Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

No argument that no paint saves $. And there's been a couple comments about they'd "offer" wraps to some degree.



But have we seen any evidence Tesla has (or is even working on) a fully automated, cheap, high quality, method of wrapping vehicles?

Because that'd be a massive industry disruption- and an extremely complex engineering solve given even manual applications are often difficult to get right.

Not really so difficult. In some markets wraps are even included with new car purchase (Volvo in some countries, for example has no cost option, though not 100% vehicle cover). Further several major suppliers already provide vehicle-specific kits for their suppliers that vastly simplify application. If done in line at factory the complexity would vastly reduce.

 

[Matias]

What am I missing?

You need to prove everything.

 

[gtrplyr1]

The problem is that each F-150 Lightning Ford sells replaces a high margin ICE F-150 (more or less). That business model will NOT keep Ford solvent.

It will be the same scenario for most, if not all, traditional automakers ….. it’s going to be a very rough transition and many will not survive.

 

[jerry33]

Not really so difficult. In some markets wraps are even included with new car purchase (Volvo in some countries, for example has no cost option, though not 100% vehicle cover). Further several major suppliers already provide vehicle-specific kits for their suppliers that vastly simplify application. If done in line at factory the complexity would vastly reduce.

I doubt Tesla will try it anytime soon because they tried it once and it was not successful.

 

[insaneoctane]

...
But have we seen any evidence Tesla has (or is even working on) a fully automated, cheap, high quality, method of wrapping vehicles?

Because that'd be a massive industry disruption- and an extremely complex engineering solve given even manual applications are often difficult to get right.

Maybe teach Optimus to wrap the CTs?

 

[unk45]

I'm pretty sure Usain was specifically referencing the Model Y, not Cybertruck. Nothing is impossible, I suppose. But I would be shocked if Tesla ever produces a Model Y or Cybertruck at $20k or less per unit.

Remember that production cost excludes every cost that happens after a vehicle leaves the production line. I would be shocked if Model Y Austin 4680 with dual mega castings were to be very much higher than that right now. Typical post production delivery, documentation and preparation is usually ~15% of costs, (excluding dealer markups for the non-Tesla ones). Tesla is obviously learning how to reduce those costs with some fairly exotic steps, such as two story charging. Further between gigacastings, structural battery pack and new paint shop there are hundreds of robots and humans no longer needed in production. All those reduce materials, labor, preparation, etc.

We all know we cannot quantify these very well right now and we also know each new factory is a major advance on the last one. It's obvious that more factory space efficiency is happening.

When we consider all that for every model we see production costs reducing, warranty costs reducing, transportation costs and needs reducing as factories are becoming more efficiently located, customer delivery costs are plummeting with more self-delivery. These lists go on and on.

As all of this happens most of us are not understanding how huge the efficiencies are becoming. That is natural...they've been happening steadily for some years, and we usually miss them.

So, rather than date specific details, how about examining Tesla gross margins over the last four years? Once one does that the virtuous trend becomes clear. No car company other than RACE (i.e. Ferrari) has consistently higher margins than does Tesla. Some like Porsche have stellar margins in some years, but those examples are technically subsidiaries of larger companies that can easily alter transfer pricing.

 

[Knightshade]

Not really so difficult. In some markets wraps are even included with new car purchase (Volvo in some countries, for example has no cost option, though not 100% vehicle cover). Further several major suppliers already provide vehicle-specific kits for their suppliers that vastly simplify application. If done in line at factory the complexity would vastly reduce.

In 0 of those cases is the application of the wrap automated though.

Which was your claim I was asking for evidence of.

 

[unk45]

I doubt Tesla will try it anytime soon because they tried it once and it was not successful.

And we know that Tesla gives up every time they don't get it right the first time?

 

[JRP3]

One benefit of the Cybertruck is the removal of the paint process. Adding on a time consuming wrap seems like a step in the wrong direction.

 

[JRP3]

The BLS tracks these rates based on data that's available if someone is actively trying to find work (or participate in the labor force). After a certain cut-off of time period (I think its 6 months), there's no way to track those individuals. So, as an example, those that decide to live off of something like investments (or dividends, as an example) past the cut-off time period are not accounted for in the unemployment rate nor participation rate.

For some reason I mistakenly thought participation rate included everyone. Thank you for the correction.

 

[Discoducky]

The problem is that each F-150 Lightning Ford sells replaces a high margin ICE F-150 (more or less). That business model will NOT keep Ford solvent.

Yep and much sooner (most likely) the bottom will drop out of the used car market and F's only other money generating arm (F finance) will go negative. 2023 will be an exciting year for so many reasons...

Aggressive Tesla Price Cuts Pummel the Used EV Market - iSeeCars.com

The average used car price is down 3.6 percent, but used EV prices have fallen 31.8 percent since last year. Used Tesla prices have fallen 28.9 percent,...

www.iseecars.com

 

[Discoducky]

In 0 of those cases is the application of the wrap automated though.

Which was your claim I was asking for evidence of.

Yep, I was going to reply that Tesla China service centers were wrapping in 2020, but then I remembered that Knightshade is the absolute king of exact wording. I had missed the word "automated".

If you have ever tried to wrap a car or install window tint, you may soon realize this could be one of the most difficult things to automate.

 

[Daniel in SD]

For some reason I mistakenly thought participation rate included everyone. Thank you for the correction.

The denominator includes everyone everyone over 16 who isn't in the armed forces or an institution. The numerator includes people who are employed and people who are looking for work.
So the number of people working is about at pre-pandemic levels but the unemployment rate is lower because the participation rate has gone down a little.

Civilian noninstitutional population​

The civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older is the base population group, or universe, used for Current Population Survey (CPS) statistics published by BLS. (See also geographic scope and reference of the CPS.)

The civilian noninstitutional population excludes the following:

• active duty members of the U.S. Armed Forces
• people confined to, or living in, institutions or facilities such as
  • prisons, jails, and other correctional institutions and detention centers
  • residential care facilities such as skilled nursing homes

Included in the civilian noninstitutional population are citizens of foreign countries who reside in the United States but do not live on the premises of an embassy.

Civilian labor force, or labor force​

The labor force includes all people age 16 and older who are classified as either employed and unemployed, as defined below.
Conceptually, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively looking for work.

Labor force participation rate, or participation rate​

The labor force participation rate represents the number of people in the labor force as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population. In other words, the participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work.

The labor force participation rate is calculated as: (Labor Force ÷ Civilian Noninstitutional Population) x 100.

 

[ZeApelido]

Remember that production cost excludes every cost that happens after a vehicle leaves the production line. I would be shocked if Model Y Austin 4680 with dual mega castings were to be very much higher than that right now. Typical post production delivery, documentation and preparation is usually ~15% of costs, (excluding dealer markups for the non-Tesla ones). Tesla is obviously learning how to reduce those costs with some fairly exotic steps, such as two story charging. Further between gigacastings, structural battery pack and new paint shop there are hundreds of robots and humans no longer needed in production. All those reduce materials, labor, preparation, etc.

We all know we cannot quantify these very well right now and we also know each new factory is a major advance on the last one. It's obvious that more factory space efficiency is happening.

When we consider all that for every model we see production costs reducing, warranty costs reducing, transportation costs and needs reducing as factories are becoming more efficiently located, customer delivery costs are plummeting with more self-delivery. These lists go on and on.

As all of this happens most of us are not understanding how huge the efficiencies are becoming. That is natural...they've been happening steadily for some years, and we usually miss them.

So, rather than date specific details, how about examining Tesla gross margins over the last four years? Once one does that the virtuous trend becomes clear. No car company other than RACE (i.e. Ferrari) has consistently higher margins than does Tesla. Some like Porsche have stellar margins in some years, but those examples are technically subsidiaries of larger companies that can easily alter transfer pricing.

This “new” member is very informed.

Are you by chance reincarnated from the beaches of Rio de Janeiro?

 

[Tim S]

This “new” member is very informed.

Are you by chance reincarnated from the beaches of Rio de Janeiro?

There are no typos in @unk45 's posts, so either it's not the same person or they got a new, better keyboard.

 

[unk45]

In 0 of those cases is the application of the wrap automated though.

Which was your claim I was asking for evidence of.

There are a number of threads here and elsewhere about the Geico-Taikisha Pardis projects, the collaboration with Dassault Systems

Geicotaikisha.com no longer exists - GeicoTaikisha

geicotaikisha.com

Apriso

Transform Global Production Operations

www.3ds.com

Research into what already exists within the Tesla Grüneheide and Austin factories leads to Geico-Taikisha and the realization that it is impossible to retrofit this approach but can be quite conveniently deployed in a new factory operating system. Rumor suggests it is being incorporated in the next Shanghai expansion.

What has this to do with protective coatings? Just think a little, these processes can apply almost anything 'coatable'.

Normally all this would be in a more technical thread. Now, however, we all must begin to learn that with Tesla we can and do solve problems thought to be insoluble. First Principles.
Protective films are plastic. They can be both formed and applied in a single process using current Tesla technology. If they want to do it, they can.

Whenever we think of Tesla we need to realize that almost anything they imagine can be made possible.
That cuts production costs. That allows raising prices. That raises Gross Margins.

 

[unk45]

There are no typos in @unk45 's posts, so either it's not the same person or they got a new, better keyboard.

Excellent point!

 

[unk45]

This “new” member is very informed.

Are you by chance reincarnated from the beaches of Rio de Janeiro?

Do reincarnations happen there? Maybe, I'm reliably informed that there are many beaches there.
The only reincarnation I've ever seen was an electric XK E.

 

[unk45]

Because that'd be a massive industry disruption- and an extremely complex engineering solve given even manual applications are often difficult to get right.

Nah, just apply the stuff as liquid.

 

[-=buzz=-]

One benefit of the Cybertruck is the removal of the paint process. Adding on a time consuming wrap seems like a step in the wrong direction.

Yep, I was going to reply that Tesla China service centers were wrapping in 2020, but then I remembered that Knightshade is the absolute king of exact wording. I had missed the word "automated".

If you have ever tried to wrap a car or install window tint, you may soon realize this could be one of the most difficult things to automate.

Why should it be for free or automated?

Do it for the same price as aftermarket, but on the production line.
With the Cybertrucks simpler geometry, everyone of the fewer parts can be precisely pre-cut.
You pull the BiW of the line and apply the wrap there. Likewise for other subassemblies.
Compared to aftermarket you save the disassembly/reassembly-cost, but add exact matching of parts and VIN and possibly some protection measures during assembly.
Assuming it's popular, even done manually, by the hundreds it could scale really well with a small team .