasing power it provides has already been eroded.

 

[Curt Renz]

By my reckoning, challenging Putin to a duel is very polite and gentlemanly thing to do relative to three people I know who have all independently let me know that they would personally kill Putin covertly, and pay the price, if given half a chance.

Of course, Elon's tweet is simply a gentlemanly way to highlight what a despicable bully Putin is being. That he is not acting acceptably and deserves to die. But said in a historically gentlemanly way. People getting all bent out of shape over this need to step back for a little perspective because some things need to be said.

 

[tslagreen]

A lot of fear out there right now.

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

Fear & Greed is CNNMoney's investor sentiment tool that comprises of 7 markets indicators.

money.cnn.com

View attachment 780838

View attachment 780839

 

[tslagreen]

Buy indicator!

 

[WADan]

Haha! It looks like your neighbor played you like a cheap violin. He saw that you wanted him to do something really bad, that you were trying to convince him to buy TSLA, and he felt it would be fun to simply play along, as if he was open to it. He's probably secretly jealous of your financial success but lacks enough understanding of the situation to know it will happen all over again.

Sounds like you know me and my neighbor really well. I should come to you to get the lowdown on all my personal relationships

My neighbor is in the opposite situation. He has orders for 2 Model Xs. He regretfully told me he had to sell his TSLA shares to buy a wedding ring a couple of years ago (He was in school)

 

[MartinAustin]

Loada Bologny got a chance to get on-screen today, hitting Tesla over an apparent contract to buy aluminium from a Russian corporation. No low-hanging fruit was picked to clarify things like "not U.S. manufacturing" - but that's typical CNBC

 

[jschwefel]

I’m becoming more and more convinced we’re living in a simulation. HODL.

 

[AZRI11]

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh meets Elon at Gigafactory Texas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503494826045624330

 

[FireMedic]

I’m not at all a fan of TA; but it’s helpful for me rationalize this insane selloff.

According to this phrenology we had strong support hold up today at $763, if that fails then we likely see $709, and if that fails to hold, then, most likely we revisit $592.

The Stephenson indicator is sitting at nearly $895 today. Record sales and profits, again, incoming soon. Tick,tick, tick.

 

[ZachF]

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh meets Elon at Gigafactory Texas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503494826045624330

Hey, it’s mayah mahhty!

 

[FireMedic]

What’s going on in the after hours? Looks like we’re up 1.35% $777.77 ATM

 

[EVMeister]

What’s going on in the after hours? Looks like we’re up 1.35% $777.77 ATM

It was caused by your previous post.

 

[Nocturnal]

We got supply side issues, but the only thing the Fed can control is demand. Oil is destroying that demand as well, they know this. I guess interest rate hikes destroy demand at a higher level of the income bracket and oil devastates the lower income brackets.

This. We have no leadership from Congress or POTUS on this. Not that we usually do, but now is when we really need it. So the FED is forced to carry a burden that they aren't able to handle.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Maybe folks are seeing FSD 11 do some cool stuff. Seems smoother.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m not at all a fan of TA; but it’s helpful for me rationalize this insane selloff.

According to this phrenology we had strong support hold up today at $763, if that fails then we likely see $709, and if that fails to hold, then, most likely we revisit $592.

The Stephenson indicator is sitting at nearly $895 today. Record sales and profits, again, incoming soon. Tick,tick, tick.

View attachment 780928

The TA on this 3 month downtrend has been spot on to a tee.

When it comes to options, there's a ton of incentive for MM's to keep this above 800/share with max pain being 850. Really at least 825/share if what looks like they'd want to target. And since this is the big options expiration week, the incentive for them to hit max pain is even higher.

Beyond the incentive for MM's to step in here, you have the growing disparity between EPS estimates for Q1 and 2022 in general, going one way and the stock going the other way, which is farther and farther away from it's 2 year trend line (The Stephenson indicator).

Normally you see a stock diverging from a major trend line like that, you'd think there's been major earnings revisions downward. But it's just the opposite. And as we all know here, Tesla's going to beat the Q1 EPS estimates by a huge margin.

So you have these competing forces that I mentioned above and then 3 month downtrend line that the stock has continually sold off at every time it tries to rally. After this week, there's the Berlin delivery event. And a week after that, Q1 P/D report. The downtrend is coming to a point where it has to break one way or the other. And try as I might, the only way I can it breaking to the downside is if Q1 P/D number's are awful.