Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

meh, go talk to your local Tesla store about how many cars were sitting on the lot in January/February. my MR model 3 produced in early January was still available for me to take delivery in early March. why do you think there was a drop in production lol

Well, with 200 stores and galleries around the world and 2 weeks of production being 10,000 cars, I'd say each one has 50 cars...

Does it mean anything if I find a 2018 on a Ford lot?

 

[srius]

fwiw, my updated projection,

63k +/-3k 3s
20.5k S/X

cautiously optimistic that dropping to one offering most of the quarter for S and X each was designed not only for higher margins, but, to also squeeze out more production from those 2 shifts.

tweaked 3 projection down a little based on data today from Germany.

How do you come up with 20.5k S/X when InsideEVs put only 8,875 for US? If we scale InsideEVs deliveries numbers, the S/X would come out as 15,400 [ 27,550(4q18, S/X deliveries) * 8,875(1q19-US-InsideEvs)/15,875(4q18-US) ]. The actual number will sure differ, but it's one way to give us some ideas.
The main concern on P&D report is falling well short of the S/X numbers against analysts' 26,900/20,100 S/X productions/deliveries estimates. It's not clear if the production numbers still matter as the demands seem to be the focus.

 

[gtrplyr1]

BTW, I sure hope that a nice model S/X update is in the works. One would think that by producing the Model3 they learned quite a few ways to improve the S/X as well as make production more efficient.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

if you swing trade I'd get out for now and reload below 260, seems kind of obvious short term

 

[PhaseWhite]

Glad I didn't use my dry powder at 260... looks to me like we are headed lower.

 

[azaz]

good SEC news will stymie losses imo

 

[ZachF]

I hope they have a S/X refresh in the works

 

[sundaymorning]

Looks like S & X is off by about 4-6k for the quarter, which isn’t bad considering the tax credit phase out and Model 3 performance eating away some sales.

Since it’s widely known that most people are opting for the standard plus the question isn’t so much demand (as there are plenty), but rather what our profit margins will be for that model? I think as 1-2 more quarters progress profits for the standard plus will be 10-15% depending on whether people opt to buy autopilot, colors, rims, interior trim, etc.

 

[Cherry Wine]

How do you come up with 20.5k S/X when InsideEVs put only 8,875 for US? If we scale InsideEVs deliveries numbers, the S/X would come out as 15,400 [ 27,550(4q18, S/X deliveries) * 8,875(1q19-US-InsideEvs)/15,875(4q18-US) ]. The actual number will sure differ, but it's one way to give us some ideas.
The main concern on P&D report is falling well short of the S/X numbers against analysts' 26,900/20,100 S/X productions/deliveries estimates. It's not clear if the production numbers still matter as the demands seem to be the focus.

Very few on here were looking at 20k S/X, let alone 27k -- that number is ridiculous. 15-17k was a very plausible number, and honestly I'm not surprised that we're looking at 12k knowing that the most popular models were eliminated. Right now we only have half the picture, and need to wait for the Q1 CC to know more.

 

[Beltsbear]

Honestly, because you're dealing with 3 major headwinds this quarter:
-transit losses from shift to overseas shipments
-demand pull from tax credit end
-Q1 is historically weakest quarter anyways.

...It's not as bad as it looks... But it looks bad, which means we are going to have to deal with another 3-4 months at least of the FUD/short machine. ugh.

None of these items lower production unless Tesla decides to lower production.

 

[Unpilot]

As a long term holder. I feel the same advantage as mentioned by some of the super longs here. Sure the demand will be affected with the halve of the tax incentive, and quarter to quarter fluctuation is naturally part of the business.

But as a long term holder, this is still a aspiring company on the rising. And a lot of good things on the horizon. China giga, FSD improvement, HW3, etc.

Short term watch daily trade and place bet accordingly. A long term holder, I am margin free, all stock, and truly use the money I could afford to lose. Even though that perspective is scary, but I don't think it will happen.

Think about it for a minute. IF the forces aligned against Tesla succeed and Tesla fails....how many companies would pick up the sustainable banner and FORCE this needed change.
None that I can think of. We would be looking at more of the same with weird mobiles and compliance cars. All the while pumping poison in the air while we " study" what to do about climate change.
Tesla is to me a bet on the future...if it fails I'm pretty sure we all all screwed.

 

[kyzhk]

Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter.

They delivered half of entire quarters delivery in 10 days.



Well, glad that I deleverage, covered the short puts and sold the leaps call when they are green. I will be re-selling puts and loading leaps when Tesla goes to ~$250 again.

 

[Lift]

I hope they have a S/X refresh in the works

Couldn't find the tweet, but greentheonly has seen references to a project named Raven or Maven (I forget), which is apparently the partial refresh. Given his track record I would think his claim is legit, but time will tell.

 

[Doggydogworld]

BTW, I sure hope that a nice model S/X update is in the works. One would think that by producing the Model3 they learned quite a few ways to improve the S/X as well as make production more efficient.

I've been expecting a 400 mile battery pack with v3 charging and upgraded interior to make Model S the flagship again. It's technically feasible and is now desperately needed.

There's no way to spin these numbers as good, or even OK. They are bad. Really bad. I thought I was being reasonable at 70k production/60k deliveries for Model 3. Guess I partook of the free-flowing Kool-Aid here without realizing it.

 

[MXWing]

wasn't hard to tell there were real demand issues this quarter yet this thread/forum was hilariously wrong with uber bull sentiment

So did you make a big bet as you were hilariously right while everyone was wrong?

If not you can serve yourself a giant can of STFU.

Hindsight 20/20 always.

 

[kbM3]

So why is production so low? They have more orders then cars according to the report, but they are not making the cars.

I’m wondering if the low Model 3 production was caused by intro of international configurations and SR+. Wouldn’t they need to slow the lines down to implement changes?

 

[azaz]

I've been expecting a 400 mile battery pack with v3 charging and upgraded interior to make Model S the flagship again. It's technically feasible and is now desperately needed.

There's no way to spin these numbers as good, or even OK. They are bad. Really bad. I thought I was being reasonable at 70k production/60k deliveries for Model 3. Guess I partook of the free-flowing Kool-Aid here without realizing it.

don't worry FC or Karen will be back with 10 posts explaining how this is actually good and getting 5 "likes" because it reinforces people's priors.

 

[azaz]

So did you make a big bet as you were hilariously right while everyone was wrong?

If not you can serve yourself a giant can of STFU.

Hindsight 20/20 always.

no because I don't trade options and don't believe in shorting morally, and am super long term (5+ years) long.

 

[InDaClub]

They're back....

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I’m not an investor, just a wannabe Tesla owner driving a leaf and a smart EV. But I’m not sure I see the gloom here. If I read it right there are already 10600 presold cars for the next quarter. There also doesn’t seem to be a large inventory so for the most part they are selling what they are building.

The only thing that surprises me a bit is that they still haven’t gotten to 5000 cars a week. I am curious what is keeping production down, or is it deliberate to avoid building too much inventory.

Wishing them well. We hope to own a LR model 3 someday but our particular needs require it to be able to access either Chademo or CCS. Superchargers are scarce in the areas we travel.