Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Also likely to be short lived. Employment numbers are simply to good. To many businesses really cant cut workers or they will make customers very unhappy. At least around me signs of labor shortage still everywhere.

So not true. In the tech space we have seen the first wave of layoffs. I've been hiring people on first offers, and they are taking what is offered (which is a good salary, but not like bidding wars of the last 12-18 months).

 

[SOULPEDL]

What's in it for Manchin, and why now? I'm not buying this crap again, sorry. Filibuster proof in only 10 days before Aug recess, all 50 votes needed but where's Sinema in Az? Come on, a trading opportunity IMHO.

But just in case... By chance would the used EV credit apply to something purchased say... tomorrow? (I'm doubting it). What normally happens timewise on these credit bills?

 

[thx1139]

So not true. In the tech space we have seen the first wave of layoffs. I've been hiring people on first offers, and they are taking what is offered (which is a good salary, but not like bidding wars of the last 12-18 months).

I have had 19 recruiters contact me this week about new opportunities. I dont think tech people having any issues. I can drive around town and find help wanted signs on just about every building with starting wages above minimum wage ($12 in Illinois) everywhere. This is in a conservative suburb that fought the Illinois min wage over again. Number one complaint I see from people is that now service sucks in restaurants and other businesses that require service because they are all short staffed.

 

[thx1139]

If it's not from a dealer and doesn't have the 1 time stipulation then I can see people reselling their car back and forth infinite times to get infinite rebates.

Already a 1 time stipulation on the purchaser. So that wouldnt work.

 

[Accident]

But just in case... By chance would the used EV credit apply to something purchased say... tomorrow? (I'm doubting it). What normally happens timewise on these credit bills?

The credit for used cars takes effect in 2023. There's also a $25,000 price limit, so it's not really going to benefit Tesla.

 

[thx1139]

The credit for used cars takes effect in 2023. There's also a $25,000 price limit, so it's not really going to benefit Tesla.

This is about people. Not to mention people need to stop thinking in the next year or two. 5 years from now lots and lots of Tesla's will be available that qualify. Although should the limits be indexed to inflation?

 

[bkp_duke]

I have had 19 recruiters contact me this week about new opportunities. I dont think tech people having any issues. I can drive around town and find help wanted signs on just about every building with starting wages above minimum wage ($12 in Illinois) everywhere. This is in a conservative suburb that fought the Illinois min wage over again. Number one complaint I see from people is that now service sucks in restaurants and other businesses that require service because they are all short staffed.

Let me spell this out, since you aren't getting it.

First phase of labor problems is that there are layoffs and the good recruits go out and get the available jobs and do OK. We are there right now (have you missed all the announced layoffs by various tech companies TSLA and slowing of hiring - AAPL? There dozens more examples).

We could stop here, but there are certainly NOT bidding wars going on for labor prospects like there were just a few months ago. Not in the skilled space.

Second phase of labor problems would be continued layoffs, enough to show up in the unemployment numbers (as poorly as those are calculated, due to people being taken out of the calculation for various reasons). We are NOT there, yet. But if energy prices continue to stay high, you can bet we will get here. The positive is that when this happens, you see productivity increase as companies innovate to replace human labor with efficiency improvements.


The entry-level job supply problem is now one of "stigmata" - no one wants those jobs because everyone has been told they are worth more. Apparently everyone thinks they should be paid Dr. and Attorney salaries, but without putting in the work to obtain those skills. I'm not talking about the UNSKILLED job market, I'm talking about the SKILLED job market. The Skilled job market is not nearly as strong as it was just 6 months ago. I have made 6 hires in the past 6 weeks for programmers, sys admins, and graphics artists. EVERY last one of them took my first offer, without hesitation. And all of those offers were lower than what I was willing to pay 6 months ago. Additionally, I had 30 applications for each position, on average, almost all of them WELL qualified.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla mailed me a check for $33.75 with no explanation. Does anyone here have an idea?

My Model 3 was delivered on March 2. I also bought a NEMA Adapter from Tesla. When I try to call Tesla, hold times are ridiculous.

 

[wtlloyd]

This. We have a month-long backlog on EVs now, this taxpayer handout is unlikely to result in the sale of one new EV. And for the reason you mentioned, is likely to be a negative impact in the short term. Why does gov always try to mess with the private sector and promote winners and losers? The last big spending bill from last October seems to have put a damper on (non-Tesla) charging companies as businesses waited to see what the impact would be.

Wrong. I impulse bought a Y last night, a purchase I have repeatedly postponed over the last two years. News of the possible incentives and the likelihood of price increases and further lengthening of the order queue pushed me off the fence.
And that's a datapoint.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

What I think would be groundbreaking and a real show stopper would be to throw a ball at Optimus and have it catch the ball. I'm talking tossed underhand from a person. Showing the adaptation to a real time problem and using sensors to adjust to the environment is a very simple thought but would show a grand ability overall. I doubt this to be possible but you never know.

Don't give Franz any ideas!

 

[Captkerosene]

AI day ... are we gonna see anything like this ... guess not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552305083475341313

There is good reason to think that we may see something much, much better.

My guess is that Dojo is up and running. The simulator is up and running. HW4 is up and running. Training the Bot to walk and other similar functions will take weeks not years. The hardware for Bot is mostly off the shelf. Like the Tin Man, all it needs is a brain.

Go back and listen to AID1 and I think you will hear that they have been working towards this for longer than you think.

 

[gene]

Tesla mailed me a check for $33.75 with no explanation. Does anyone here have an idea?

My Model 3 was delivered on March 2. I also bought a NEMA Adapter from Tesla. When I try to call Tesla, hold times are ridiculous.

Do you have Tesla solar or Solar City on your roof? It may be a rebate check if your PV system did not produce to expectations over the last year.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla mailed me a check for $33.75 with no explanation. Does anyone here have an idea?

Most likely a refund because the registration charges were slightly less than they collected from you.

See this thread: Surprise Check from Tesla

 

[Usain]

Tesla mailed me a check for $33.75 with no explanation. Does anyone here have an idea?

My Model 3 was delivered on March 2. I also bought a NEMA Adapter from Tesla. When I try to call Tesla, hold times are ridiculous.

I recently got a check like that for my MY purchased in April of 2021. I seem to remember something on the check referred to taxes or registration fees. Maybe it was calculated wrong so they sent out refunds?

 

[thx1139]

Let me spell this out, since you aren't getting it.

First phase of labor problems is that there are layoffs and the good recruits go out and get the available jobs and do OK. We are there right now (have you missed all the announced layoffs by various tech companies TSLA and slowing of hiring - AAPL? There dozens more examples).

We could stop here, but there are certainly NOT bidding wars going on for labor prospects like there were just a few months ago. Not in the skilled space.

Second phase of labor problems would be continued layoffs, enough to show up in the unemployment numbers (as poorly as those are calculated, due to people being taken out of the calculation for various reasons). We are NOT there, yet. But if energy prices continue to stay high, you can bet we will get here. The positive is that when this happens, you see productivity increase as companies innovate to replace human labor with efficiency improvements.


The entry-level job supply problem is now one of "stigmata" - no one wants those jobs because everyone has been told they are worth more. Apparently everyone thinks they should be paid Dr. and Attorney salaries, but without putting in the work to obtain those skills. I'm not talking about the UNSKILLED job market, I'm talking about the SKILLED job market. The Skilled job market is not nearly as strong as it was just 6 months ago. I have made 6 hires in the past 6 weeks for programmers, sys admins, and graphics artists. EVERY last one of them took my first offer, without hesitation. And all of those offers were lower than what I was willing to pay 6 months ago. Additionally, I had 30 applications for each position, on average, almost all of them WELL qualified.

I am 55 and have been in the tech industry for 33 years, including creating, owning and selling 2 tech companies. I know how this works. Go explain to someone else.

 

[bkp_duke]

I am 55 and have been in the tech industry for 33 years, including creating, owning and selling 2 tech companies. I know how this works. Go explain to someone else.

I'm 9 years younger than you, and have bought and sold 7X as many companies. What's your point?

I'm ACTIVE in this space RIGHT NOW and can tell you that good, SKILLED, labor is as cheap as it has been in at least 5 years.

I don't care about unskilled labor. I'm honestly hoping that things like burger flippers and the like are eventually replaced with automation. People should be paid to think, not just fill a slot in a line.


EDIT - and I am in both the domestic and international space. I think what is driving the drop in wages for US-based employees in the Skilled labor set (those that can work from home), is that they now must compete on an international marketplace much more than previously. The Work-From-Home push has had both positive and negative consequences for this group.

I was just on the East Coast last week and was talking with some colleagues in the IT space. They were VERY blunt about the people refusing to come back into offices - they said if that is the direction employees are going to go, then they will fill spaces more with international workers, at lower price points (and usually less drama).

 

[henchman24]

Macro creeping up to the first major resistance point.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm 9 years younger than you, and have bought and sold 7X as many companies. What's your point?

I'm ACTIVE in this space RIGHT NOW and can tell you that good, SKILLED, labor is as cheap as it has been in at least 5 years.

I don't care about unskilled labor. I'm honestly hoping that things like burger flippers and the like are eventually replaced with automation. People should be paid to think, not just fill a slot in a line.


EDIT - and I am in both the domestic and international space. I think what is driving the drop in wages for US-based employees in the Skilled labor set (those that can work from home), is that they now must compete on an international marketplace much more than previously. The Work-From-Home push has had both positive and negative consequences for this group.

I was just on the East Coast last week and was talking with some colleagues in the IT space. They were VERY blunt about the people refusing to come back into offices - they said if that is the direction employees are going to go, then they will fill spaces more with international workers, at lower price points (and usually less drama).

I thought $TSLA SP slowly appreciating would stop our bickering....now i know this is an even more bullish sign....Bickering when SP is on the upward trend!

 

[bkp_duke]

I thought $TSLA SP slowly appreciating would stop our bickering....now i know this is an even more bullish sign....Bickering when SP is on the upward trend!

Perhaps I'm just seeing a "segment" of the labor market. I'm not trying to say that @thx1139 is universally wrong, but instead point out that the labor market is not nearly at the same level of strength it was just months ago. It's it 10% bonkers unemployment? Of course not. Is there a shift going on? I believe there is strong data to support that, at least among skilled workers.

 

[henchman24]

My lone data point on the labor market... I 'retired' in January. By that I simply mean I may take on some part time projects I like or help some places in my area of expertise (corporate accounting, with emphasis on consulting companies). I've been reached out to more in the last 4-6 weeks about jobs and trying to lure me back into the industry than I had Jan-May... and the pay is much higher than the job I left (I could pretty much ask ~40k more than I was getting previously and have them accept). Might just be a lack of talent or people fleeing, but the job market looks very tight for employers in that very small, fragmented segment.