Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

The numbers that jumped out for me was the 40,000 output weeks, but also in the 10,000 weekly out of Berlin and Austin each, sometime next year (aka Q4?). Obvious in the long term but perhaps can help align estimates….
So perhaps 250,000 quarterly run rate Berlin+Austin combined EoY 2023? 125,000 quarterly was when Shanghai really hit its stride

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

BTW, I thought I heard Zach say they made around $100 million on the Bitcoin sale.

Based on Elons tweet from May 17 about not having sold any bitcoin that probably relates to the price after previous impairments, not price they bought at. Don't think the price since has been higher than what they originally bought for.

 

[larmor]

The numbers that jumped out for me was the 40,000 output weeks, but also in the 10,000 weekly out of Berlin and Austin each, sometime next year (aka Q4?). Obvious in the long term but perhaps can help align estimates….
So perhaps 250,000 quarterly run rate Berlin+Austin combined EoY 2023?

40k * 50 weeks so 2023 should be 2 million units (widgets/cars)!!???

 

[Cosmacelf]

40k * 50 weeks so 2023 should be 2 million units (widgets/cars)!!???

At an absolute minimum. Their run rate at the end of 2022 will be at 2M/year, but they'll be bringing on new lines in 2023 (Cybertruck for example), and speeding up existing lines. I mean, assuming they hit 1.5M cars in 2022 (possible, assuming nothing else goes wrong), 50% growth from there will be 2.25M vehicles in 2023. And I expect they'll beat that.

 

[Krugerrand]

Frankly, I was impressed Elon didn't lose it when that one analyst kept asking about demand. *I* was losing it. GIVE IT UP for God's sake.

I’ve got to buy 83 more shares because of those two demand idiots.

 

[Knightshade]

A breakthrough just allows you to save space from a battery storage perspective and yield more miles from an auto perspective. The hold up is battery storage in which no one really cares about saving space. So you scale production to infinite to compensate for a lack of breakthrough.

FWIW the biggest thing only "scaling production" wont solve is aircraft-- density isn't QUITE where it needs to be, especially for anything but small/local/commuter range stuff- something Elon himself has remarked on.

But I expect his "no breakthroughs needed" simply meant that "normal" improvements over the coming years would be sufficient to get there rather than magically having exotic material or solid state stuff working tomorrow.


That does still leave rockets though....

 

[Budding]

Anyone else hoping the stock tanks (on FUD) the rest of this week and next to buy the "sale"?

Have you been under a rock for the last 6 months?

 

[FlamingPIG]

Forward Cap's awesome graphs and thoughts on Q2.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549889933090979841

 

[Stretch2727]

Anyone notice the reduction in SG & A and R & D this quarter. Lower than Q1 even when you include the severance costs.

229M lower without the severance costs. This is 12% reduction before they made the 10% headcount reduction? Does not make sense to me. Is it possible some of Shanghai employees were not paid due to government benefits during shutdown. I just doubt China management would have this large of a $$ impact even if this were the case.

Q1 Q2

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

At an absolute minimum. Their run rate at the end of 2022 will be at 2M/year, but they'll be bringing on new lines in 2023 (Cybertruck for example), and speeding up existing lines. I mean, assuming they hit 1.5M cars in 2022 (possible, assuming nothing else goes wrong), 50% growth from there will be 2.25M vehicles in 2023. And I expect they'll beat that.

No need to wait for 2023. Shanghai is upgrading right now and will have significantly higher output in a couple of weeks. So we can add that to the 40k/week (2 million/year) as well. Elon did not include this Shanghai upgrade in his math to get to 40k.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Dave has done a great concise review on YouTube. Here’s his numbers gained by plugging in the output required to hit the newly guided 50% growth. I added the lower highlight. Dave was going so fast he just waved over the eps numbers.

 

[WattsHappening]

Anyone notice the reduction in SG & A and R & D this quarter. Lower than Q1 even when you include the severance costs.

229M lower without the severance costs. This is 12% reduction before they made the 10% headcount reduction? Does not make sense to me. Is it possible some of Shanghai employees were not paid due to government benefits during shutdown. I just doubt China management would have this large of a $$ impact even if this were the case.

Q1 Q2
View attachment 830804

Q1 included Austin and Berlin costs as operating expenses. Much of that cost in Q2 is in COGS. One reason why gross margin came in lighter than some forecasted.

Edit: Ninja'ed by MikeC! Will delete per mods' instructions. On second thought, I'll leave up for the added comment about gross margin.

 

[ammulder]

iirc then Shanghai was listed with >450k in the Q1-deck, but with >750k in the current deck .. or am i remembering wrongly?

Right, but the upgrades under way now (well, model Y line finished, model 3 upgrade underway?) are supposed to give Shanghai a capacity of 1.1M/yr... so while bigger than before 750k is still the "old number".

 

[Webeevdrivers]

If this is the BAD quarter then WATCH OUT.

Q3 will be great.

Q4 will be officially earth shattering to this fossilized industry that is in the process of being torn to shreds.

Don't even know what happens next year.

Let's hope production hiccups and shutdowns are in the past.

Press the accelerator all the way down, please.

You mean the gas pedal.

 

[mongo]

Anyone notice the reduction in SG & A and R & D this quarter. Lower than Q1 even when you include the severance costs.

229M lower without the severance costs. This is 12% reduction before they made the 10% headcount reduction? Does not make sense to me. Is it possible some of Shanghai employees were not paid due to government benefits during shutdown. I just doubt China management would have this large of a $$ impact even if this were the case.

Q1 Q2
View attachment 830804

Preproduction line commissioning was being (at least partly) charged to R&D.

 

[GOVA]

The question and answers at ~46 minutes, tell the story that Munro might not open the battery for a while.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

The question and answers at ~46 minutes, tell the story that Munro might not open the battery for a while.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The question and answers at ~46 minutes, tell the story that Munro might not open the battery for a while.

You mean the cryptic comment that "specific to the dry process, we made great progress in Q2"? I took that to mean they figured out how to get a dry cathode (the six month old 4680 that The Limiting Factor got seemed to only have a dry anode). But I'm not sure what this has to do with Munro's teardown?

 

[JustMe]

The question and answers at ~46 minutes, tell the story that Munro might not open the battery for a while.

There is no chance that Tesla is interfering with or influencing Munro’s disassembly process or timeline.

 

[MC3OZ]

The question and answers at ~46 minutes, tell the story that Munro might not open the battery for a while.

It occurred to me that it may have been easier to open the pack if Munro had the solvent on day 1, that all depends on what the solvent does to the foam and how easy/safe it is to introduce some solvent to the pack.