I always wonder in situations like this, where we here at TMC know what the next three years are going to look like (awesome), why the market doesn't? The answer that always comes back is that we really do know Tesla better than most of the market...
Yes, we do know Tesla better, but not nearly more than you might think. I discovered they know Tesla pretty well too, they just lie about it because lying makes them more money by creating volatility. Sometimes they lie for so long they begin to believe their own lies.
There’s a limited amount of money to be made if a stock is always moving in lock step with the company’s broad achievements or failures - read, based on material information given out 4xs/yr on ER calls and the odd additional time in between.
However, if you can convince others and even yourself that something else is going on contrary to the evidence (false narratives - positive or negative) then voila inaccurate values applied to companies all the bloody time. And that means volatility in pricing, which means there’s more money to be made. Additionally, add in a healthy serving of the human condition and purposely stoke fear of the unknown and bam!
*They* created the PURPOSEFUL irrationality and the PURPOSEFUL inaccuracy of the market, not by ignorance but by telling tales. They run into buildings yelling fire to create panic. And the one time the theater is really on fire, rather than help put it out they stand on the other side and stoke it. Sometimes they even set themselves on fire.
Let me give you a snippet of conversation:
Them: If you transfer your account to us, this is what we’ll do - *some complicated, convoluted, oily shenanigans to diversify my holdings that nobody could unpack with a grenade* (Lie #1)
Me: We aren’t diversifying.
Them: *determined, I got this, look*. What if something happens to Elon or he walks away from Tesla. His involvement is worth a 20% premium to the stock price. (Lie #2)
Me: Oh, like the 20% you just dropped the stock after a killer Q1? (spouse gives me the *you did not just go there?, look*. I respond with the *how long have we been married? Of course I went there, look*.
)
Them: *smirk, oh crap, regroup*. (Lie #3) That’s true, Tesla did have an epic earnings, but (here comes lies 4 thru 69 all while trying, but failing, to keep a straight face) there’s been some uncertainty about his Twitter deal, macro events like the ongoing Ukrainian war, other macro events related to the pandemic, possible Fed interest rate hikes, blah, blah, blah…
Me: We aren’t diversifying one single share.
The whole thing is an endless, ribbon donned, tail-chasing dog with them constantly tying new pieces of evermore colorful ribbons to keep it going.
I was never able to determine if GJ and his ilk were just that stupid or if everything was an elaborate charade. I know now it’s the latter. Where they run into personal disaster is when they forget it’s all a lie and begin to believe it.
It's really hard to quantify this I think. Some routes have me turning every half mile, others might have miles of straight roads. Which trip should be considered as more relevant?
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