Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

I think this sums up the issue:

All subject crashes occurred on controlled-access highways. Where incident video was available, the approach to the first responder scene would have been visible to the driver an average of 8 seconds leading up to impact. Additional forensic data available for eleven of the collisions indicated that no drivers took evasive action between 2-5 seconds prior to impact, and the vehicle reported all had their hands on the steering wheel leading up to the impact. However, most drivers appeared to comply with the subject vehicle driver engagement system as evidenced by the hands-on wheel detection and nine of eleven vehicles exhibiting no driver engagement visual or chime alerts until the last minute preceding the collision (four of these exhibited no visual or chime alerts at all during the final Autopilot use cycle).

And I thought they already fixed this.

First look at Tesla Autopilot’s emergency vehicle response feature in action

Earlier this month, Tesla rolled out software update 2021.24.12, which included a new Autopilot and Autosteer feature that responds to the presence of stationary emergency vehicles on the road. With the new feature in place, Teslas would now slow down when they detect emergency vehicles such as...

www.teslarati.com

My bet is they will make Tesla issue a "recall" for something that was fixed months ago just to make big headlines.

 

[Usain]

One good performing stock will ALWAYS out-perform a fund containing a basket of 30-50 stocks, even if those stocks are successfully swing-traded. A fund returning 12% annually over a 10 year period would be considered outstanding!

What stock do you recommend?

 

[henchman24]

Ah I see TSLA is doing it's usual thing on these types of days.

Starts out up big, macro's go lower, TSLA get's walked down non-stop all day......macro's recover......TSLA doesn't

The macro hasn't recovered... it is simply hovering around the 30 day MA waiting for the CPI news tomorrow.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The macro hasn't recovered... it is simply hovering around the 30 day MA waiting for the CPI news tomorrow.

It was recovering up until 30 mins ago.

As for TSLA, down 4% from it's peak this morning. Nasdaq down 1%. They've walked TSLA down a large amount. I doubt it even ends the day positive.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Anyone know what this UBS 12% cut in 2022 EPS translates to? I can't seem to find a dollar figure for their estimate.

I couldn't find a number for UBS.

But the avg on Yahoo is $12.15 non-GAAP for 2022 and if UBS lowered 12% from there($10.7), they may be off by what....60-70% for the year? I think that's even a good 40% below @The Accountant 's conservative estimate.

That would be quite a "surprise" result. My guess is these analyst magically revise their 2022 estimates up 40% after 2Q earnings. How can they not?

 

[henchman24]

It was recovering up until 30 mins ago.

As for TSLA, down 4% from it's peak this morning. Nasdaq down 1%. They've walked TSLA down a large amount. I doubt it even ends the day positive.

And that was still down ~200 points from earlier this morning for the Nasdaq. That really isn't recovery. The whole market is simply waiting for tomorrow, and of course they are going to walk Tesla down. If CPI comes in light, Tesla will likely move ~7-8% up tomorrow and the 800 level needs protected. So it needs to be kept under 740.

 

[AndrewZ]

The Engineering Analysis investigation NHTSA just opened is not related to Phantom Braking. (It is related to crashes involving First Responder vehicles.)

I haven't seen NHTSA open an investigation into these types of crashes with any other vehicle manufacturer.

Affirmative

The NHTSA's investigation into Autopilot and First Responder scenes specifically was likely a reaction to first responders suing Tesla over these crashes, this is part of the regulatory response to action in the legal system

5 Texas police officers sue Tesla over ‘Autopilot’ crash

The officers are seeking damages for injuries and permanent disabilities

www.police1.com

We already know the drivers of these vehicles weren't paying attention, and the NHTSA doesn't expect these systems to perform flawlessly because the technology is far from perfect in its current state. The NHTSA is questioning driver monitoring and engagement processes and technology in place while these systems are active.

PE21-020 is upgraded to an Engineering Analysis (EA) to extend the existing crash analysis, evaluate additional data sets, perform vehicle evaluations, and to explore the degree to which Autopilot and associated Tesla systems may exacerbate human factors or behavioral safety risks by undermining the effectiveness of the driver’s supervision. In doing so, NHTSA plans to continue its assessment of vehicle control authority, driver engagement technologies, and related human factors considerations.

In my opinion, every vehicle nowadays should roll off the assembly line with eye tracking technology to help ensure driver engagement, and that's even more important when a system like Autopilot is active and people are all the more inclined to be distracted.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And that was still down ~200 points from earlier this morning for the Nasdaq. That really isn't recovery. The whole market is simply waiting for tomorrow, and of course they are going to walk Tesla down. If CPI comes in light, Tesla will likely move ~7-8% up tomorrow and the 800 level needs protected. So it needs to be kept under 740.

Yup that's my thoughts exactly and what is common on days like this when TSLA greatly outperforms on a day when the market is awaiting data news.

Walk it down to create a buffer for if the data comes in positive, to protect certain call walls.

 

[H Mak]

Ah I see TSLA is doing it's usual thing on these types of days.

Starts out up big, macro's go lower, TSLA get's walked down non-stop all day......macro's recover......TSLA doesn't

Its like the opposite of the mid morning dip. Aah those were the days ....

 

[StealthP3D]

Looks like both FTC and NHTSA are looking to make life harder today. NHTSA is upgrading its investigation from Prelim to Engineering analysis, and FTC wants to presumably look into the letters some congressmen have written in the past, most likely at the behest of auto dealers, etc. It all reeks of Dems wanting to show who the boss is.

Looking forward, this cannot help the Dems and the more people that become Tesla owners, the more people they turn off. Tesla is just hitting their stride in terms of volume sales so, at some point relatively soon, they need to wise up because that number continues to grow. The new car buying public is a demographic the Dems desperately need to help them win elections.

 

[JWM3]

Turns out even when other EV makes hit volume production.......they still can't even get themselves to profitability and struggle to get gross margins even half of what Tesla is hitting. Nio's gross margins went down from 17% to 14% and their forecast isn't for them to rebound anytime soon. BYD, who our favorite fake Tesla investor (Taylor Ogan) has hit volume for a few quarters in a row.................with absolutely dreadful margins.

I agree other auto makers doesn’t have good margins. However, I don’t understand how GM is able to lower so much on the price of Bolt. Do they make money on the $26K MSRP?

 

[SmokyPeat]

It was recovering up until 30 mins ago.

As for TSLA, down 4% from it's peak this morning. Nasdaq down 1%. They've walked TSLA down a large amount. I doubt it even ends the day positive.

Sheesh, what a ray of sunshine, lol. I'll take whatever green we can get on a red day for the macros.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Has the news about a Ford layoff hit the news stand yet? Like another one?
My source is hearsay unfortunately, someone related to a Ford employee. Let's leave this here to see if there are more announcements to come.
(My next thought was, is this not inevitable?) Splitting up Ford is getting real me hears. Hybrids and EVs?

Is the bill dead for Hybrid rebates? Literally asking for a friend.

 

[MP3Mike]

I agree other auto makers doesn’t have good margins. However, I don’t understand how GM is able to lower so much on the price of Bolt. Do they make money on the $26K MSRP?

They "make" money by getting the ZEV credits so they can continue to sell their profitable gas guzzling SUVs/Trucks.

 

[SmokyPeat]

They "make" money by getting the ZEV credits so they can continue to sell their gas guzzling SUVs/Trucks.

I doubt it's profitable at $26k even with ZEV credits accounted for. I think that pricing is more an act of desperation now that there are numerous better EV options available in the US. Both Tesla, and non Tesla. It should help to move some Bolts, though.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I doubt it's profitable at $26k even with ZEV credits accounted for. I think that pricing is more an act of desperation now that there are numerous better EV options available in the US. Both Tesla, and non Tesla. It should help to move some Bolts, though.

I think the key is to watch production volume. If it turns out that GM is barely making any of these, which I think is the more likely case, then the Bolt pricing is nothing more than a PR scheme to drum up interest where GM hopes that the image of the Bolt recovers and then they have more organic demand for next years model (which new much higher pricing)

 

[Ogre]

I doubt it's profitable at $26k even with ZEV credits accounted for. I think that pricing is more an act of desperation now that there are numerous better EV options available in the US. Both Tesla, and non Tesla. It should help to move some Bolts, though.

They likely won’t sell many either.

Seems like one of the tactics of the legacy brands, offer loss-leader type pricing for products which ship in very low volumes to get media and harvest regulatory credits.

See Also:
Ford Maverick Hybrid
Ford F-150 Lightning Pro trim ($40k)

 

[elasalle]

And now we know why Elon was asking for "pitbull" lawyers to seek employment with Tesla. Hopefully he's learned an aggressive defense is the best defense.

If NHTSA isn't requesting phantom breaking info from other manufs, they are opening themselves up to some serious bias claims. Wonder what the status of this investigation is:

1.7 million Hondas are being investigated for phantom braking

NHTSA has received 278 complaints about inappropriate automatic emergency braking.

arstechnica.com

MM
Hard to watch everything red and Tesla green ...
time to phone a friend .....


CPI news is a mixed bag.. all the luck for tomorrow

 

[ZeApelido]

My 4 year old daughter has always been a good troll, but this unintended trolling takes things up a notch.

"Daddy, can you pick out my pants?"

"Okay, which color do you want?"

"You can pick, as long as it's black"

 

[Singuy]

Yup that's my thoughts exactly and what is common on days like this when TSLA greatly outperforms on a day when the market is awaiting data news.

Walk it down to create a buffer for if the data comes in positive, to protect certain call walls.

How come MM never protect put walls? And we have more puts than calls during a bear market naturally. If MM are always fighting to protect themselves from these call/put walls, wouldn't stock goes UP when the sentiment goes down and vice versa?

I think we put too much weight in MM trying to protect expiring options when in fact the real reason Tesla moves one way or another is due to the act of building these walls(aka buying of such contracts) and not the act of trying to protect them.