Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

However, I’ve had discussion with @Discoducky about this off this thread and he thinks that Tesla won’t use HD maps even in the Loop where HD maps would be much more reliable and maintainable than surface roads. I’ll let him comment more on that if he wants, but I was convinced.

Yep, several reasons why HD would be a poor choice for putting resources in the loop.

Training on HD maps would be a whole new code path that would essentially be throwaway work, a distraction for the AI teams, most likely postpone further FSD and be prone to corner case issues.

Training FSD with high likelihood images/video for specific needs of the loop makes much more practical and functional sense as it would add to the overall effectiveness of FSD. Eventually, all Tesla's will be allowed to drive in these tunnels so that is the path I think they will take.

 

[JRP3]

In the cell teardown video by the Limiting Factor they noted that the outer cell walls (steel) were quite thick (especially compared to earlier 4680 versions IIRC). One possibilitly is that they start conservatively with that too and might move to thinner walls as they gain driving and production experience?

What earlier versions of 4680 cells? No one that I'm aware of got their hands on an earlier version than this, which was acquired months ago. I'm fairly sure they were comparing the can thickness to conventional cylindrical cells which were never intended to be structural.

 

[henchman24]

...In other news, Rivian up 11% today after confirming they are on track for 25,000 BEV production for 2022.

Tesla is on track for 1,500,000 BEV production for 2022. So using Rivian's current market cap of $26B shouldn't Tesla have a comparible market cap of $1,560B now for its BEVs, not including the dozen or more other ventures of Tesla, from Energy storage, to Solar Roofs, FSD, Optimus, etc. Asking for a friend.

Rivian has been facing the old Tesla FUD of pure BS numbers. The 700 number was floated as fact when they actually did over 4k and there is a glimmer that 25k is possible for this year given their ramp. Stock is still overvalued until their opex calms down, but there is a good reason they are jumping today.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

We get it: You're afraid of China. But now you're just spreading FUD.

There is zero chance that ANY Chairman of the CCP drives off substantial foreign investment in China and REMAINS Chairman.

The chance is actually closer to 100 percent. It's like the end of the world. Eventually it's going to happen, we just don't know when. I don't give this enough near term likelihood to factor it into my investing at all, I'm 100% invested in Tesla, but China will eventually take that plant.

 

[Stormy24]

Fresh Covid outbreaks put millions under lockdown in China

Tens of millions of people were under lockdown in China on Wednesday as businesses in a major tourist city were forced to shut their doors and fresh clusters sparked fears of a return to blanket restrictions.

www.france24.com

Shutdown part 3? Let’s hope not!

 

[GOVA]

Fresh Covid outbreaks put millions under lockdown in China

Tens of millions of people were under lockdown in China on Wednesday as businesses in a major tourist city were forced to shut their doors and fresh clusters sparked fears of a return to blanket restrictions.

www.france24.com

Shutdown part 3? Let’s hope not!

What's up with those 'Stormys' lately?

 

[Discoducky]

but China will eventually take that plant.

Why do you think this and what timeline?

 

[larmor]

I wonder how much of the FUD is intended to deter buyers of Tesla stock vs deterring buyers of Tesla products

The FUD regarding tesla is purely to make money as a business off the market fluctuations of TSLA. TSLA remains highly reactive on an hourly, daily basis and percentage movement is higher than other securities in either direction. Reactivity is high as well. Remember five factories are online and daily headlines don't change their operations.

Advancements in the car are what deter buyers so the buyers won't miss out, but the same holds true for computers and phones to a lesser extent.

 

[Rarity]

The chance is actually closer to 100 percent. It's like the end of the world. Eventually it's going to happen, we just don't know when. I don't give this enough near term likelihood to factor it into my investing at all, I'm 100% invested in Tesla, but China will eventually take that plant.

The more relevant near-term risk seems to be that China would discourage continued capacity growth in the country, or measures to slow that growth.

 

[InDaClub]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544697701517991936

 

[Krugerrand]

Demonstrations of the uselessness, or worse, of a platform for which one has offered many tens of billions of dollars are not conducive to gaining either the respect of the world’s money managers, or the trillions of dollars they hold in fiduciary trust.
Just who is it you think will continue to invest in - and prop up - the shares of a company in which so many of us had the foresight to place our own trust and funds? “Elon is Elon, take him or leave him” paraphrases how you have responded in the past. It also answers why TSLA is not in the portfolios of many otherwise obvious investment portfolios and THAT - not “FUD-beguiled Market Makers” - is why its share price holds the pitiful P/CF and P/E it does. Too many sobersided, perspicacious yet responsible money managers cannot invest thusly.
Me? My own horizon differs; also, I can bear mercurial executives, non-comprehending clients as well as market buffeting. But Big Fish, representing countless trillions, cannot.

Of course it’s your opinion it’s all useless. Millions of people and bots think differently. You do you and avoid the wildly popular platform, but it will continue to exist regardless of your position. And quite likely as part of Elon’s empire.

Some Big Fish may think as you say they do; perhaps those you have or do currently associate with, but there are plenty of Big Fish who think differently and have a different agenda. Assume, if you will, some of us plebes have had conversations with a Big Fish or two in our day. Frankly, I find them loathsome, lying piles of poo. So, I’d obviously like to see an even greater shift of wealth out of the hands of these Big Fish into the hands of people who will do good with it; like Elon. Otherwise, I don’t care.

When I read your post I imagined you standing in front of a mirror reciting the ‘I hate Twitter’ mantra to convince your image to get on the same page.

To be perfectly clear, I don’t have a Twitter account. Not my cup of tea, but I understand a lot of people use it to communicate all that is on their minds and/or conduct business. I might get one, though, if Elon finishes buying it and implementing his vision. Can’t see having a need for it, but I’d be happy to pad his membership numbers in support of him trying to do the right thing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Meanwhile, the oil trade has finally cracked and the plummet to $60 has begun.

WTI/Brent down 8-10% yesterday and now another 4% today. Hopefully we get a good EIA report tomorrow for US stockpiles and it really starts to tank.

 

[2daMoon]

Well said Ms Kitty!

Likewise, I'm not a Twit user, and still understand and support Elon's Twitter purchase. It will serve the cause well.

 

[bkp_duke]

What earlier versions of 4680 cells? No one that I'm aware of got their hands on an earlier version than this, which was acquired months ago. I'm fairly sure they were comparing the can thickness to conventional cylindrical cells which were never intended to be structural.

Several individuals have gotten their hands ahold of early Kato Rd 4680 cells.

 

[Tommy O]

Not seeing Shanghai enter lockdowns again at this point, though it could still happen. Mass testing and some localized lockdowns in Shanghai occurred right after reopening and were sold in the media evidence of immediate lockdowns city wide. That didn’t happen.

There was a lot of activity at a warehouse near giga Shanghai that was speculated to be evidence that Tesla was loading up on components in case they needed to go closed loop again. During the Spring lockdowns, tesla initially announced they were going closed loop from the start before realizing they didn’t have all the supplies (probably including things like food for workers) to do so.

Near term, including over the next 12 months or so, the risk of subsequent suspension of production in Shanghai is real. Unfortunately, it’s going to be extremely hard to predict if/when it will happen and even harder to predict if tesla can simply go back to closed loop and continue to chug along.

For those worrying about the CCP nationalizing the Shanghai factory, consider that if that happens, other US companies (and possibly the whole world) will have bigger things to worry about than what’s happening to their stocks. It’s not worth thinking about as a specific concern to Tesla.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

About 10K of those were inventory from the previous month though, so the production for June was actually about 70K, which equates to a yearly run rate of 840,000 for Shanghai based on June production.

Of course it's a safe bet Shanghai will increase production over the June run rate soon, so the yearly run rate is an ever increasing target.

Wu Wa's video from the 1st shows lots of cars at the factory (about 3k I think), and I think there are some export versions at the port as well (can't find a reference at the moment). So I would guess there was 5k unsold inventory in China.

 

[ZachF]

That would be a major international incident. China would gain nothing and lose trillions in investments.

You know China has done this stuff before, right?


I really don’t understand this board’s tendency to simp for the CCP.

 

[ZachF]

We get it: You're afraid of China. But now you're just spreading FUD.

There is zero chance that ANY Chairman of the CCP drives off substantial foreign investment in China and REMAINS Chairman.

The chance may be low, but it’s not zero.

Chairman Xi has been doing loads of really stupid stuff lately. He recently nuked chinas tech sector “just ‘cause”.

 

[ZachF]

Yeah the most unfriendly place to invest on earth even though their gdp exploded due to foreign investments over the last 30 years /s

The only place I see a risk is the US with all that anti Elon and Tesla bashing by our government and MSM.

The conditions of the last 30 years are being undone by the current moron (Xi) in power. China respect of foreign property rights is in steep decline. China is becoming more insular and fascist at a rapid rate. Companies (including Apple btw) are moving their supply chain out of China for multiple reasons.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Why do you think this and what timeline?

For timeline, hopefully not in less than 100 years.

For why; China does what it deems best for China and the moment they conclude their best move is to take that plant they will do it. Regarding business practices, their code of ethics is basically whatever you can get away with. All is fair. Unless the business and government culture changes before it happens, they will eventually take that plant.