Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

When Tesla reaches $2000, first order of business is we all retire and take Math fraction / multiplication classes.

 

[Accident]

Does anyone have a link for this? Hate to post something I can’t get confirmation of but it’s from our own @avoigt, so I trust it’s accurate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518644819438022656

Not a lot of info, but I found a source in German. Avis nimmt Tesla Model 3 und Y in deutsche Mietwagenflotte auf

 

[Cherry Wine]

I admit I'm a bit puzzled and annoyed by today's action. Is Wall Street THIS clueless as to what Q1 earnings announcement means? Or they still haven't absorbed it even though we are now at day 3 after announcement? Or are they so short-sighted that all they can think about is a potential hit to Q2 numbers due to Shanghai shutdown?

Or am I just being delusional thinking it's so obvious that TSLA is going to dominate several huge markets and the stock price should reflect this inevitability?

I was fully ready to accept a down day based on macros. But to see the SP underperform QQQ and many high-growth stocks is baffling to me.

I'm actually prepared to see TSLA go down on a confirmed Twitter acquisition by Elon based on uncertainty around how he finances it (sell TSLA?) and whether it will distract him significantly.

 

[wtlloyd]

When Tesla reaches $2000, first order of business is we all retire and take Math fraction / multiplication classes.

I've been thinking for some time of tying inheritance bequests to tiered levels of financial degree achievement.

 

[BornToFly]

I admit I'm a bit puzzled and annoyed by today's action. Is Wall Street THIS clueless as to what Q1 earnings announcement means? Or they still haven't absorbed it even though we are now at day 3 after announcement? Or are they so short-sighted that all they can think about is a potential hit to Q2 numbers due to Shanghai shutdown?

Or am I just being delusional thinking it's so obvious that TSLA is going to dominate several huge markets and the stock price should reflect this inevitability?

I was fully ready to accept a down day based on macros. But to see the SP underperform QQQ and many high-growth stocks is baffling to me.

Funny, I thought the same thing every quarter from around 2014-2019. I rage bought so many shares it ended up making a multi-millionaire, so it's all good now....

(In other words - don't worry. The spring is being compressed again).

 

[ZeApelido]

I've been thinking for some time of tying inheritance bequests to tiered levels of financial degree achievement.

I accept your offer.

 

[Speedr117]

I am not sure about this assertion. I posted my thoughts on the Elon / Twitter thread, but I believe this conversation is on topic here.

Elon & Twitter

remainder from Morgan Stanley ... and from a “Commitment Party” list by M/S which reads like a who's who of Wall St.) :D Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc. (“MSSF”) Bank of America N.A. (“BOFA”) Barclays Bank plc (“Barclays”) MUFG Bank Ltd. (“MUFG”) Credit Suisse AG Cayman Islands Branch...

teslamotorsclub.com

feel free to disagree, but I think Elon does need to raise some liquidity to close this deal, and at the moment he unfortunately has only one liquid vehicle to do that.

Two words: Private Equity! I forget who all said they'd go in with him on it.

 

[Discoducky]

Funny, I thought the same thing every quarter from around 2014-2019. I rage bought so many shares it ended up making a multi-millionaire, so it's all good now....

(In other words - don't worry. The spring is being compressed again).

Rage buying and diamond HODL has worked out for me as well since joining this forum. I knew it was time to buy more when I heard things like

"Are you going to sell since TSLA dropped so much today?" or "Should I buy or wait for a dip?"

I'm talking to another friend today on this very topic!

 

[WattsHappening]

Nobody likes to hear it, and I'm beating a dead horse, but max pain is 1005 this week. Without adequate buying pressure/volume TSLA gets pegged to max pain because it's options market is massive.

When sufficient large interests begin accumulating it'll skyrocket. Could be tomorrow, July 25th, Nov 28th, or anytime in between. I don't see any way in hell we go beyond 3Q earnings for the next massive run up.

Right. I guess I'm confused as to why there isn't sufficient large interests starting to accumulate when it seems just so obvious to me.

Funny, I thought the same thing every quarter from around 2014-2019. I rage bought so many shares it ended up making a multi-millionaire, so it's all good now....

(In other words - don't worry. The spring is being compressed again).

Ya, good call and good advice (to not worry). And I'm not worried. Just annoyed.

 

[StealthP3D]

What a weird comment.

Non-Tesla EVs sell just fine. The good ones sell at a premium to their MSRP. Most of the problem is auto makers either don't want to or can't build enough of them.

I guess when they are choosing the narrative here saying they are incompetent at manufacturing doesn't mesh with their world view.

That's all true and I especially like that you pointed out that most people assume that legacy auto companies are good at manufacturing. Of course, we know that is simply because no one has showed them what it truly means to be good at manufacturing, at least not until Tesla came around. And that's going to take a while to sink in with most people.

It should also be pointed out that while non-Tesla EV's have been selling just fine, even at a premium to their MSRP's, that is a function of the low volume of production. Cars are in short supply and especially EV's. Total auto sales are way down and prices are up. However, as EV volumes ramp, the prices will have to come down or cars will just sit on the lots. Tesla will have to reduce prices too and Tesla knows this. That's why it's a good thing they currently have such high margins. In my opinion, a car like the Mach-e cannot sell at high volume even at 10% below the current MSRP. And the current MSRP leaves very little profit for the stealerships so they have little incentive to sell them at MSRP. And Ford has little incentive to drop MSRP because they would lose more money the more cars they sell. So, no, I don't think the Mach-e can sell at high volume even if Ford manages to make them 10% more efficiently.

How well a particular car sells is always a function of how much it costs and therefore it cannot be sold in high volumes if it cannot be manufactured to a low enough price point. The Mach-e only appears to be selling well, and at a high price, because it is only available in low volumes.

 

[jbcarioca]

Brown Bros. Harriman, Goodbody & Co, Cyrus J Lawrence, EF Hutton, First Boston…

Oops. Am I dating myself?

Or just outing myself?

Elderly ones among us appear to share historical perspective. I dealt with Dillon, Read perhaps because a graduate school colleague was there. A fan of Brown Bros as well, one reason being they were one of a tiny number who were grandfathered in the McFadden Act so had branches in three states. IN 1994 all that went away and generated lots of income for a few people, doing mergers.

Now if Tesla could find a handy Federal law that permitted direct sales and servicing of automobiles all would be quite glorious.

 

[ZeApelido]

Guys, if you think Twitter is a TSLAQ cesspool, I don't think you could stand r/RealTesla.

I nestled my way inside, and let me tell you, these people are nuts. Banning threats came faster than even from Audobon for violating "Rule 4" (basically saying anything pro-Tesla).

I was also heavily downvoted and called a liar for saying Austin Model Y's had 4680 cells in them.

But wish me luck, I'll be going back in the trenches, this time in a full latex suit to avoid contacting any mental diseases.

 

[Ogre]

That's all true and I especially like that you pointed out that most people assume that legacy auto companies are good at manufacturing. Of course, we know that is simply because no one has showed them what it truly means to be good at manufacturing, at least not until Tesla came around. And that's going to take a while to sink in with most people.

It should also be pointed out that while non-Tesla EV have been selling just fine, even at a premium to their MSRP's, but that is a function of the low volume of production. Cars are in short supply and especially EV's. Total auto sales are way down and prices are up. However, as EV volumes ramp, the prices will have to come down or cars will just sit on the lots. Tesla will have to reduce prices too and Tesla knows this. That's why it's a good thing they currently have such high margins. In my opinion, a car like the Mach-e cannot sell at high volume even at 10% below the current MSRP. And the current MSRP leaves very little profit for the stealerships so they have little incentive to sell them at MSRP. And Ford has little incentive to drop MSRP because they would lose more money the more cars they sell. So, no, I don't think the Mach-e can sell at high volume even if Ford manages to make them 10% more efficiently.

How well a particular car sells is always a function of how much it costs and therefore it cannot be sold in high volumes if it cannot be manufactured to a low enough price point. The Mach-e only appears to be selling well, and at a high price, because it is only available in low volumes.

Indeed.

We won't truly see what demand for Teslas or non-Teslas is until finally reach some kind of supply/ demand parity. Once people are able to buy a Tesla within a few days of ordering, the situation is likely to shift and those premiums are likely to vanish.

This is breathing room for legacy to figure out how to make cars profitably. Of course they didn't take advantage of the previous 10+ years breathing room, but you never know. One or two companies might figure it out.

 

[Curt Renz]

Brown Bros. Harriman, Goodbody & Co, Cyrus J Lawrence, EF Hutton, First Boston…

Oops. Am I dating myself?

Or just outing myself?

WCIU-TV "Stock Market Observer" November 10, 1995:

 

[Prunesquallor]

I've been thinking for some time of tying inheritance bequests to tiered levels of financial degree achievement.

Dad! I finally found you!

 

[Cal1]

In my experience the share price should not be used to determine how well a company is doing. Thinking that way is what causes people to buy bad stocks at their all-time highs and sell good stocks at bargain basement prices. If the share price of every company always reflected the true value of a company, there would be no reason to buy one company over another. Using the share price to judge how well a company is doing would have made Nikola a great company for the summer of 2020. The fact is the market is often wrong and it happens in both directions. This is not Tesla's fault or the fault of shareholders such as (presumably) yourself.

Given Tesla's continued exceptional performance, especially in the face of hardships that are bringing other players to their knees, I think posts giving insight into Tesla's outstanding performance should be welcomed and celebrated, not treated as if they are unwanted. Not many companies (any?) have been executing as well as Tesla. Did you read Tesla's most recent quarterly report? Maybe print it up, along with the investor presentation and give it to your wife. Or, read it yourself so you can explain it to your wife. Complaining that it's hard to explain to your wife makes me think you might not understand the underlying fundamentals and trends that make TSLA such a compelling investment going forward. And in hindsight for that matter.

So what is a stock price suppose to represent? You buy shares for ownership in a company. The value of those shares represent both public opinion and actual financial strength. It is not based on book value but financial analysts throw around the terms undervalued and overvalued quite a bit. So there should be some degree of relationship between Tesla's extraordinary success. I'm intimately aware of the quarterly report and all the emphasis by Youtuber's.

Let's get something straight Tesla doesn't pay dividends. So what else do I have besides hopeful stock price appreciation? I have gone over all incredibly positive events Berlin, Austin, new cell development, lack of batteries for OEM's, market domination in both Europe and China with the wife. Telsa's debt is ludicrously small expecially compared to other OEMs. It's why she asked the question in the first place. While everything says Tesla is in a GREAT (both long and short term) we are seeing really poor correlation. One day or even a few hours impact. I predicted this last week in a prior post.

What if the stock price stagnates here after Austin and Berlin get fully ramped up? Will you still feel like it's ok or to be expected?

 

[Krugerrand]

Nobody likes to hear it, and I'm beating a dead horse, but max pain is 1005 this week. Without adequate buying pressure/volume TSLA gets pegged to max pain because it's options market is massive.

When sufficient large interests begin accumulating it'll skyrocket. Could be tomorrow, July 25th, Nov 28th, or anytime in between. I don't see any way in hell we go beyond 3Q earnings for the next massive run up.

So. After Q3 earnings then. How do we still have people here who don’t know how this works?! You were doing so good, until the last sentence.

 

[generalenthu]

Two words: Private Equity! I forget who all said they'd go in with him on it.

PE will be involved. But Elon won't settle for a minority position in a private Twitter. He absolutely knows his wings can be clipped at anytime in that situation. The whole point of taking Twitter private will be moot.

 

[Speedr117]

PE will be involved. But Elon won't settle for a minority position in a private Twitter. He absolutely knows his wings can be clipped at anytime in that situation. The whole point of taking Twitter private will be moot.

As someone else pointed out, the $21 billion is 49%, so I completely agree with you.

 

[Krugerrand]

So what is a stock price suppose to represent?

What if the stock price stagnates here after Austin and Berlin get fully ramped up? Will you still feel like it's ok or to be expected?

It represents unicorns and bridge trolls and the price of tea in China. No. Really.

It’s all just made up and make believe and ever changing. A bunch of crooks and their computers trading back and forth amongst themselves and pickpocketing innocents now and again. Well, except the unicorns. They exist on every other Tuesday and French holidays.

It won’t stagnate. It might pause, take a dive, recover, dive again, swim for shore, but it will go up by the time Austin and Berlin are fully ramped.

Breathe. Patience. Hold.