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Born on the 4th of July
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Yes, if the P/E stays that high the share price could look something like that by the end of this year. My gut feeling is the P/E will compress a bit during this year and we'll see a share price lower than that, even given the much higher EPS.
Either way we'll be trucking our way to a share price which increases by a lot every year.
This is initial production, just as the former Ford LIghtning one was. That is their defense. But...
We also saw initial production video for Shanghai and Grùneheide and hints of Austin.
The differences are striking. Labor costs alone are vastly higher for Ford and GM. Quality control seems to be mostly manual, with all the variances built into that. Of course we do not see anything like complete assembly line for either Ford or GM.
The thing that occurs to me is that the evidence seems to suggest that the Tesla lead is accelerating. One huge factor these do not show explicitly is that the vertical integration of Tesla allows very rapid changes, so, as Geico Taiki-sha (the Grüneheide paint shop supplier) has said, their new paint shop technology saves money and time because of overall systems integration, so it really isn't suitable for retrofit in traditional factories. I made a longer post about that here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections
Europe import duties of 10% or ~$5500.... Duty is based on landed cost, not retail price. Should be less than 4k. Shipping used to be a bit under 1k, don't know current price or how long Tesla locked in their prices. They even seem to be off on the Market Share. Looking at this which doesnt...
teslamotorsclub.com
The point is that in both GM and Ford we see traditional paint shops with mostly manual QC and some manual intervention. We see people doing manual sanding and surface corrections. They simply do not and cannot conceive an integrated factory management system. We often do not discuss the 'alien dreadnaught'. We rarely discuss the fact that Tesla programs the robots it uses, although they clearly do also use manufacturer support.
We we so far do not have is a systematic way to value these processes. We all see how quickly Tesla responds to changes, how adept they are in dealing with substitutes for parts shortages.
What we do have thanks to @The Accountant and others, is the progression in FCF and Gross margins. Just imagine what it means for an high volume automotive manufacturing and distribution process to deliver Tesla Gross Margin, much less improve on that. Let the critics say, 'well, Tesla isn't high volume' and anyway Ferrari (RACE) has higher GM". Keep in mind that Fremont is already the highest volume auto plant in North America and will keep that distinction until Austin passes it, because Austin is set to be the largest auto plant in the world.
That all means Tesla is getting massive scale economies right now. As @The Accountant so kindly informs us, '2022 will turn out wonderfully but you ain't seen nothin'yet, 2023 will be another world!' (I hope my paraphrase got it correctly.
With all the headwinds and questions in 2023 we'll have the next factories identified and they'll also have several massive new battery production facilities from CATL, Tesla, Panasonic and probably BYD and others all helping advance automotive and stationary storage. We'll also have some major refinements in related technologies such as AI, Starlink, Robotics etc. that will help enable long awaited FSD and better manufacturing processes.
We need not even discuss the product line enhancements. For Tesla that is the easy part once logistics, batteries and chips have been dealt with properly.
53 acres filled with MegaPacks at GigaAustin? Holy moly
Land use also includes switchyard, so not entirely megapacks.53 acres filled with MegaPacks at GigaAustin? Holy moly
New power distribution point for cell manufacturing? 50 GWh/yr is a 3 MW continous net load if cells leave at 50% SOC. Definitely don't want that going dark (over-optimizing, the cells in process could be an internal UPS, but that complicates things and makes dependencies).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Nawh, that's the same wrong assumption he made about Fremont production when they were zhutdown for 2 days due to a g-press. fyre (parking lot).
He doesn't get it. Tesla IS NOT constrained by GA; its the chip supply, then the batteries....
Some Patrenomes are just hard learners... or paid short membory.
Cheers!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't think people realize how much money is out there for Energy. Here's hoping Tesla had pre negotiated deals in place to provide ALL ancillary service in the near term.53 acres filled with MegaPacks at GigaAustin? Holy moly
Setups like this got flipped on in Australia and all of the sudden most grid balancing problems went away. Then of course the utility balked at paying for the grid balancing since it wasn't technically a problem anymore!
As Tesla learns and makes robust partnerships with other energy players, I expect margins to be far wider than Automotive.
I occasionally glance at the "Tesla coin" price over weekends, as it tends to indicate overall fear in the world, similar to BTC. Usually the price swings within $10 of the last market trades, but this morning the price had jumped to $1100+. I get the low liquidity and all, but this seems very out of the ordinary. Is this a sign that we'll have a very fun Monday? Tesla tokenized stock FTX price today, TSLA to USD live, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap
The Accountant
Active Member
To paraphrase Walter's quote from the Big Lebowski, "Ford and GM are entering a world of pain . . .my friend".
Even before their transition to EVs, the Operating Margins for their Auto segment are poor.
Accounting Terms:
Gross Margin = Revenues less Cost of Manufacturing
Operating Margin = Gross Margin less R&D and Selling Gen & Admin Expenses
Gross Margin = Revenues less Cost of Manufacturing
Operating Margin = Gross Margin less R&D and Selling Gen & Admin Expenses
You can't blame the pandemic. GM had 3% OpInc Margin in 2019 while Ford was losing money at -2%.
I believe as they attempt a transition to EVs, things will get worse.
Tesla had 13% OpInc margins in 2021 but they ended Q4 with 16% and by the time they get to Q4 2022 they should be at 21%.
. . . . and Wall Street is surprised that Tesla's Market Cap exceeds all of their competitors combined?
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While I understand that we don't like to talk about Crypto here... I would not touch this with a Teslabot's hand. This could be rugpulled at anytime. Stay far away. And this is coming from someone who is generally positive about Bitcoin. The market cap of this is so small it can be manipulated easily. Don't look to it for much price guidance either.
I hear Mattel is massively undervalued because they make more cars than every automaker combined but is only valued at 8 billion dollars.
The Accountant
Active Member
When I pencil in your 340k deliveries into my model, my non-GAAP EPS changes from $2.80 to $3.05.Troys Q1 estimate now down below 320k. Seems to be making the same wrong assumptions about Shanghai production for the month of March because of Covid that he did with Fremont in Dec when he assumed Tesla would have demand issues at the end of the quarter.
Keep in mind, just 2 weeks before Q4 numbers, Troy was at 276k, which was more than 10% off from the actual number. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the same thing happen again.
Also, he states that DMV registration data points to Fremont production being exactly the same as Q4. There’s been multiple pieces of anecdotal evidence that contradicts this and we’ve had 2 different data sources that point to US deliveries being much higher than Q4 in the first two months of the quarter. If the Q1 number comes into higher than 330k, Troy needs to do find new registration data sources or stop his method of taking select data and extrapolating.
I’m staying at a range of 335k-340k using the other 2 sources of US registration data and the data we already have from China for Jan/Feb. If you go back to my post from a couple weeks ago, Tesla only needs to produce around 70-72k to hit 80k deliveries for March. If they were to do that, total deliveries for Tesla for Q1 would be above 347k
My $2.80 assumes 320k deliveries.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
(quote above from 6:09 a.m. Feb 24, 2022) Oh, this aged well. What a differnence a month can make!
Nothing like a +44% intramonth swing to the upside, wot?
Well sussed! HODL FTW!
Cheers!
I would be happy at 330k deliveries with non-GAAP EPS of $2.93
We all (well...the smart ones on here at least) knew $TSLA was going down due to the macro environment, and not because there is a demand problem, elon's tweets, FSD FUD, etc, etc. While this +44% swing is nice, i think they still owe us an ATH in the near future(quote above from 6:09 a.m. Feb 24, 2022) Oh, this aged well. What a differnence a month can make!
View attachment 786177
Nothing like a +44% intramonth swing to the upside, wot?
Well sussed! HODL FTW!
Cheers!
While this +44% swing is nice, i think they still owe us an ATH in the near future
I think we'll see a new ATH later this year. Given the production ramp and margins increase I almost feel it's a given. The new ATH might not last very long if the P/E gets compressed, but my gut (and my predictive model) suggests we'll see a ramp to a new ATH at some point close to 2023.
GM likely does not have the battery supply to build a high volume factory.This is initial production, just as the former Ford LIghtning one was. That is their defense. But...
We also saw initial production video for Shanghai and Grùneheide and hints of Austin.
The differences are striking. Labor costs alone are vastly higher for Ford and GM. Quality control seems to be mostly manual, with all the variances built into that. Of course we do not see anything like complete assembly line for either Ford or GM.
The thing that occurs to me is that the evidence seems to suggest that the Tesla lead is accelerating. One huge factor these do not show explicitly is that the vertical integration of Tesla allows very rapid changes, so, as Geico Taiki-sha (the Grüneheide paint shop supplier) has said, their new paint shop technology saves money and time because of overall systems integration, so it really isn't suitable for retrofit in traditional factories. I made a longer post about that here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections
Europe import duties of 10% or ~$5500.... Duty is based on landed cost, not retail price. Should be less than 4k. Shipping used to be a bit under 1k, don't know current price or how long Tesla locked in their prices. They even seem to be off on the Market Share. Looking at this which doesnt...
The point is that in both GM and Ford we see traditional paint shops with mostly manual QC and some manual intervention. We see people doing manual sanding and surface corrections. They simply do not and cannot conceive an integrated factory management system. We often do not discuss the 'alien dreadnaught'. We rarely discuss the fact that Tesla programs the robots it uses, although they clearly do also use manufacturer support.
We we so far do not have is a systematic way to value these processes. We all see how quickly Tesla responds to changes, how adept they are in dealing with substitutes for parts shortages.
What we do have thanks to @The Accountant and others, is the progression in FCF and Gross margins. Just imagine what it means for an high volume automotive manufacturing and distribution process to deliver Tesla Gross Margin, much less improve on that. Let the critics say, 'well, Tesla isn't high volume' and anyway Ferrari (RACE) has higher GM". Keep in mind that Fremont is already the highest volume auto plant in North America and will keep that distinction until Austin passes it, because Austin is set to be the largest auto plant in the world.
That all means Tesla is getting massive scale economies right now. As @The Accountant so kindly informs us, '2022 will turn out wonderfully but you ain't seen nothin'yet, 2023 will be another world!' (I hope my paraphrase got it correctly.
With all the headwinds and questions in 2023 we'll have the next factories identified and they'll also have several massive new battery production facilities from CATL, Tesla, Panasonic and probably BYD and others all helping advance automotive and stationary storage. We'll also have some major refinements in related technologies such as AI, Starlink, Robotics etc. that will help enable long awaited FSD and better manufacturing processes.
We need not even discuss the product line enhancements. For Tesla that is the easy part once logistics, batteries and chips have been dealt with properly.
Tesla won’t make the Cybertruck until the Model Y production is ramped. GM wants more models.
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