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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
i wonder if this concern over our Shanghai factory and Chinese control could be addressed during the meeting coming up?
Reading past the clickbait headline requires I click on the clickbait link and read the clickbait article.
Something I do not as a habit do.
In the MunroLive first video of the Structural battery pack removal there are a number of interesting points:
My favorite single quotation was at 12:58:
Julian Sites weighed the Model Y structural battery pack at 1198 pounds. Cory Steuben then commented that competitor packs that Munro have weighed were twice as heavy, without the seats and interior that come with the structural pack.
In times past I recall estimating that Tesla could save as much as $500 per vehicle from the structural pack and the new paint shop. Even this first Munro look makes it clear that such an estimate is understated. Traditional OEM cost accounting for project planning uses a pound/ounce formula, now usually KG/G, where a change is valued according to weight.
The combination of structural battery pack, 4680 cells, front and rear gigacastings and the amazing paint shops:
Together present us with an unprecedented problem. There are so many huge cost, weight, labor (human and robotic) factors all being transformed that it is ludicrous to imagine how the traditional weight basis really works. It obviously does not since Austin 4680 cars are not materially lighter than are their Fremont counterparts.
Cost is another matter. Once the Munro teardown has been competed we will have very detailed comparisons between 2170 Fremont and Austin 4650. In the meantime it si already clear that Tesla is making very rapid progress in cost reduction and quality control, enough so to render historical processes of evaluation completely useless.
I will not guess how all this will look in three months, but I'm quite positive that Tesla process improvements are yielding cost reductions despite materials cost increases. Scaling all that new technology is so challenging that most of the world would not even try. When Shanghai, Grüneheide and Austin are through with the present grades we'll begin to understand.
Elon clearly is irritated that all this isn't working now is huge volumes. He'll feel better next month. So will we. As for me, I really want to run those numbers once Munro has finished!
My favorite single quotation was at 12:58:
Julian Sites weighed the Model Y structural battery pack at 1198 pounds. Cory Steuben then commented that competitor packs that Munro have weighed were twice as heavy, without the seats and interior that come with the structural pack.
In times past I recall estimating that Tesla could save as much as $500 per vehicle from the structural pack and the new paint shop. Even this first Munro look makes it clear that such an estimate is understated. Traditional OEM cost accounting for project planning uses a pound/ounce formula, now usually KG/G, where a change is valued according to weight.
The combination of structural battery pack, 4680 cells, front and rear gigacastings and the amazing paint shops:
Together present us with an unprecedented problem. There are so many huge cost, weight, labor (human and robotic) factors all being transformed that it is ludicrous to imagine how the traditional weight basis really works. It obviously does not since Austin 4680 cars are not materially lighter than are their Fremont counterparts.
Cost is another matter. Once the Munro teardown has been competed we will have very detailed comparisons between 2170 Fremont and Austin 4650. In the meantime it si already clear that Tesla is making very rapid progress in cost reduction and quality control, enough so to render historical processes of evaluation completely useless.
I will not guess how all this will look in three months, but I'm quite positive that Tesla process improvements are yielding cost reductions despite materials cost increases. Scaling all that new technology is so challenging that most of the world would not even try. When Shanghai, Grüneheide and Austin are through with the present grades we'll begin to understand.
Elon clearly is irritated that all this isn't working now is huge volumes. He'll feel better next month. So will we. As for me, I really want to run those numbers once Munro has finished!
ZachF
Active Member
Honestly, even though I express this concern I’d rather it not be addressed at a shareholder meeting.
It’s one of those things that by its nature drawing attention to it makes the concern more likely to come true.
Some people on this forum reaaaaallllly underestimate how thin skinned the CCP can be, and how hard they can over-react. (Xi has made this much much worse btw) THAT is my concern.
Just focus on ramping Berlin and Austin and building new factories.
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verystandard
Member
The more Gaga factories being built around the world, the more resilient the operations will be to any geo political risks
ZachF
Active Member
Yes.
This is why I’m a fan of “near-sourcing”, which Elon also seems to support in the long run.
Good:
Factories in North America for North America
Factories in Europe for Europe
Factories in China for China
Etc.
Krugerrand
Meow
No, I clearly stated I don’t care. The Big Fish are all a bunch of crooks spouting and doing whatever nonsense to appease The Sharks and line all their pockets. They’ll change their minds and positions when they’re forced to do so, so that they can make gobs more money on the other side of the bet and pat each other on the back for a job well done.
Why don’t I care? Because I have no control over the situation nor the power to make it as I believe it should be. Elon, though, by the day becomes more powerful and it’s my belief he will do something about it all, either directly or indirectly. I’m literally betting on it. In the meantime, I can wait on my mountain until the day I die or humanity implodes, which ever comes first.
You either rely on China to get to 20m cars at the quickest rate and at the highest margins or that doesn't happen. You will get mediocre margins relatively compared and slower ramp/ability to expand.
No where in the world can do this, and this is why China wins every time with everything. Notice that companies still sent their prototype and mass production to china fully knowing it will be copied illegally. The amount of skill workers in China is of abundance who are willing to accept a much lower pay and work 2x harder than anyone else. We can't even celebrate Chinese's hard work here in the US as Elon was citisized for saying the China team is harder working.
ZachF
Active Member
Just FYI on the early 4680 takedowns: don’t be surprised if they have a lot of engineering margin (read: extra weight) built into the first models that can be deleted later after being validated in the real world.
Krugerrand
Meow
Dude, seriously? They ARE taking steps to not depend on a single factory!!!! Where have you been??? In the meantime, flog the ever loving crap out of that Shanghai factory and get cars on the road.
Geesh!
Please stop posting political opinion. It's irritating and unnecessary.
There are many serious political issues around the world today.
This is the wrong place to discuss them.
Yeah I realize that would be a discussion spoken of in public very carefully. I was thinking that as I was formulating the comment
Am I crazy or has following Tesla been boring lately? Feels like we are stuck in this waiting mode. New products are still in limbo. New factories are slowly ramping. Stock is in purgatory etc.
I think boring is likely good here. Just allows for execution to matter more than anything else.
ZachF
Active Member
Once Cybertruck and Roadster are out in the wild it’ll get fun.
Should be about the same time it becomes the worlds most profitable automaker too!
A lot of China chatter on TMC today re new isolated Covid cases in China? This chatter seems to come from folks I don't recognize. China will be China. OTOH, CPI discussions would be more interesting - that's a for sure event today.
What are we anticipating on CPI, curbed inflation? I doubt it. What are the odds of good vs bad news on CPI. I'm feeling pretty negative on this, especially after viewing the video shared yesterday on how inflation is merely a tax hike (and a way reduce debt ratio). Anyone have their own inflation analysis? Does this continue?
Past few days, TSLA has been wanting to float higher on no news, like in the past hour. Everyone knows there's a solid production ramp ahead, combining the 4 factories (minus some upgrades). Maybe add some news on 4680 (obviously they are still withholding secrets that could be fruitful). Earnings, split, FSD/Vegas... lots of good stuff happening.
What are we anticipating on CPI, curbed inflation? I doubt it. What are the odds of good vs bad news on CPI. I'm feeling pretty negative on this, especially after viewing the video shared yesterday on how inflation is merely a tax hike (and a way reduce debt ratio). Anyone have their own inflation analysis? Does this continue?
Past few days, TSLA has been wanting to float higher on no news, like in the past hour. Everyone knows there's a solid production ramp ahead, combining the 4 factories (minus some upgrades). Maybe add some news on 4680 (obviously they are still withholding secrets that could be fruitful). Earnings, split, FSD/Vegas... lots of good stuff happening.
Not sure why you'd be bored. We just got 2nd quarter numbers. Math it up fuzz-ball.
It genuinely bothers me that this meme screwed up the lyrics. But then as hard as it is to understand Cobain I guess it's hard to blame them.
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