Todd Burch
14-Year Member
INTERNAL MEMO
The definition of stupidity is being stupid over and over again and expecting to not be stupid.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sunday evening musings.
I am a perma-bull. I see the long term potential and am continuously surprised that others don't. Even when macros are working against TSLA, I still want to believe the fundamentals will win out. Probably the main reason why I don't believe in technical analysis, but that's another story. It's also the reason why I can't get myself to ever sell any shares, and the drop from $1,200+ down to <$650 was so painful (yes, I understand I didn't lose anything since I didn't sell, but my LEAPs were not very happy). So I am always optimistic about Tesla as a company and TSLA as an investment.
But man, my optimism is through the roof right now. Let's see.... we have a huge Q3 coming, followed by a Q4 that is going to seriously open some Wall Street and Main Street eyes; P/E multiples are going to decrease dramatically (don't get me started on the ridiculously low PEG ratio); we have new fund investors piling in; investment grade upgrade coming shortly; EV tax credit; AI day end of September; stock split; semi coming by eoy, followed by CT next year; ramp of both Berlin and Austin, added to increased output from Shanghai and Fremont; new GF to be announced by eoy. And we are entering the 4-5 month period of the year when TSLA tends to perform well. AND, all of the above happening with perfect timing of improving macros (start of a bull market?). Whew, how can one not be optimistic?
I know some of the above may go above investors' heads and will take time to develop (AI day, no tangible data on semi, CT and GF announcement). And of course there are potential black swan events that could develop. But I love our chances as the risk/reward seems to be so greatly in our favor.
LFG!
I am a perma-bull. I see the long term potential and am continuously surprised that others don't. Even when macros are working against TSLA, I still want to believe the fundamentals will win out. Probably the main reason why I don't believe in technical analysis, but that's another story. It's also the reason why I can't get myself to ever sell any shares, and the drop from $1,200+ down to <$650 was so painful (yes, I understand I didn't lose anything since I didn't sell, but my LEAPs were not very happy). So I am always optimistic about Tesla as a company and TSLA as an investment.
But man, my optimism is through the roof right now. Let's see.... we have a huge Q3 coming, followed by a Q4 that is going to seriously open some Wall Street and Main Street eyes; P/E multiples are going to decrease dramatically (don't get me started on the ridiculously low PEG ratio); we have new fund investors piling in; investment grade upgrade coming shortly; EV tax credit; AI day end of September; stock split; semi coming by eoy, followed by CT next year; ramp of both Berlin and Austin, added to increased output from Shanghai and Fremont; new GF to be announced by eoy. And we are entering the 4-5 month period of the year when TSLA tends to perform well. AND, all of the above happening with perfect timing of improving macros (start of a bull market?). Whew, how can one not be optimistic?
I know some of the above may go above investors' heads and will take time to develop (AI day, no tangible data on semi, CT and GF announcement). And of course there are potential black swan events that could develop. But I love our chances as the risk/reward seems to be so greatly in our favor.
LFG!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm gonna go ahead and predict the Moody's upgrade comes thru this week.
I would say they'll wanna do it before it gets embarrassing, but.....
I would say they'll wanna do it before it gets embarrassing, but.....
They will probably wait until the Semi starts shipping. (Since that would meet one of the criteria that they said was necessary for an upgrade.)
Tesla does not pay these guys.
Yeah, it could come out any day. Or maybe three years from now. Not worth anticipating or even talking about. The whole thing js a joke. Moody’s and all the credit rating agencies are a complete farce.
I did reference it a couple of days ago as a catalyst (which it would be - talk to the market) but it was in jest.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The market is equally ridiculous, it'll have a huge impact.
Just opening up another tier of funds that can(or have to) invest is delightful. Especially in such a squeezy period of skyrocketing earnings.
My perspective is that the Model 3 ramp was a "bet the company" inflection point, once it was done Tesla was in much better shape, but there was no low risk way of doing it, and/or it did pan out as expected, and it was too important to fail.
I see the following as lower risk inflection points:-
- FSD
- Optimus
- 4680 cell production
- Single crystal cathode - 4 Million Mile battery.
However, individually each is an inflection point similar to the model 3 ramp, Tesla with FSD is signicantly different, same for all of the list.
Even if none of the list is solved, we are still looking at 50% annual compound growth, subject to being able to source battery cells.
But imagine if Tesla solves FSD, and puts a 4680 4 Million Mile battery into each Robotaxi in a fleet.
Imagine if Optimus has the job of plugging in Robotaxis.
The best possible result might not happen, or might take longer to happen, but Business As Usual isn't too bad.
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Top "Tesla" Google search results for me show Tesla got picked by Investing.com as the Stock To Buy of the week. Hope it catches many investor's eyes for Monday morning. Although the article not 100% accurate (Senate passed IRAct before the weekend), I am not complaining.
Slices captured below. Link
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Slices captured below. Link
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Great work. But I have a serious question. Can you try it with cones? And also with the dummy turned sideways?
To prove Dan's fake we need to replicate his conditions as closely as possible.
(Except the part about leaving your foot on the accelerator!!!)
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bballshinobi
Member
Weekend retirement off-topic.
Watch out for One-More-Year syndrome.
Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
So, I’m assuming you are here reading this because you want to get yourself some more money. And since this is Mr. Money Mustache and not a standard financial publication, you’re willin…www.mrmoneymustache.com
Great read, but I couldn't help but think that people in my life who don't have any money is because they have too much confidence. "I can afford this because I can always make more money in the future" type of mentality is pervasive among people in their 20's and 30's. This article is clearly written by someone who has escape the rat race. Lack of money or confidence makes you want to overachieve, which actually leads to money and confidence.
Since we are in a midterm election year, looks like Sept/Oct may be another opportunity to buy low, See the blue line below for S&P500 performance on midterm election years between 1931 and 2018.
LINK: Capital Group Insights: U.S. midterm elections and market moves: 5 charts to watch
LINK: Capital Group Insights: U.S. midterm elections and market moves: 5 charts to watch
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Obviously, the survey was not comprised of people who had expertise in the subject. The dead giveaway is that Tesla is not even twice as likely as the next highest on the list.
Try to overlay this year's S&P performance on that chart, lol. Down over 20% in mid June. I'd say right now is as good a time to buy as any.
And the first vehicle could be called the Hindenburg!
Is this 3 Millionth vehicle produced stat altering anyones production estimates?
Tesla has made over three million cars, CEO Elon Musk tweeted on Sunday. Of that total, Tesla’s Shanghai factory has made one million cars, according to the tweet.
Tesla has made over three million cars, CEO Elon Musk tweeted on Sunday. Of that total, Tesla’s Shanghai factory has made one million cars, according to the tweet.
Weekend OT……
Just caught up with all the weekend posts. I really enjoyed all the retirement discussions - there are as many different perspectives on this as there are posters! It is amazing how much shareholder value Elon has created for his shareholders. Truly amazing.
I came to Tesla much later than many of you and I have never had a lot of assets to invest, so I have far fewer shares than most of you. There must be some others on the board like me as well. Some ideas like selling calls or selling a few shares here and there would not work for me, at least not now. But I am tremendously optimistic about the next few years so who knows. I’ll keep listening and considering and see what the future brings. I’m not ready to retire quite yet any way, though I’m getting there.
Love all of you and the vast experience and ideas you bring!
Just caught up with all the weekend posts. I really enjoyed all the retirement discussions - there are as many different perspectives on this as there are posters! It is amazing how much shareholder value Elon has created for his shareholders. Truly amazing.
I came to Tesla much later than many of you and I have never had a lot of assets to invest, so I have far fewer shares than most of you. There must be some others on the board like me as well. Some ideas like selling calls or selling a few shares here and there would not work for me, at least not now. But I am tremendously optimistic about the next few years so who knows. I’ll keep listening and considering and see what the future brings. I’m not ready to retire quite yet any way, though I’m getting there.
Love all of you and the vast experience and ideas you bring!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
IMO, it would better to sell small amounts of TSLA as you go than to raise the same amount of money trading options. That's because TSLA still has most of its growth in front of it and you have to risk more shares to raise the same amount of money. If trading options had higher returns than buying and holding then you should never buy the stock, just trade the options. But that's not how you reliably grow your capital.
One thing I learned long ago is that you should not base the wisdom of a certain strategy upon whether it's been working so far. The nature of options is that it's a game of statistics and you will never get a statistically significant sample by analyzing your own trading unless you are a more prolific trader than I can imagine. It's necessary to actually understand the underlying odds, not go by what seems to work.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think when most people reference "selling covered calls rather than just selling shares for living expenses", they're usually referring to selling something like at-the-money calls and pocketing the premiums.
That way if the share price goes up, you still have to sell the shares, but you also gain the premium. If it goes down then you just keep the premium and sell more calls.
I know you know this, just trying to clarify for those reading. It's not so much trading options as it is selling options and forgetting. Not very complicated or risky if you're already planning to sell some shares.
Plenty of good options basics threads if anyone wants more info.
“Tesla sales figures released for Q1 of 2022 are accounted for, there are over 2,645,000 Teslas on the road worldwide. This number includes 310,048 Teslas delivered in 2022 so far.
So add on the 258,000 in Q2…..
So 2,903,000 total cars produced at EoQ2.
And 3,000,000 as of today?
97,000 for 1/2 of Q3?
So add on the 258,000 in Q2…..
So 2,903,000 total cars produced at EoQ2.
And 3,000,000 as of today?
97,000 for 1/2 of Q3?
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