Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I think one trading day is generally meaningless in the big picture, but a day like today should be encouraging to all TSLA longs that they are backing the right horse.

I recommend against using share price movements to judge whether you are backing the right horse. You will always get a better view by looking directly at the company's developments and performance. Period. You can be confident the share price will always eventually reward the company's performance.

The problem with using share price to judge a company (even a little bit) is it tends to promote buying high and selling low, exactly the opposite of what an investor wants to do for the best returns. Have confidence in your analysis without relying on the market to confirm it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The best thing is, it comes with an investment in TSLA at no extra charge and, yet, this is something I could never invest in as a standalone company at this stage of development because it lacks enough certainty of payback and the timeline is too long. But, attached to a highly profitable business, it's a real gem. Tesla can leverage their in-house expertise and move talent around as needed.

As Elon said, Tesla should be considered as an amalgamation of a bunch of start up companies. Want to have a diversified portfolio? Buy more Tesla!

Automotive (sedans, SUVs, sports cars, pickup trucks and Class 8 big rigs), energy creation, energy storage, AI, robots, battery cells, metallurgy, advanced factories, EV charging networks, infotainment subscriptions, auto insurance. I’m probably missing a few things too…

 

[Mengy]

Optimus remains a huge wildcard that has a good chance of transforming the world in unimaginable ways.

If Tesla can actually pull Optimus off, then heck even I'll own my own little island or mountain top. The multiple such an invention would bring to TSLA is difficult to imagine.

 

[Ogre]

At first, Optimus will be klutzy, funny, endearing idiots and everyone will want one but, as they continue to become smarter and more capable, they will transform society as we know it.

I hope they don’t stop being funny and endearing. They should never stop being funny and endearing. I’m even Ok with them being idiots so long as they can do the stuff they need to.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yes, there are at least two Tesla products which would be of obvious value to the military right now:

1. Megapack - many U.S. bases have begun the transition to 100% renewable power
2. Autonomy - better to send a transport truck into a hot zone w/o a driver

But really, Elon has ended this discussion by providing Starlink to Ukraine. Elon will always chose the moral path, even when difficult or controversial. And that includes fighting for a Nation's right to self-determination.

That's how he rolls. Democracy rules.

3. Cybertruck! The Ukraine army specifically told us this. Although that's for the ground war and it's a bit far from an armored vehicle. So now wondering what the armored version of Cybertruck looks like? I mean, why not start there? What else will maneuver or tow like CyberTruck, but with speed and acceleration as well?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think one trading day is generally meaningless in the big picture, but a day like today should be encouraging to all TSLA longs that they are backing the right horse.

I think TSLA on its own caused that marketwide MMD this morning, that's how powerful this moment is. And why not? TSLA options are literally half the options market. That's a lot of incentive for algos to move entire markets.

Max pain is 845 this week with big spikes at 920/950/1000....and we were sprinting to 950 at the open. Can't have that.

I think MM's we're kinda forced to stomp on all of QQQ almost exclusively to slow down TSLA, almost entirely because of options contracts. Absolutely no idea if this has any validity, just smell like it's true.

Wild times!

 

[Thumper]

If autonomy is achieved, your new Tesla can arrive at your home with a power wall purchase as freight.

 

[StealthP3D]

If Tesla can actually pull Optimus off, then heck even I'll own my own little island or mountain top. The multiple such an invention would bring to TSLA is difficult to imagine.

I have nearly zero doubt Tesla will make Optimus and it will find many markets. IMO, the only real question is how long it will take to hit profitability. And I am optimistic profitability is closer than many assume (maybe as short as 5 years) because, properly designed, it won't cost that much to produce. It will just be a bunch of small, light, metal and plastic parts. Many of the plastic parts will snap together. The "central nervous system" will be printed in high volume, the "brain" will be a computer costing less than a laptop, It will be designed to be assembled rapidly with the most expensive components being the battery (probably around 1 kWh) and the motors to power all the components. The skeleton will be light and flexible.

The first versions will not be ready for difficult tasks but it will still have plenty of "early adopter" applications as volumes ramp and prices come down. Within a decade it will be highly desirable and highly profitable.

 

[Mengy]

I have nearly zero doubt Tesla will make Optimus and it will find many markets. IMO, the only real question is how long it will take to hit profitability. And I am optimistic profitability is closer than many assume (maybe as short as 5 years) because, properly designed, it won't cost that much to produce. It will just be a bunch of small, light, metal and plastic parts. Many of the plastic parts will snap together. The "central nervous system" will be printed in high volume, the "brain" will be a computer costing less than a laptop, It will be designed to be assembled rapidly with the most expensive components being the battery (probably around 1 kWh) and the motors to power all the components. The skeleton will be light and flexible.

The first versions will not be ready for difficult tasks but it will still have plenty of "early adopter" applications as volumes ramp and prices come down. Within a decade it will be highly desirable and highly profitable.

That sounds about what I expect to play out as well.

I can't wait to buy one for my own personal use around the house and yard!!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

3. Cybertruck! The Ukraine army specifically told us this. Although that's for the ground war and it's a bit far from an armored vehicle. So now wondering what the armored version of Cybertruck looks like? I mean, why not start there? What else will maneuver or tow like CyberTruck, but with speed and acceleration as well?

As I said, "military right now" - Cybertruck's not in production. And I wouldn't expect it to react well to a 12.7mm incendiary rd in the NCA package...

You're going to want a non-flammable (maybe solid state) bty in a free-fire zone.

 

[jeewee3000]

I have nearly zero doubt Tesla will make Optimus and it will find many markets. IMO, the only real question is how long it will take to hit profitability. And I am optimistic profitability is closer than many assume (maybe as short as 5 years) because, properly designed, it won't cost that much to produce. It will just be a bunch of small, light, metal and plastic parts. Many of the plastic parts will snap together. The "central nervous system" will be printed in high volume, the "brain" will be a computer costing less than a laptop, It will be designed to be assembled rapidly with the most expensive components being the battery (probably around 1 kWh) and the motors to power all the components. The skeleton will be light and flexible.

The first versions will not be ready for difficult tasks but it will still have plenty of "early adopter" applications as volumes ramp and prices come down. Within a decade it will be highly desirable and highly profitable.

I share this view. A bit like how Boston Dynamics' Spotmini product launch is going. Early adopters paying a lot for little use. But then the use cases increasing due to OTA software updates and the price of the robot dropping due to ramping production.

Five years for first use cases seems plausible IMO.

 

[larmor]

I have nearly zero doubt Tesla will make Optimus and it will find many markets. IMO, the only real question is how long it will take to hit profitability. And I am optimistic profitability is closer than many assume (maybe as short as 5 years) because, properly designed, it won't cost that much to produce. It will just be a bunch of small, light, metal and plastic parts. Many of the plastic parts will snap together. The "central nervous system" will be printed in high volume, the "brain" will be a computer costing less than a laptop, It will be designed to be assembled rapidly with the most expensive components being the battery (probably around 1 kWh) and the motors to power all the components. The skeleton will be light and flexible.

The first versions will not be ready for difficult tasks but it will still have plenty of "early adopter" applications as volumes ramp and prices come down. Within a decade it will be highly desirable and highly profitable.

Amazon with its warehouses i'm guessing is watching closely.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the most expensive components being the battery (probably around 1 kWh)

I bet it'll be 2.557 kilowatt hours (rechargeable in 20 min @ 3C)

That's one human liver's worth of glycogen energy (about 2,000 calories) plus 10% extra capacity for charge buffering.

Optimus' should beat humans handily on energy efficiency though (similar to ICE vs EV), and the AI CPU uses about as much power as a human brain (100w).

Once trained properly, I expect Optium' will be about 3x as productive as a human laborer, and able to work 21.5 hrs per day. With vacations and time off, that one 'bot replaces 6 workers. With its productivity, it creates the value of 18.

Cheers!

 

[Knightshade]

As I said, "military right now" - Cybertruck's not in production.

yeah but you DID list autonomy with no human driver- which also isn't in production right now.

Yes, there are at least two Tesla products which would be of obvious value to the military right now:

1. Megapack - many U.S. bases have begun the transition to 100% renewable power
2. Autonomy - better to send a transport truck into a hot zone w/o a driver

Why do you count one not-shipping-yet product that's likely further away (esp on a battlefield, I doubt they've done much NN training on dodging mortar shells) than the one you don't count?

Optimus' should beat humans handily on energy efficiency though (similar to ICE vs EV), and the AI CPU uses about as much power as a human brain (100w).

This, too, is not at all correct.

The human brain uses 15-20 watts, not 100. And far less than that for computation specifically-Source below

Computation in the human cerebral cortex uses less than 0.2 watts yet this great expense is optimal when considering communication costs

Darwinian evolution tends to produce energy-efficient outcomes. On the other hand, energy limits computation, be it neural and probabilistic or digital and logical. After establishing an energy-efficient viewpoint, we define computation and construct an energy-constrained, computational function...

www.biorxiv.org

 

[SOULPEDL]

As I said, "military right now" - Cybertruck's not in production. And I wouldn't expect it to react well to a 12.7mm incediary rd in the NCA package...

You're going to want a non-flammable (maybe solid state) bty in a free-fire zone.

Semi's not in production either yet Pepsi has some already. But good point on the fire zone to avoid Baddaboom! (Now she's stuck in my head again).

 

[hobbes]

Elon officially on his way to Giga Berlin opening:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505789367897448448

...and has already toured the factory:

Elon Musk tours Giga Berlin ahead of official opening tomorrow

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has arrived in Germany to prepare for the official opening of Giga Berlin, scheduled to take place tomorrow March 22. Musk left Austin, Texas late on Sunday night, arriving in Brandenburg […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Zero CO2]

That would probably be enough, but notarized by Elon would be better.
Seriously, one of the weakest links in Tesla is the Sales dept. I don't doubt their good intentions and sincerity but they do not have their act together. I take what anyone from sales says (or even writes in email) with a grain of salt. The company moves too fast for Sales to keep up.

I live in NM, and at the time I ordered by Model Y the closest delivery center was Colorado Springs. In the meantime Nambe near Santa Fe opened for business (and for a while, deliveries) and I now think that delivery in Denver is a good option for me. But I'm going to leave it at Colorado Springs because the risk of a mix-up if I try to change is just too high and not worth it to me.

I am a great fan of Tesla, but the company has its weak spots. And communication (both with the customer and inside the company) can be really poor.

Just did my part for Q1 picked up my new to me (off lease 2018 Model S) in Brooklyn NY delivery center ... already working on my Safety Score score ...looking forward to FSD beta.

It was a total nightmare on delivery... I wont get into specifics here ... suffice it to say they have a lot of work to do... same delivery center was much better in 2017 when i picked up my 2017 Model S( a lot less volume at that time and i was treated like i was buying a luxury car)... suffice it to say if not for being a mission supporter/investor... i would be in a dispute with Tesla right now based on my experience ...

i would summarize it this way .. Apple treats me better when i purchase a $1000 phone
they really need to work on this i hand them a check for over $76000 i should be treated like it is a years pretax salary for many people ... at some point the delivery/sales experience must be improved....

Tesla has no real competition and they are starting to behave like it ... monopolist behavior not good
they need to make it a priority

they will need to recruit Sales/Delivery talent ... not just engineering ... for most consumers this is their main impression of Tesla .. once the benefits of an EV are a given (as is my case) ... you are less willing to forgive the bad interactions

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just did my part for Q1 picked up my new to me (off lease 2018 Model S) in Brooklyn NY delivery center ... already working on my Safety Score score ...looking forward to FSD beta.

It was a total nightmare on delivery... I wont get into specifics here ... suffice it to say they have a lot of work to do... same delivery center was much better in 2017 when i picked up my 2017 Model S( a lot less volume at that time and i was treated like i was buying a luxury car)... suffice it to say if not for being a mission supporter/investor... i would be in a dispute with Tesla right now based on my experience ...

i would summarize it this way .. Apple treats me better when i purchase a $1000 phone
they really need to work on this i hand them a check for over $76000 i should be treated like it is a years pretax salary for many people ... at some point the delivery/sales experience must be improved....

Tesla has no real competition and they are starting to behave like it ... monopolist behavior not good
they need to make it a priority

they will need to recruit Sales/Delivery talent ... not just engineering ...

I think it's kinda silly to compare a car delivery with picking up a Phone. How about compare it to ya know......buying a car from a car dealership. Maybe it's just me but I'd rather have Tesla's car delivery subpar service verses sitting in a car dealership for 4 hours as they try every attempt to upcharge/price gouge me.

Mods can delete this post if they want, I won't bother responding if someone quotes this. It's just silly to compare car delivery to picking up the new Iphone.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems like macro roll back is expected to form a higher low before the next leg up. Tesla's job is to close above 900 today.

I'm not entirely confident in that. TSLA progressively weaker throughout the trading day. Nasdaq was down 1.2% when TSLA dropped to 910. Now Nasdaq down .8%, yet TSLA is down to 913. Progressively weaker trading through the morning. I could see TSLA at least testing 900 if not losing that level as it gets weaker throughout the day.

We've seen this trading action time and time again so it's not surprising.

Btw, I don't think I need to state the obvious here but these are just musings about short term downtrend or uptrends. Doesn't matter if TSLA is at 900 or 800 right now compared to where it will be end of the year and end of next year. I've been pretty consistent for a year now that I think Tesla's earnings will grow to a scale that forces the stock higher as long as they execute and nothing's really changed my thoughts.

 

[WarpedOne]

Autonomy will solve this delivery experience hassles. It will honk at arrival...