Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Wu Wa's video from the 1st shows lots of cars at the factory (about 3k I think), and I think there are some export versions at the port as well (can't find a reference at the moment). So I would guess there was 5k unsold inventory in China.

Yeah, Wu Wa's thumbnail from July 1st show the logistics lot is nearly empty. Not seeing 3K there.

 

[JRP3]

Several individuals have gotten their hands ahold of early Kato Rd 4680 cells.

Did they do testing on them, did they measure the wall thickness?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The conditions of the last 30 years are being undone by the current moron (Xi) in power. China respect of foreign property rights is in steep decline. China is becoming more insular and fascist at a rapid rate. Companies (including Apple btw) are moving their supply chain out of China for multiple reasons.

Calling a World Leader "the current moron" is NOT advancing the discussion, nor making your point. Bye.

 

[henchman24]

The chance may be low, but it’s not zero.

Chairman Xi has been doing loads of stupid stuff lately. He recently nuked chinas tech sector just cause.

I agree it isn't zero... just really, really unlikely in even a 5-10-15+ year timeframe.

Xi didn't attack the tech sector for a kick, he did it because it directly threatens party security and power. He's trying to show them how much power the CCP still has over everything (which is vast there).

I agree the China is taking a step back and becoming more fascist from even 10 years ago. But if anything happens to these big factories, the larger impact to the world's economy will be greater than what happens to Tesla

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The conditions of the last 30 years are being undone

Nothing needs to get undone. It's status quo in China and it always has been. Tenish years ago a company called Sinoval stole proprietary technology from a company called American Superconductor. They also stopped payment on goods received and stiffed the contract. The Chinese government did exactly zero to stop this and they gave no compensation. The dumb chump that sold the proprietary information was located in Europe so he went to jail. There was no consequence to Sinoval or China. This is just one example.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

For those worrying about the CCP nationalizing the Shanghai factory, consider that if that happens, other US companies (and possibly the whole world) will have bigger things to worry about than what’s happening to their stocks. It’s not worth thinking about as a specific concern to Tesla.

I think this is probably accurate.

 

[spacerfc]

For timeline, hopefully not in less than 100 years.

It's going to happen in the next 10 years so, when China attacks Taiwan. Should be obvious Xi is gearing up for a fight, and the relative strength between US and China in Asia will shift enough in the next 10 years to give him a chance to do so. I sure hope Elon has taken this into account when designing Master Plan Part 3.

 

[ZachF]

Calling a World Leader "the current moron" is NOT advancing the discussion, nor making your point. Bye.

Can’t criticize a brutal dictator who’s putting ethnic minorities into camps and single handedly undoing all of China’s progress they’ve made in the last 30 years… got it.

 

[hobbes]

What earlier versions of 4680 cells? No one that I'm aware of got their hands on an earlier version than this, which was acquired months ago. I'm fairly sure they were comparing the can thickness to conventional cylindrical cells which were never intended to be structural.

Hm, I thought I heard/read it somewhere, I´ll try to find it later.

 

[Singuy]

The conditions of the last 30 years are being undone by the current moron (Xi) in power. China respect of foreign property rights is in steep decline. China is becoming more insular and fascist at a rapid rate. Companies (including Apple btw) are moving their supply chain out of China for multiple reasons.

China added 5 trillion in gdp since he took office. That's a lot of undoing the past decade by him.

 

[AudubonB]

Of course it’s your opinion it’s all useless. Millions of people and bots think differently. You do you and avoid the wildly popular platform, but it will continue to exist regardless of your position. And quite likely as part of Elon’s empire.

Some Big Fish may think as you say they do; perhaps those you have or do currently associate with, but there are plenty of Big Fish who think differently and have a different agenda. Assume, if you will, some of us plebes have had conversations with a Big Fish or two in our day. Frankly, I find them loathsome, lying piles of poo. So, I’d obviously like to see an even greater shift of wealth out of the hands of these Big Fish into the hands of people who will do good with it; like Elon. Otherwise, I don’t care.

When I read your post I imagined you standing in front of a mirror reciting the ‘I hate Twitter’ mantra to convince your image to get on the same page.

To be perfectly clear, I don’t have a Twitter account. Not my cup of tea, but I understand a lot of people use it to communicate all that is on their minds and/or conduct business. I might get one, though, if Elon finishes buying it and implementing his vision. Can’t see having a need for it, but I’d be happy to pad his membership numbers in support of him trying to do the right thing.

What you are doing is avoiding the main point, which is demonstrating an important reason TSLA is not performing in a manner demonstrative of how well Tesla is performing: I put forth a cogent reason as to why TSLA is not more widely held.
Your piles of poo….well, perhaps they are just that.

 

[ZachF]

China added 5 trillion in gdp since he took office. That's a lot of undoing the past decade by him.

Shut the engines of a supertanker off and it takes a while to stop.

In property rights, civil rights, economic freedom, etc, China is regressing heavily.

(People use this argument to defend Putin btw)

 

[SmokyPeat]

Peak bickering. Rally mode engaged.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

It's going to happen in the next 10 years so, when China attacks Taiwan. Should be obvious Xi is gearing up for a fight, and the relative strength between US and China in Asia will shift enough in the next 10 years to give him a chance to do so. I sure hope Elon has taken this into account when designing Master Plan Part 3.

I'm of the opinion that the one good thing that has come from Russia invading Ukraine is it has caused China to think twice about taking Taiwan. I hope I'm not embracing that narrative to help me sleep at night.

 

[bkp_duke]

Did they do testing on them, did they measure the wall thickness?

Don't know the specifics. But it was widely reported of people having them in hand (YT videos, etc.) back in 2021.

 

[Max Plaid]

What's up with those 'Stormys' lately?

Obviously...

 

[Krugerrand]

Nothing needs to get undone. It's status quo in China and it always has been. Tenish years ago a company called Sinoval stole proprietary technology from a company called American Superconductor. They also stopped payment on goods received and stiffed the contract. The Chinese government did exactly zero to stop this and they gave no compensation. The dumb chump that sold the proprietary information was located in Europe so he went to jail. There was no consequence to Sinoval or China. This is just one example.

Oh, so the same level of get-away-with-whatever that occurs in the US as long as you have some Big Fish friends. Remind me what happened in 2008 and how many people went to prison for that?

I’m declaring that this forum currently exists in The Twilight Zone. People have lost their minds.

 

[Chenkers]

Did they do testing on them, did they measure the wall thickness?

Yes they did. If you watch the video, it's timestamped at the 1:07:29 mark. The wall thickness is measured on a micrometer and the determine it's 0.025 inch or 635 microns thick. Jordon states that a typical battery wall is 200 microns thick. From the video it's clear to see that the 4680 cell is very solidly built.

 

[ZachF]

I'm of the opinion that the one good thing that has come from Russia invading Ukraine is it has caused China to think twice about taking Taiwan. I hope I'm not embracing that narrative to help me sleep at night.

I should note, I think the chance of China attacking Taiwan is low, and lower now with how Ukraine has played out.

I also think China taking GIga Shanghai is low probability… but not zero. But the probably is high enough that I think relying too much on China is a net negative when adjusted for risk. Chinese factories should serve the Chinese market and nothing more.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Rivian (nearly) quadrupled production in the last quarter.

Rivian Announces 2Q Production Numbers in Line With Expectations By Investing.com

Rivian Announces 2Q Production Numbers in Line With Expectations

www.investing.com

They didn't quadruple production, it was deliveries and they had a stockpile of about 1,200 leftover from Q1 production according to the numbers below.

Rivian has been facing the old Tesla FUD of pure BS numbers. The 700 number was floated as fact when they actually did over 4k and there is a glimmer that 25k is possible for this year given their ramp. Stock is still overvalued until their opex calms down, but there is a good reason they are jumping today.

I don't think they are facing FUD when the headline is 'Quadrupled OMG!' when that was deliveries but it sounded like a bigger number so it made the headlines.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) said Wednesday it manufactured 4,401 vehicles at its facility in Normal, Illinois, in Q2 while delivering 4,467 vehicles during the same period.
The Q2 production figure is up from 2,553 vehicles in Q1, and deliveries rose from 1,227 units in the previous quarter.
Rivian said the Q2 numbers are in line with its own expectations and the company is on track to meet its annual production guidance of 25,000 vehicles.

Assuming the article's numbers are correct:

• Production: 2,553 in Q1 to 4,401 Q2 = 72% increase
• Deliveries: 1,227 in Q1 to 4,467 Q2 = 264% increase

Numbers are "fun", you can use them for good or evil