Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SmokyPeat]

I've heard Elon say that the size and weight of a Powerwall matters, unlike larger scale stationary storage.

This doesn't matter relative to the valid point you were making, but it matters from a factual perspective. People should not have the expectation that Powerwall is going to migrate to Fe based batteries.

Just a matter of time before Powerwalls go to LFP, in my opinion. Cost advantages, cycle life advantages, fire safety advantages, Iron vs. Nickel supply advantages. I would think the changeover happens sometime in the next 18 months.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is. Tesla’s abilities and planning processes for «Plan B»’s is exactly what makes them shine, throw anything at them - they will not fold.

True that! The goal is to make CARS, not batteries. That's just an imput, which has costs and performance specs. On the conference call, Elon said:

Elon Musk:​

​

"I think it probably is fair to say that 4680 and structural pack will be competitive with the best alternatives later this year. And we think we’ll exceed the best alternatives next year."​

This means just two things for Tesla's battery cell suppliers:

1. specs are going up
2. price is going down

That is the Bullish part: "Keep up, or we'll just build our own cells. But you can still sell to us if you work hard." Drew teased that Tesla's CapEx spend on its Giga Texas battery plant was 5x less than on a conventional LiIon batteries. I hope the 3rd-party suppliers are licencing from tech from Tesla, or at least developing their own instead of sitting still.

Cheers!

 

[UltradoomY]

Can anyone explain why this received a bunch of down votes? It seems like a legitimate concern. I would like to not be worried about it, but haven't seen an argument about why Elon selling additional shares is not a possibility.

That would be, because there is no merit to the question.
Elon has already secured financing as amended in his 13D he filed with the SEC.

 

[kbM3]

If true, that would be an indication that they’re deliberately slowing 4680 production (a possibility I pointed out in my OTOH comment in the original post). That would indeed be a positive if slowing the ramp pays benefits downstream. I need to re-listen to the call to remember their comment on this.

Found the quote from the call:

Zachary Kirkhorn — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And the other thing I would add is like, with the China COVID shutdown and the semiconductor bottlenecks we had through Q4 and hence a little bit in Q1, we have sizable cell inventory at the moment and excess cells to support the 2022 volume targets you described. So that gives us the ability to be pretty deliberate in the 4680 ramp where we can maximize the learning step by step, take engineering downtime to upgrade key pieces of equipment and modify the structural pack design to improve reliability, all while achieving what you just said so.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

That would be, because there is no merit to the question.
Elon has already secured financing as amended in his 13D he filed with the SEC.

Thank you. I looked at the 13D. Elon has to come up with $21B. The rest is from debt financing from Morgan Stanley, et al. Where does he get the $21B from?

 

[Rarity]

Thank you. I looked at the 13D. Elon has to come up with $21B. The rest is from debt financing from Morgan Stanley, et al. Where does he get the $21B from?

As I understand, much of it comes from investors who are coming along for the ride. And Musk already owns 9%, which goes in that bucket.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Thank you. I looked at the 13D. Elon has to come up with $21B. The rest is from debt financing from Morgan Stanley, et al. Where does he get the $21B from?

Equity financing, i.e., by selling equity in whatever TWTR turns into and/or the parent holding company to other investors. Why would Elon need to come up with all $46.5B on his own? He just needs a majority stake. $21B is the minority stake intended for other investors.

 

[Electroman]

Equity financing, i.e., by selling equity in whatever TWTR turns into and/or the parent holding company to other investors. Why would Elon need to come up with all $46.5B on his own? He just needs a majority stake. $21B is the minority stake intended for other investors.

Thank you. The noise from twitter and other internet sources gave the impression Musk is going to bear the $21B, and so he is going to sell a bunch of $TSLAs. Which you clarified is not correct

 

[samppa]

I think it's also about the massive amount of LFP batteries they were able to secure. They said HALF of all vehicles used LFPs. That means they may have a surplus of 2170s. What to do with them? My understanding is LFPs are better for local storage than 2170s, and if all Standard range vehicles use LFP (with better margins), what's left for the 2170s? Model Ys is appears.

Are really half of all vehicles standard range? ASP indicates there's more long range. Are the sr model 3 in usa with LFP? I thought it was only shanghai cars.

 

[Knightshade]

.

Are really half of all vehicles standard range? ASP indicates there's more long range. Are the sr model 3 in usa with LFP? I thought it was only shanghai cars.

SR in the US has been using LFP since at least 6 months ago IIRC

 

[Singuy]

Is Tesla using 2170 LFP cells? I thought the LFP cells they are getting from CATL were prismatic.

Sorry, you are right about LFP being prismatic.

 

[SO16]

Why would Jason saying something like this? How would we know/find out? I'm not about to start telling people this without verification....

Can’t say for certain this is a recent exchange but….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517352466261561345

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So is max pain for today +/- $5 from yesterday's close?

 

[elasalle]

TSLA ~ 1K with Dow dropping 800 points was enticing.

Converted ~ 50 odd shares(from CC sells) to 2 more Jan24/23 (1K-1.7K) diagonal spreads . cheers!!

(+Q1 results say SP should be a lot higher , and low water mark should now be 1K for the sideway trades
Goalpost now on to Q2 - everyone thinking Shanghai numbers will be bad - but on conf call, Mgmt was positive in this regard)

 

[Ogre]

Can’t say for certain this is a recent exchange but….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517352466261561345

Well... it's a green bubble conversation so that checks out, Gates won't use an iPhone.

Being on the wrong side of the 2 biggest growth stories of the early 21st century has to burn a little bit even for someone as rich as Gates.

But I am super skeptical about this. Gotta be careful. Just because something seems like it could be true and agrees with our biases doesn't mean it is legit.

 

[Ogre]

Looking at the market as a whole, Tesla's performance isn't too disappointing.

It does grate on me that Ford and GM are riding this wave so well. I think I've figured it out though.

• Good news for Tesla lifts all "EV" stocks. (GM & Ford)
• Bad news for Tesla lifts Tesla's competitors. (GM & Ford)
• Good News for Ford or GM causes Tesla to sink because competition is coming!!

I guess a rising tide lifts turds alongside the boats. Eventually turds sink though...

 

[Phobi]

With market’s coming to a close, I can’t help but feel positive with the strength TSLA is showing. I get the feeling everyone is expecting movement on Monday (3 day rule maybe?).

Destroy demand? Get in line…oh wait

Edit: I agree with everything said by Ogre above lol

 

[nativewolf]

Tesla’s decision on adding non-structural 2170 packs in Austin is not a positive. It’s a very effective mitigation strategy of a slower than forecast 4680 ramp, but that does not make it a positive. If you think it is a positive, that would mean if Elon tweeted they don’t need 2170’s after all in Austin, you would have to view that as a negative.

Although not clearly stated, it seems apparent that the 4680 ramp is going slower than they hoped. In calls last year, they guided 100 GWh this year, while Elon and Drew stated they were shooting for a 200 GWh / year rate by the end of this year.

If you recall, the original plan was to use 4680’s at both Berlin and Austin, with 2170’s as a fallback if necessary. It was very good news that although they didn’t hit that target for Berlin, they at least did for Austin. Now we know they need the fallback for Austin as well.

On the other hand: What was encouraging was that I thought I recalled from the call that going slower on the 4680 ramp, enabled more improvements (or some other positive benefits). So it is possible the slower 4680 ramp was intentional and beneficial in the long run and not because of issues.

I would agree 100%. Artful Dodger is doing his very best to get a glass of lemonade from the lemons. It was clear this winter that the 4680 was very slow and it has not picked up the pace yet. Very impressive that they can move to 2170 so quickly. 4680 is sort of key for scaled production though so it needs to happen. It's also key for the CT...which I'm waiting on...waiting. They said in q1 that chips would be constrained all year and that next year battery would be constrained but this slow ramp of 4680 is worrying. Anyway, AD staying positive. Good on him.

 

[Discoducky]

So, today the macros are still reeling from J Pow yesterday? TSLA staying strong today is very nice.

I'm bullish for next week given tech giants will most likely have big beats, but time will tell.

I'm also interested to see how GM and F earnings go (mainly how they spin poor performance).

 

[Singuy]

So, today the macros are still reeling from J Pow yesterday? TSLA staying strong today is very nice.

I'm bullish for next week given tech giants will most likely have big beats, but time will tell.

I'm also interested to see how GM and F earnings go (mainly how they spin poor performance).

What is interesting about today is that DOW that usually do well with inflation(even got an upgrade today) led the down turn while Nasdaq which does the poorest during interest rises did the best. Bond rates are down. Gold is down, commodities are down, and all sectors are down. Vix spiked above 24 by a lot so it seems like there's fear for next week that big tech may pull a netflix and collapse the market further. Netflix really spooked the market. I think it's Russia/Ukraine related as pulling out has materially affected earnings.