Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Sounds like you need a recalibration and a good lens cleaning

Yeah, it’s weird to think the behavior would change a lot without an update. But what do I know about AI and NNs (other than the acronyms).

 

[Iain]

Yeah, it’s weird to think the behavior would change a lot without an update. But what do I know about AI and NNs (other than the acronyms).

That's what I was wondering. I had at least 15 snapshots on a five mile drive. I'll recalibrate and test it out again. As I said it's been months without a software update.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So, what was wrong with my picture, please?

Lol. Nothing wrong with your spreadsheet. The problem was the assessment S&P assigned to Tesla .

We tend to be sarcastic on this thread. As you can see, your tweet generated a lot of interest and I at least found it very enlightening.

Edit: welcome to the forum. Your insight into S&P ratings would be highly valued.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, what was wrong with my picture, please?

Cropped slightly to show credit ratings for top-10 Large Caps vs Auto Majors:

Tesla Debt metrics vs. other automakers.2022-04-23 (color corr'd)​

Thanks for all your hard work collecting this data, T≡SLA Boomer Mama and Welcome to TMC!

Cheers!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Amazon reports earnings this week.

I think there is a high probability of a large miss and reduction in guidance, and like Netflix a lot of people will realize this company is closer to the top of its S curve rather than the bottom. As we have seen recently with Netflix and Facebook the market can be brutal with this type of news.

AWS also just recently bought ~$10 billion worth of launches for its Kuiper project (Starlink copy) choosing basically everybody but SpaceX, paying a giant premium for it. (Note:Starlink will probably pay ~$2b for the equivalent amount of launches….)

Rivian stock was the source for ~1/3rd of Amazon’s entire earnings last year, and that company has lost ~70% of its value since then. If it looks like they will lose money don’t be surprised if they do a “kitchen sink” quarter and dump a bunch of charges into Q1.

Operating income has been declining at Amazon every quarter since Q1, and YoY revenue growth minus inflation declining as well.

I’m not necessarily saying this is something that will happen, but it’s a probability I think the market is underestimating. Don’t be surprised next week if Amazon dumps 20%+ in a single day and takes Tesla down 3-4% with it.

I would not be surprised if AMZN drops 20% after their Thursday's Q1 '22 Conference Call, however I would be surprised if it takes TSLA down with it.

In my opinion AMZN topped out November 2021 (as with Netflix) and there is no rebounding to those levels. AMZN has had an amazing run since going public May 1997. Amazon's competition is e-Commerce On-Line Stores (think Salesforce, Etsy and enablers like Shopify), eBay, Walmart, FlipKart (India), Alibaba and JD (China), Otto (Europe), Rakuten (Japan) and many others. Amazon's business is very labour intensive and suseptible to high energy costs and distribution bottlenecks which have accellerated their downfall.

TSLA is still in its infancy of an upward trajectory and will be for many years to come, with most of their projects yet to come to mass fruition (Roadster 2, Semi, Energy, Robotaxi, Model 2, Optimus). Currently there is no competition at scale for any of these products. Their expertise in manufacturing has no equal. Tesla has shown they are the most capable to solution the chip shortages and distribution bottlenecks far better than other manufacturers.

So the smart money will exit the slowing growth companies and follow the new leader which is continuing to accelerate.

Short of yet another shutdown in Shanghai (which is possible but if so will be temporary) Tesla will continue to outperform its peers, outperform the market and outperform our expectations in Q2. And Q3 and Q4 will be out of this World.

 

[BigDawgz]

I would not be surprised if AMZN drops 20% after their Thursday's Q1 '22 Conference Call, however I would be surprised if it takes TSLA down with it.

In my opinion AMZN topped out November 2021 (as with Netflix) and there is no rebounding to those levels. AMZN has had an amazing run since going public May 1997. Amazon's competition is e-Commerce On-Line Stores (think Salesforce, Etsy and enablers like Shopify), eBay, Walmart, FlipKart (India), Alibaba and JD (China), Otto (Europe), Rakuten (Japan) and many others. Amazon's business is very labour intensive and suseptible to high energy costs and distribution bottlenecks which have accellerated their downfall.

Amazon is a web services company.
MOD: Nor is this the AMZN thread…

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Amazon is a web services company.

I was gonna say, most of AMZN's revenue and all of their profit is actually from AWS. The online store is a legacy business for them.

That being said, they are going to get killed by the mark-to-market losses on RIVN this quarter. That's what carried them last quarter and basically saved the QQQ. This time there is no saving them or the QQQ. I fully expect the NASDAQ to retest the year's lows this week when Meta dies (again) and AMZN dies the next day. AAPL and GOOG are our only hope for preventing a total market collapse.

If you want cheap lottery tickets that might pay off big, weekly puts on AMZN would be a fun play.

MOD: Nor is this the AMZN thread…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Model X production ramp seems to be proceeding apace, with first deliveries now scheduled in Canada:

Tesla Model X Plaids spotted in Toronto to kick off the first Canadian Model X deliveries in nearly one and a half years

Tesla shut down the Model X production line in Fremont all the way back in December 2020. Deliveries of the flagship SUV restarted in the US in October 2021, but there have been no deliveries […]

driveteslacanada.ca

With Model X prices through the roof here, that's going to be a tangible boost to Q2 ASPs.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Words of HABIT]

I see YAHOO! Finance already raised their estimate from January 27th (shown below). They will have to do better than their current estimate (shown above).
View attachment 790281

Hey Yahoo! Look up Here!

 

[MC3OZ]

Because Model 3 is physically to big for much of Europe and Asia. Model 2 has a huge TAM.

6 months ago my hunch as Austin and Berlin would make Model 3.

Now I can see Austin making the specialist Robotaxi a higher priority.

Most probably Berlin now makes Model 3 or a new compact model.

They are mostly likely to use new Gigapresses to make additional production, of wither a new vehicle or an existing model.

There is probably no good reason to tamper with Fremont and Shanghai Model 3 production, but it would be good to move al Model Y production to Front and Rear castings and a 4680 / 2170 pack.

If they can make a compact "Model 2" in Berlin, I can't see a pressing need to make Model 3.

If they are cranking out Robotaxis at Austin, there might not be an urgent need to make them in the EU or China. But of the 2, Chinese production might be more likely.

My current guesses keeping in mind these change over time:-

• Robotaxi - Austin.
• Robotaxi - Shanghai or new Chinese factory.
• "Model 2" - Berlin
• Model 3 - remains at Fremont and Shanghai - no major changes - continues to use 2170 or LFP packs.
• Model S/X - remain at Fremont only - no major changes - continue to use 18650.
• Roadster - Fremont or Austin
• Cybertruck - Austin
• Semi - Austin and/or Nevada

 

[Words of HABIT]

Happy Ukrainian Easter!

My father always used to say, "There are two types of people on this planet, Ukrainians, and those who what to be Ukrainian."

Wishing everyone a safe and healthy week. Here is to new beginnings.

 

[Big Dog]

They took a huge profit last quarter on it's appreciation.... This means they are using mark-to-market and so they need to write down it's value when it declines.

Remember the controversy of Tesla having to write down the value of their BTC holdings and it affected their profit that quarter? Same idea.

yes, and no. If the stock is publicly traded, which Rivian is, the corp owner must value it as of March 31 on the balance sheet, which is where assets go. Bitcoin is a slightly different animal per accounting rules. Tesla had the choice to mark it to market, or just hold it until selling, at which point they book the gain/loss. The only issue is that Tesla needs to be consistent period to period. Once they first mark it to market, they must do that every period.

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

This bias towards Tesla is getting old. Instead of just complaining about it here, can we do some grass roots efforts to call some of it out?
Specifically the ratings agencies, S&P and Moodys…
Here are a couple of ideas, anyone with other ideas please chime in.
A) start a change .com petition. We need someone articulate and with solid data to write it up. @Artful Dodger had a good spreadsheet above. We then use our TMC power to spread it here and on social media.
B) get contact info for the agencies, post it here with a sample of a draft email so we can all let them know how obvious their bias is.

 

[Ogre]

oh yea the genius of paying someone at the end to say "you can't deny that competition is coming".

Well lady, I do deny that. I say you either don't know what you are talking about or you are paid to lie.

I wish just once someone would point out that the competition has been here all along.

Teslas market share was 0% not long ago.

 

[kcveins]

♫ One of these things is not like the others ♫

Tesla Debt metrics vs other automakers.2022-04-23​

View attachment 796929

Credit Rating Agencies consider all other Auto majors as "investment grade" except Ford, who they rate the same as Tesla. Embarassing for both industries.

#S&P #Moody's #Credit

I'm still confused about the number 2 company...

 

[dl003]

AMZN has to adjust its RIVN investment to its fair value which is around $35 a share. Whether it got in as an angel investor or as a market participant has no bearing.

TSLA unfortunately can only mark its BTC investment down due to a difference in crypto asset regulation.

 

[MikeC]

Interesting texts between Elon and Saudi Arabia on why Funding Secured fell apart. We really dodged a bullet (or a bonesaw) - it looks like Tesla could have very easily been privately owned by Saudi Arabia right now if they hadn't dragged their feet and pissed off Elon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518353213283442688

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

I sure hope I get it. My 10.2 has deteriorated and is currently unusable. Strange because it was fairly good for the last few months.

It needs more than just "many improvements." Driving with FSD on city streets is stressful - you're just an unpaid test driver at this point.

 

[mickificki]

So, what was wrong with my picture, please?

Welcome to TMC! Have always enjoyed your tweets, hope you stick around.

 

[AudubonB]

A bunch of non-Tesla posts removed; my apologies to the responsible members of this community that I was not able to get all of them.