Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

wasn't hard to tell there were real demand issues this quarter yet this thread/forum was hilariously wrong with uber bull sentiment

From the report:

Inventory of Model 3 vehicles in North America remains exceptionally low, reaching about two weeks of supply at the end of Q1, compared to the industry average of 2-3 months.

Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1.

 

[bdy0627]

This will decrease auto revenue by nearly $1B compared with Q4.

 

[gtrplyr1]

The market in the U.S. is demanding a SUV/Crossover .... many automakers have simply stopped making sedans. Given that fact, I expect to see a drastic improvement when the Model Y is released. True the X is a SUV but it is very expensive ..... disappointed in the numbers and am looking forward to hearing about the quarter from management. Tomorrow will be pretty bad but I'm very long ..... so while it will suck I will be holding on for the future.

Cheers to the longs .... what time does the bar open?

 

[ZachF]

This will decrease auto revenue by nearly $1B compared with Q4.

Probably closer to $2b honestly...

 

[Unpilot]

Looks up....nope the sky is not falling.
It feels good to be a LONG term stock holder.

 

[azaz]

From the report:

meh, go talk to your local Tesla store about how many cars were sitting on the lot in January/February. my MR model 3 produced in early January was still available for me to take delivery in early March. why do you think there was a drop in production lol

 

[Beltsbear]

So why is production so low? They have more orders then cars according to the report, but they are not making the cars.

 

[sundaymorning]

This explains why Tesla pulled forward the short range and standard plus earlier than expected as most people are opting for these.

 

[Antares Nebula]

"Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1. We reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019. "

Sounds like they were production constrained as far as the US market goes due to shifting production for international. Question is by how much?

 

[azaz]

"Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1. We reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019. "

Sounds like they were production constrained as far as the US market goes due to shifting production for international. Question is by how much?

I think this is true by the end of the quarter but it certainly wasn't true for January or February.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Tesla's First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

• New-vehicle deliveries in the first quarter fell 31% from the previous three months

• Tesla had slashed the Model 3's starting price three times during the quarter, finally reaching its long-promised base of $35,000, suggesting that demand for more-expensive versions had plateaued.

• Tesla attributed the slowdown to challenges associated with taking the Model 3 overseas for the first time

• The company cautioned that first-quarter net income would be "negatively impacted" while saying it planned to end the quarter with "sufficient cash on hand."

• Tesla said it delivered 50,900 Model 3 cars in the first quarter, down 20% from 63,359 the preceding three months

• Sales of the more-expensive Model S car and Model X sport- utility vehicle collectively fell to 12,100 from 27,602 during the fourth quarter

Does NOT look good.

Telsa's announcement came minutes after the conclusion of after-hours stock trading.
Coincidence ?

My delivery number was 52k for the M3. So, my estimate was inline with 50.9k

I expect tsla to retrace all of its gains the last 5 trading days.
Looking at $270 SP tomorrow.

 

[ZachF]

So why is production so low? They have more orders then cars according to the report, but they are not making the cars.

Honestly, because you're dealing with 3 major headwinds this quarter:
-transit losses from shift to overseas shipments
-demand pull from tax credit end
-Q1 is historically weakest quarter anyways.

...It's not as bad as it looks... But it looks bad, which means we are going to have to deal with another 3-4 months at least of the FUD/short machine. ugh.

 

[larmor]

That's it i'm done, i have to go to the gas station to fill up my laptop, phone, watch, and tablet(s). So glad entire US domestic and foreign policy funded by my taxes revolves around my ability to get gas to fill up my devices.

 

[Brian121]

As a long term holder. I feel the same advantage as mentioned by some of the super longs here. Sure the demand will be affected with the halve of the tax incentive, and quarter to quarter fluctuation is naturally part of the business.

But as a long term holder, this is still a aspiring company on the rising. And a lot of good things on the horizon. China giga, FSD improvement, HW3, etc.

Short term watch daily trade and place bet accordingly. A long term holder, I am margin free, all stock, and truly use the money I could afford to lose. Even though that perspective is scary, but I don't think it will happen.

 

[Zaxxon]

Well, that explains why they waited until trading was closed for the day. Yegads.

On the bright side, maybe I can get me a deal on a Model X this quarter...

 

[AlexS]

congrats to shorts they are grilling us tomorrow.

Can someone tell Elon to give clear guidance on CC for Q2

 

[Antares Nebula]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This Bloomberg article claims m3 consensus was 51,750. I think Visible Alpha was 55k. Versus the former (maybe factset consensus?), the miss is not that bad for M3. Of course, S,X miss was pretty bad.

 

[eloder]

This'll probably be a bad 3-6 months. I'm glad I hedged a little bit today.

 

[Sancho]

There are only two critical factors to the value of TSLA: demand and margin. The production numbers don’t tell us much about demand for M3 (S&X demand is likely soft, but we don’t know if that is unique to the headwinds of Q1). Beyond the numbers, the report says demand for M3 is solid, and unless you don’t believe the guidance they are reaffirming, I don’t see a demand problem.

That leaves ASP and margin as the big unknowns. We need to wait for the earnings report to get more clues on that.

 

[Causalien]

FWIW, shorts benefit from higher rates because short sale proceeds earn interest. How this interest, called the short rebate, get split between short seller, share lender and broker is subject to negotiation (retail investors fare poorly in this negotiation, surprise....).

So the pause in interest is actually causing a short squeeze.