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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If I wasn't currently extremely strapped for cash I'd probably reserve one myself. 150k - 40k EV credit = 110k for a semi that will probably have 600+ miles of range without any load and can tow whatever I want? That's less than a plaid.
Just make sure you order FSD so that you don’t have to drive that behemoth!
 
Not for me, but can understand attraction if you are a hyper bull.

There is also 2TSL which is 2 x leveraged and available in UK.

Just be aware of fees (around 2.8% for 2TSL), counterparty risks, also daily rebalancing which can eat into returns on any sideways or down cycle.
FTFY.
TSLA -10% then up +11% makes TSLA ±0. 2TSL will still be at -3% after that (iirc.. did detailed calculation some time ago in the other thread, but that is the gist of it).
Also additionally to the yearly "management-fee" the algorithm takes for running 2 minutes every day 😅
 
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Normal that short-seller pile-in right now, this is the fight for the perpetuation of the bear-market, could last some days, almost nothing to do with $TSLA at this moment, pure macro
Yup... I don't think the fight will be completely over if this level breaks up, but this is a pretty key area of the bear market where it could be on its last stand... or it could start a new downward cycle. I find the latter pretty unlikely, but at least have to acknowledge the possibility.
 
So, do we have any projections of how many orders for Semi this year? The page is open, $5000 now and $15k due in 0 days to reserve: Tesla Semi
I'm curious as well. We know Pepsi has ordered 100 and if they sell enough of their new Nitro products they can easily buy 1,000... that stuff is expensive! I know that other companies have ordered some as well, just can't remember who they were. The Semi would be a perfect fit for someone like Walmart, delivering from their distribution centers to the individual stores, with a HD charger(s) on both ends. Seems like that's what the Semi is built for, currently at least.
 
There's a strong demand point to make besides profits on Semi. It's the clarity of choice - ICE or a BEV Semi. Check it out, demand will be huge.

Tesla is claiming that Fuel Savings equals the cost of the vehicle per their chart. It's not like a Model Y that saves a bit over time.... No. It pays for itself in full when compared to an ICE which today range from 100-200k, and have ZERO fuel savings.

Imagine you're a trucking company and your fleet is aging. Is the choice really that simple? They'd need to see some charging infrastructure again use cases to compare in all fairness, but wow. The Tesla Semi is either a hot sale or way over valued. Hopefully they over deliver too ;)

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Crazy thing about fuel savings is how much it varies based on location. Here in Oregon, metered power costs $0.08/ kWh. 500 miles south in Sacramento, it's 2-3 times as much (4x during peak hours!). Even in California the savings is likely big, but in states where power is cheap the savings are likely massive. Doubly so when fuel prices spike up.
 
I have a question that i cannot figure out or understand bureaucratese
on pages 402 and 403, I cannot understand the verbiage relating to EV's placed in service from 12/31/2021 to date of passage (signature into law)
are they covered or not?

It kind'a reads like a "no" but these things can be both vague or specific depending upon the reader, since the taxpayer "may"

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I'm not a lawyer and I've misread this bill before. So take what I say with a big grain of salt.

But as I understand it, the text about "from 12/31/2021 to date of enactment" pertains to the old law. It protects people who signed a contract for an EV under the old law but took delivery after signing of the new law.

Let's say you ordered a Rivian today thinking you would get a $7500 tax credit under the old law. But you take delivery after Biden signs the new law. Without that special stipulation, the Rivian would not qualify because it is over the $80,000 cap. The part you are referring to lets a taxpayer treat the vehicle as if it was placed into service under the old law.

That's why Rivian is asking its customers to convert their reservations into a binding contract. It's so they can still get the $7500 credit.
 
O’Dowd FUD gaining traction? This is the first piece of ‘news’ listed in my Stock App right now.

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I remember when one of the "news" programs (I think Dateline) faked a test of GM pickup gas tanks and tried to make out that they were dangerous. They took off the gas cap, put on one that didn't fit, and lit the spilled fuel with a model rocket engine after crashing a car into the side. Pretty big scandal at the time-don't remember the cash outcome (lawsuit) over it.

ETA:

This was back when people were naïve enough to think they could believe "news" programs.
 
Why don't WE sue this guy! We're a class.
I just looked to see if that is viable in California where they have really strict false advertising laws.

It looks to me like a consumer would need to show actual harm based on the advertising. That would be a steep hill to climb.

But it might be a really good idea to lobby for the state attorney general to bring suit.
 
Crazy thing about fuel savings is how much it varies based on location. Here in Oregon, metered power costs $0.08/ kWh. 500 miles south in Sacramento, it's 2-3 times as much (4x during peak hours!). Even in California the savings is likely big, but in states where power is cheap the savings are likely massive. Doubly so when fuel prices spike up.
Been noticing it's all over the map so to speak. I think my utility company gets it for the lowest price in the country. I sell it to them for less than $.03/kWh, and they turn around and sell it next door for $0.35 --> 1,000% margins on a hot day when I'm producing power AND buffering their peak grid capacity for them... for free. Is there money in energy I wonder?
 
I just looked to see if that is viable in California where they have really strict false advertising laws.

It looks to me like a consumer would need to show actual harm based on the advertising. That would be a steep hill to climb.

But it might be a really good idea to lobby for the state attorney general to bring suit.
As a stock holder (not necessarily a "consumer") it seems as if it would be a lot easier to show harm. Question is does someone have to sell and lock in a loss to show harm? I assume not, given the suits over Elon's "financing" tweet.
 
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A family member reserved a 500 mile range semi last week and reported to me that the reservation number is less than 16,000. Keeping in mind that a $20,000 deposit is going to keep away all but the most serious of buyers, I wouldn't expect many to drop off the list once deliveries become available.

The reservation numbers were formatted differently than that of the cars. The format is: EO000015xxx.

Looks like 276,000 Class 8 semi tractors were sold in 2019 (pre pandemic) so if Tesla wants 10% of that market they should scale to about 30,000 unit/year of capacity. Will be interesting to see what the ramp looks like.
Probably the future demand also will be affected by the gradual disappearance of the 'gliders' that were popular for all US Class 8 builders because their recidivist truckers would buy a new chassis and mount a rebuilt pre-emissions rule engine. That came to a screeching halt in 2019-2020. Similarly even other older Class 8s are rapidly;y becoming uneconomic because of their inefficiency. Now that several makers already sell BEV's, all of them targeted for urban area delivery, switchyards and other short-haul applications. None fo the present crop are really optimized for BEV advantages either.

It seems Tesla Semi may the the only one nearing production that uses the traction control and stability enhancements that BEV can provide. Thus far none have really been equipped with an integrated business management suite either, but Tesla Semi had Jerome Guillien, who had had a major role in launching the e-Cascada with Freightliner/Mercedes Benz. His McKinsey background gave him some polish not generally in evidence in the heavy-duty world.

As systems integration and greatly enhanced vehicle safety become more evident I am convinced the market will have the same inexorable growth that cars have been doing. Thus it would be quite reasonable to assume that cost savings plus generous incentives will suddenly make demand result in, dare I say it, exponential growth.

Is all that not why Tesla suddenly announced Semi deliveries would begin this year?
 
As a stock holder (not necessarily a "consumer") it seems as if it would be a lot easier to show harm. Question is does someone have to sell and lock in a loss to show harm? I assume not, given the suits over Elon's "financing" tweet.
It's easy to sue, but hard to win. Again, I'm not a lawyer, but a shareholder suit looks like a loser to me. It's too tough to show harm, and I'm not even sure there is any.

But the state could sue based on general harm done to consumers who might otherwise buy FSD. I think that one would have a shot.

If we could prove conclusively that the driver was pressing the accelerator, I think it might compel the state to do something. Perhaps someone could replicate the test as closely as possible and show that the crash does not occur. You would just need a straightaway, a dummy, and lots of cones!
 
Electrek - yesterday:

Tesla self-driving smear campaign releases ‘test’ that fails to realize FSD never engaged

Excerpt:

The vehicle does appear to be equipped with FSD Beta, or at least FSD Beta visualization, but it clearly wasn’t activated during this video.

The explanation is likely quite simple. Tesla FSD Beta still relies on map data, and this test was performed on a closed course at Willow Springs International Raceway in Rosamond, California.


Electrek reached out to The Dawn Project to point out to them that unlike what they claim, Tesla FSD Beta was never “engaged” during the test based on their own footage in the ad.
 
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