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A couple randomish thoughts on the auto industry.

1. I've got a 2005 vehicle, one that has very low miles, used very little. It recently required rebuilding of the front end in hopes of improving it such that we can take a total 30 hour road trip. After repairs, noted that the vehicle had a vibration that got significantly worse above 65 mph. I hated the idea of more work on an old clunker and pondered a new vehicle. Insights:
-nobody is making the equivalent of a $35K tesla. There are no stripped down work trucks available, only trucks with lots of crap packages added on, each raising the price a lot.
-likely well known, but nothing is available on the lots, just for ordering or accepting en route vehicles.
-all prices came across as inflated, stick it to you.
-These vehicles ALL seemed to offer little in regards to improved capability to my 2005 model. I have the money to buy anything on the market but all of the choices were uninspiring, especially compared to our Tesla and planned CT purchase. Nothing to inspire passion!

2. Background. I had a problem with a tire in our old model 3, think it needed a plug. I went to one family run shop in my area, a name associated with tires, okay, the only shop associated with tires in my mind. As the family of owners grew, they branched out and opened more stores. When I went in with the problem, without even looking at the car, they dismissed me out of the store, said they would not work on it because of the foam. I'd seen the inside of a tesla tire, no big deal to fix a plug. They were almost ugly in their reaction, would not talk further. I went to another car service/tire shop. They looked at the tire, spent some time talking amongst themselves, seemed willing to help, but did not work on it. They were hesitant. So, unable to obtain service to smaller local shops I went to a discount tire location. While explaining the problem to the customer service rep they stopped me short when asking about special pucks to lift the car up with, they knew all about them. Within a few minutes my car was on the lift, they plugged it, and I was on my way home. NO CHARGE to plug the tire, I had not bought from them. I watched the shop work for a bit, seemed like a well oiled machine, I would hire every one of the workers.

So, internet search of my truck problems suggested I needed to look at tire pressure, tire rotation, tire balancing, tire defects, then progress to looking at frame issues. I made an appointment with Discount Tire. When the tech put my first tire on the balancer he had to add some weight. Spun the tire again, needed more. Still needed more so he brought in a 2nd guy, Then a third. The tire was badly cupped, required replacement. Once again, discount tire solved a problem for me.

Noted:
Ice vehicles are uninspiring after owning tesla.
Ice service businesses will die along with ICE as they are not adapting.
New business entrants can offer better value and service.

Long Term Bullish.
 
One of the main UK tv channels will have this program on tomorrow:

It will be interesting to see what they get right. Although the blurb is wrong as it says he has already bought Twitter.
What will be interesting is if they give an accurate picture of the impact of Tesla and Spacex as a large post of the audience will not be as informed as we are.
 
One of the main UK tv channels will have this program on tomorrow:

It will be interesting to see what they get right. Although the blurb is wrong as it says he has already bought Twitter.
What will be interesting is if they give an accurate picture of the impact of Tesla and Spacex as a large post of the audience will not be as informed as we are.
I would not bother watching. Channel 4 is sadly, clickbait TV masquerading as serious journalism. I fully expect lots of bullshit about children mining cobalt and emerald mines and apartheid. The chances of this being factual are zero. As far as channel 4's clickbait writers are concerned, the man has a lot of paper-wealth, and therefore is evil. They will not care one bit about the facts.

I've given up expecting ANY press that has advertising of reporting anything on Tesla or Elon. I just assume its all flat out lies.
 
Not sure if this had been posted (I had been away on the first international trip since the you-know-what):


FSD is the easiest to achieve in the USA (and perhaps EU) when in the rest of the world people drive in between lanes and motorcycles weaving in and out between cars.
Sadly, this new release reflects a very limited and poor effort on AAA's part.

After watching the AAA B-Role and skimming the 35-page PDF report, let's be perfectly clear here: the headline SHOULD have been:

ADAS in Three-year old Tesla Model 3 far outperforms two other brands
 
A couple randomish thoughts on the auto industry.

1. I've got a 2005 vehicle, one that has very low miles, used very little. It recently required rebuilding of the front end in hopes of improving it such that we can take a total 30 hour road trip. After repairs, noted that the vehicle had a vibration that got significantly worse above 65 mph. I hated the idea of more work on an old clunker and pondered a new vehicle. Insights:
-nobody is making the equivalent of a $35K tesla. There are no stripped down work trucks available, only trucks with lots of crap packages added on, each raising the price a lot.
-likely well known, but nothing is available on the lots, just for ordering or accepting en route vehicles.
-all prices came across as inflated, stick it to you.
-These vehicles ALL seemed to offer little in regards to improved capability to my 2005 model. I have the money to buy anything on the market but all of the choices were uninspiring, especially compared to our Tesla and planned CT purchase. Nothing to inspire passion!

2. Background. I had a problem with a tire in our old model 3, think it needed a plug. I went to one family run shop in my area, a name associated with tires, okay, the only shop associated with tires in my mind. As the family of owners grew, they branched out and opened more stores. When I went in with the problem, without even looking at the car, they dismissed me out of the store, said they would not work on it because of the foam. I'd seen the inside of a tesla tire, no big deal to fix a plug. They were almost ugly in their reaction, would not talk further. I went to another car service/tire shop. They looked at the tire, spent some time talking amongst themselves, seemed willing to help, but did not work on it. They were hesitant. So, unable to obtain service to smaller local shops I went to a discount tire location. While explaining the problem to the customer service rep they stopped me short when asking about special pucks to lift the car up with, they knew all about them. Within a few minutes my car was on the lift, they plugged it, and I was on my way home. NO CHARGE to plug the tire, I had not bought from them. I watched the shop work for a bit, seemed like a well oiled machine, I would hire every one of the workers.

So, internet search of my truck problems suggested I needed to look at tire pressure, tire rotation, tire balancing, tire defects, then progress to looking at frame issues. I made an appointment with Discount Tire. When the tech put my first tire on the balancer he had to add some weight. Spun the tire again, needed more. Still needed more so he brought in a 2nd guy, Then a third. The tire was badly cupped, required replacement. Once again, discount tire solved a problem for me.

Noted:
Ice vehicles are uninspiring after owning tesla.
Ice service businesses will die along with ICE as they are not adapting.
New business entrants can offer better value and service.

Long Term Bullish.
Vibrations that increase with speed are often alignment related—specifically caster. Tire balance vibrations tend to fo in and out at various speeds.
 
A couple randomish thoughts on the auto industry.

1. I've got a 2005 vehicle, one that has very low miles, used very little. It recently required rebuilding of the front end in hopes of improving it such that we can take a total 30 hour road trip. After repairs, noted that the vehicle had a vibration that got significantly worse above 65 mph. I hated the idea of more work on an old clunker and pondered a new vehicle. Insights:
-nobody is making the equivalent of a $35K tesla. There are no stripped down work trucks available, only trucks with lots of crap packages added on, each raising the price a lot.
-likely well known, but nothing is available on the lots, just for ordering or accepting en route vehicles.
-all prices came across as inflated, stick it to you.
-These vehicles ALL seemed to offer little in regards to improved capability to my 2005 model. I have the money to buy anything on the market but all of the choices were uninspiring, especially compared to our Tesla and planned CT purchase. Nothing to inspire passion!

2. Background. I had a problem with a tire in our old model 3, think it needed a plug. I went to one family run shop in my area, a name associated with tires, okay, the only shop associated with tires in my mind. As the family of owners grew, they branched out and opened more stores. When I went in with the problem, without even looking at the car, they dismissed me out of the store, said they would not work on it because of the foam. I'd seen the inside of a tesla tire, no big deal to fix a plug. They were almost ugly in their reaction, would not talk further. I went to another car service/tire shop. They looked at the tire, spent some time talking amongst themselves, seemed willing to help, but did not work on it. They were hesitant. So, unable to obtain service to smaller local shops I went to a discount tire location. While explaining the problem to the customer service rep they stopped me short when asking about special pucks to lift the car up with, they knew all about them. Within a few minutes my car was on the lift, they plugged it, and I was on my way home. NO CHARGE to plug the tire, I had not bought from them. I watched the shop work for a bit, seemed like a well oiled machine, I would hire every one of the workers.

So, internet search of my truck problems suggested I needed to look at tire pressure, tire rotation, tire balancing, tire defects, then progress to looking at frame issues. I made an appointment with Discount Tire. When the tech put my first tire on the balancer he had to add some weight. Spun the tire again, needed more. Still needed more so he brought in a 2nd guy, Then a third. The tire was badly cupped, required replacement. Once again, discount tire solved a problem for me.

Noted:
Ice vehicles are uninspiring after owning tesla.
Ice service businesses will die along with ICE as they are not adapting.
New business entrants can offer better value and service.

Long Term Bullish.
Discount Tire changed the tires on my Model 3. Had the exact ones needed, had the pucks, full visibility into service bay, knew about resetting the tire pressure sensor.

Good experience.
 
A couple randomish thoughts on the auto industry.

1. I've got a 2005 vehicle, one that has very low miles, used very little. It recently required rebuilding of the front end in hopes of improving it such that we can take a total 30 hour road trip. After repairs, noted that the vehicle had a vibration that got significantly worse above 65 mph. I hated the idea of more work on an old clunker and pondered a new vehicle. Insights:
-nobody is making the equivalent of a $35K tesla. There are no stripped down work trucks available, only trucks with lots of crap packages added on, each raising the price a lot.
-likely well known, but nothing is available on the lots, just for ordering or accepting en route vehicles.
-all prices came across as inflated, stick it to you.
-These vehicles ALL seemed to offer little in regards to improved capability to my 2005 model. I have the money to buy anything on the market but all of the choices were uninspiring, especially compared to our Tesla and planned CT purchase. Nothing to inspire passion!

2. Background. I had a problem with a tire in our old model 3, think it needed a plug. I went to one family run shop in my area, a name associated with tires, okay, the only shop associated with tires in my mind. As the family of owners grew, they branched out and opened more stores. When I went in with the problem, without even looking at the car, they dismissed me out of the store, said they would not work on it because of the foam. I'd seen the inside of a tesla tire, no big deal to fix a plug. They were almost ugly in their reaction, would not talk further. I went to another car service/tire shop. They looked at the tire, spent some time talking amongst themselves, seemed willing to help, but did not work on it. They were hesitant. So, unable to obtain service to smaller local shops I went to a discount tire location. While explaining the problem to the customer service rep they stopped me short when asking about special pucks to lift the car up with, they knew all about them. Within a few minutes my car was on the lift, they plugged it, and I was on my way home. NO CHARGE to plug the tire, I had not bought from them. I watched the shop work for a bit, seemed like a well oiled machine, I would hire every one of the workers.

So, internet search of my truck problems suggested I needed to look at tire pressure, tire rotation, tire balancing, tire defects, then progress to looking at frame issues. I made an appointment with Discount Tire. When the tech put my first tire on the balancer he had to add some weight. Spun the tire again, needed more. Still needed more so he brought in a 2nd guy, Then a third. The tire was badly cupped, required replacement. Once again, discount tire solved a problem for me.

Noted:
Ice vehicles are uninspiring after owning tesla.
Ice service businesses will die along with ICE as they are not adapting.
New business entrants can offer better value and service.

Long Term Bullish.

Here in PA new Tesla's are sold uninspected, so new Tesla buyers need to get their cars inspected on their own within two weeks of purchase. Tesla service centers in PA are NOT allowed to inspect new Tesla's because to do so they would need to be registered emission inspection stations (per PA's laws) and this would require Tesla service centers to allow inspecting ANY cars owned by ANYone. This includes ICE cars. Tesla does not want to bother inspecting ICE cars in PA so they ask new Tesla buyers to get their own new cars inspected.

NOW, upon buying my Model Y last December I started the process of calling local garages around me to get the MY inspected. Much so my surprise this was a very difficult process, most service centers around me in PA refused to do anything with Tesla cars.

Eventually I found a privately owned family garage about an hour from me who not only serviced Tesla's, but both the husband and wife owners owned their own Tesla's as well, and they even had a few Chargepoint chargers installed outside too. So I drive up there and much to my surprise this little garage was bustling with EV customers! Tesla's, Polestars, an ID4, a Mach-E, getting inspections, tires, minor service, all kinds of stuff done. This was not an EV only garage but because they were willing to work on EV's they were getting huge amounts of business thrown their way. I chatted with the one owner for a bit, she said they were actively looking for a larger location to move into because business was booming. EV owners were driving hours simply to have this garage service their EV's. It was fun, I got to see a Polestar up close and even sit in it, I chatted with other EV owners, and I'll be going back to this little garage when my Tesla ever needs tires or inspection again.

Just like the auto manufacturing industry, other support businesses who refuse to change with the EV movement will eventually go out of business. Many service garages will die unless they admit reality and adapt to the wave of change. This is already starting to take place, change is happening right now.
 
I think it was you, @Artful Dodger , who shared this link to the max pain chart a couple of weeks ago.

I'm curious to know how predictable max pain is? Has any one done statistics on the accuracy of max pain in 'anticipating' the SP at the end of the week? At least directionally (e.g. "price went down towards max pain 68.9% of every week since 2019"), if not to the dollar?

The upcoming week doesn't look like broad consensus on max pain compared to other weeks, with perhaps only 20% of bets so far being within $50 of $900 max pain for May 20th. This too could be used as a factor in the strength of the max pain indicator to predict the week end SP.

Paging @Papafox and any other statisticians too.

(This is probably well discussed in the options thread, which I don't monitor - if so, sorry mods)

1652622411672.png
 
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Indonesian President Widodo visits Starbase. Pretty wild snapshots, given the context. Musk may visit Indonesia in November.

Elon can really turn on a good publicity campaign when he needs to. It would be hard to compete with that to prove to Indonesia that their nickel is in good hands and that Elon can provide technological development to the country.
 
I'm curious to know how predictable max pain is? Has any one done statistics on the accuracy of max pain in 'anticipating' the SP at the end of the week? At least directionally (e.g. "price went down towards max pain 68.9% of every week since 2019"), if not to the dollar?

The upcoming week doesn't look like broad consensus on max pain compared to other weeks, with perhaps only 20% of bets so far being within $50 of $900 max pain for May 20th. This too could be used as a factor in the strength of the max pain indicator to predict the week end SP.

Paging @Papafox and any other statisticians too.

If you follow the excellent daily TSLA trading thread by @Papafox you will see that he includes a chart of Max Pain evolution over time that is compiled by @JimS. Looking at that you can see that the MaxPain value moves through the week and often comes close to converging with the share price . However often it's not the MaxPain value itself but instead the cross-over point between Put and Call walls that the MM are actually targeting. I'm not sure if anyone has done any more detailed statistical analysis but expect that @JimS would have the relevant raw data on hand.

A lot of us trading options also pay very close attention to the Max Pain number, the Option OI chart and how it evolves over time. What I can say from my observations is that by about Thursday it is typically clear what target price the MM's will be aiming at based on the Options OI chart. When IV and trading volume is low I have noted that the MM's usually achieve their target, even if they need to manipulate the closing price to do so. However at times when IV is higher (say >50%) and/or volumes larger (much of the time recently) or there is some other news, then it is much harder for MM's to achieve a closing SP close to their target.

Edit: To look at historical Max Pain over time you can also head to: Swaggy Stocks They include a graph of historical max pain vs share price over time. Although you have to login to see history over 1 month (up to 1 year).
 
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Elon can really turn on a good publicity campaign when he needs to. It would be hard to compete with that to prove to Indonesia that their nickel is in good hands and that Elon can provide technological development to the country.
While I understand Far east political heads visiting Tesla factory with an intent to do business, why would they visit SpaceX site? except of course just for site seeing?
 
I think it was you, @Artful Dodger , who shared this link to the max pain chart a couple of weeks ago.

I'm curious to know how predictable max pain is? Has any one done statistics on the accuracy of max pain in 'anticipating' the SP at the end of the week? At least directionally (e.g. "price went down towards max pain 68.9% of every week since 2019"), if not to the dollar?

The upcoming week doesn't look like broad consensus on max pain compared to other weeks, with perhaps only 20% of bets so far being within $50 of $900 max pain for May 20th. This too could be used as a factor in the strength of the max pain indicator to predict the week end SP.

Paging @Papafox and any other statisticians too.

(This is probably well discussed in the options thread, which I don't monitor - if so, sorry mods)

View attachment 804577
Max pain is where MM pays the most to put buyers while screwing the most call buyers.
 
While I understand Far east political heads visiting Tesla factory with an intent to do business, why would they visit SpaceX site? except of course just for site seeing?
Because that's where Elon is and they're coming to meet Elon. You wouldn't seriously expect that Elon to depart from his busy schedule and have to travel to see them?
 
While I understand Far east political heads visiting Tesla factory with an intent to do business, why would they visit SpaceX site? except of course just for site seeing?
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon planned the location at spacex. Indonesia is hungry for technological progress. There are other companies that can show their leader a battery factory, but there's only one place on earth they can see this sort of technology and nation building, and that's at SpaceX. It's got to stick in Joko's mind when it comes time to make a decision around who will make best use of Indonesia's natural resources.
 
To anyone who understands the language, is there anymore interesting information revealed other than the fact that more than 4k vehicles will be loaded?
A dock worker is interviewed at the 1:15 mark.
If my memory is correct, I think you two know the language: @Singuy @Tommy O

I'm not a Mandarin speaker but I watched on Youtube with Closed Captions turned on. They work and appear to show a detailed English translation. Although I couldn't understand what they were talking about "tea business" at around the 1:50 mark. (so maybe not the best translation).