Based on what I learned from the shareholder deck and the earnings call I revised down my veh production numbers for 2023, but increased revenue per vehicle produced to come to a backward looking valuation based on price to sales on trailing twelve month revenue
Vehicle Production
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | annual | |
| 2021 | 180 | 206 | 238 | 305 | 929 | |
| 2022 | 305 | 258 | 375 | 487.5 | 1425.5 | 53% |
| 2023 | 500 | 550 | 605 | 665.5 | 2320.5 | 63% |
If we can hit the rough numbers for q3 and q4 of 2022 we can hit close to the 1.4M annual production target for a 53% production increase from 2021.
For 2023 I started with the 2 million vehicle runrate Tesla hopes to achieve by the end of 2022 and increased the quarterly numbers by 10% to reach a target of 2.3 million vehicles produced for a 63% increase over 2022 production
| 2022 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| trailing production | 1054 | 1106 | 1243 | 1425.5 |
| trailing revenue | 62,190,000 | 67,000,000 | 78,800,000 | 95,100,000 |
| | | | |
| 2023 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| trailing production | 1620.5 | 1912.5 | 2142.5 | 2320.5 |
| trailing revenue | 111,400,000 | 133,000,000 | 149,900,000 | 162,500,000 |
For revenue estimates see the below table.
| | Rev per veh produced | | |
| 2021 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| rev | 10.3 | 12 | 13.7 | 17.7 |
| veh prod | 305 | 206 | 238 | 306 |
| $ 33,770 | $ 58,252 | $ 57,563 | $ 57,843 |
| | | | |
| 2022 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| rev | 18.7 | 16.9 | 25.5 | 34 |
| veh prod | 305 | 258 | 375 | 487.5 |
| $ 61,311 | $ 65,504 | $ 68,000 | $ 69,744 |
| | | | |
| 2023 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| rev | 35 | 38.5 | 42.4 | 46.6 |
| veh prod | 500 | 550 | 605 | 665.5 |
| $ 70,000 | $ 70,000 | $ 70,083 | $ 70,023 |
For q2 we saw revenue per vehicle produced increase 6% from q1. I believe we will continue to see this growth, but I only incrementally increased revenue per vehicle produced for q3 and q4 of 2022 and capped it at about $70k per vehicle produced in 2023
2022 price to sales valuation
| price/sales | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 10.3 | $620 | $668 | $785 | $948 |
| 11.5 | $692 | $746 | $877 | $1,058 |
| 15 | $903 | $972 | $1,144 | $1,380 |
| 20 | $1,203 | $1,297 | $1,525 | $1,840 |
As noted before we hit a q1 low price to sales valuation of 10.3. The high in q1 was just over 19. For q2 we currently sit at about an 11.5 price to sales ratio with a corresponding share price of $746.
I see us ending 2022 in a share price range of $1,058-$1,840 (ignoring the split).
2023 price to sales valuation
| price/sales | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 10.3 | $1,110 | $1,325 | $1,494 | $1,619 |
| 15 | $1,617 | $1,930 | $2,176 | $2,358 |
| 20 | $2,156 | $2,574 | $2,901 | $3,145 |
These are the trading ranges I can see for each quarter in 2023.
T≡SLA Boomer Mama 
on Twitter: "Had the time to run numbers and ratios, and given my conviction that both S&P and Moody's are striving to go unnoticed, I am predicting that we have an upgrade of Tesla's credit rating to investment grade in the next 3-4 weeks, latest by mid August. Comment below, please." / Twitter
