Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Not sure I’m following what this means…can someone explain?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sounds like he is just bringing up more reasons for merger termination?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree that the MM's have this stock by the neck and are crushing the price as much as possible. The very people charged with making the market fair and efficient are as corrupt as hell and amazingly efficient at it. But I also know there is a limit to their influence. They cannot stem the tide of a flood of new buyers all wanting to own TSLA at once. And, when their influence breaks down the charade is called. When everyone can see the stock is starting to fly, that's when they become powerless to stop it. The main thing I took exception to with the @StarFoxisDown! post was the certainty presented that TSLA wouldn't start a big move until the actual Q3 earnings are released. I know that is one possibility, I just don't think it the most likely one. I've been closely watching market movements and individual highflyers for enough decades to be absolutely certain of one thing: That we really don't know how a stock will react in the short term. And I have written about this many times.
The reasons are two-fold. The primary reason that markets are inherently not predictable is that, if they were, the predictability would be capitalized on by market players and that would impact the market, making it unpredictable. Said another way, markets embody Newton's Third Law: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. That's why I say, "the market's job is to fool the most people as often as possible", and this is why it's a waste for individual investors to try to second guess short-term market movements in the absence of unique information that is not yet known or understood by the greater market. It is absolutely necessary to have a perspective that that is not understood by the greater market to be able to front-run it. Of course, there is also luck. I've never met a short-term trader that didn't admit they were playing very thin odds and luck had an outsized role.
The second reason we can't know the stock won't move before Q3 earnings release is that the quarter is not even over. We don't know how it will turn out yet. There could be further challenges in the final month. On the other hand, we could start seeing reports that things are going as well as hoped, perhaps even better. Blowout P&D numbers would be one possible catalyst. In other words, it's simply pre-mature to pretend to know how the short-term will play out with any level of certainty. In the long-term I think the trend we are witnessing is all but unstoppable.
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That is how I'm reading it. It is written to ensure the tax payer only gets the credit *when* they sell the product to an "unrelated person". They can't just sell something to themselves.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
True, but I would not have used the word "just" in that context. This is how you win. By getting the totality of evidence on your side. It's as if you made an offer to buy a house and the inspections showed not only was the square footage exaggerated but it had serious termite damage around the foundation and the electrical system was dangerous and unreliable because it wasn't built to code. Not only that, but the sellers also knew of these problems and failed to disclose them before the sale (even if they were ignorant the house was not as big as they thought it was). I think Elon still wants the house but not for the price that was based on misrepresentation.
I'm guessing they settle for a price in the mid to high $40's per share rather than $54. Securities law protects buyers from lack of disclosure and I think you would be somewhat hard pressed to find a judge that would force him to pay the price agreed upon before the latest misrepresentations were brought to light. It's fraudulent for the seller to not disclose things they knew about, and this is even more true in securities law than in homebuying. Not only did Twitter have sins of omission with this purchase/sale- agreement, but they also were hiding pertinent information from shareholders and the market in general.
ZachF
Active Member
So far this year US solar generation is up 28% from last year.
navguy12
Active Member
My account now shows a correct post split share count as of 0733 EDT, 30 Aug 2022.
If fraud is discovered then twitter will be sued to oblivion by their ad clients. I really think Musk should walk away as it's becoming radio active.
I think the part Rob was concerned about is:
With his fear being that a car is not an eligible component, thus breaking the chain of applicability. However, I think the purpose of this passage is to explicitly ensure inclusion of all eligible components, not to exclude the final product.
This more favorable view is even more reasonable when one considers that item 4 applies to all products in the section (wind turbines, solar, inverters), not just electrodes, cells, and batteries.
Further, the credits are unlinked from the final item price, so the ultimate cost of the sold assembly is not in play. Only the raw material costs need special accounting treatment/ focus.
Edit: taking the conservative view to the extreme; under this clause, only the the sub components would be eligible, not the final listed item.
"a person shall be treated as having sold an eligible component to an unrelated person *only* if such component is integrated, incorporated, or assembled into another eligible component which is sold to an unrelated person"
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Same here. My Canadian TD Waterhouse account had the wrong #shares to yesterday but now it is correct. So wrong for 3 business days.
For the 5-1 split TD had the correct #shares at the first market open.
I think the reason is because unlike the 5-1, this time I traded between the record date and the new basis day.
Alexandra tweeted on why her quest to have Moodys and SP Global upgrade Tesla.
“Here my research on $AAPL and the impact of them obtaining investment grade credit rating in April 2013.”
Linear:
Link to tweet and chart in log form
“Here my research on $AAPL and the impact of them obtaining investment grade credit rating in April 2013.”
Linear:
Link to tweet and chart in log form
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I didn't understand Rob's interpretation. It seems to me that selling the car would qualify as selling the cells.
I think this part of the bill is just there so that companies can't make lots of low-quality cells, store them in a warehouse, and claim the credit.
It seems like this rabbit hole is going deeper than even many on this board thought.
With the data I've seen and my past experience, I'd wager that we'll see some big things transpire over a short period of time. SEC fraud is totally in the cards now and DOJ involvement is near certainty. I don't see the purchase going through at this point at any price.
Also, I hope more whistleblowers step forward...
From my time at big tech companies, if certain folks are at the right place at the right time they can see the badness happening and they start to flee. Does anyone remember the Dell SEC investigation? I was young enough to be naive to see this bigger issue playing out when I left in 06, but business and engineering minded enough to know that Kevin was doing really weird things to the company. I had no idea how bad, but it ruined the company, for me personally, in a matter of 2 quarters.
I read it as the eligible component is the battery or battery pack which is an integrated sub-component of the car.
It honestly seems pretty straightforward to me.
This reminds me to always avoid using past correct information to inform future events. In other words 'do as I say, not as I do"!
From my error here to NASA choosing 60 year old design engines in SLS and tanks that are scaled up Space Shuttle tank designs, it becomes even more evident why simple forecast of future by the past is not quite so simple.
This issue seems only a simple uninformed mistake for me but...imagine if Germany had used past LNG transportation techniques rather than 'Tesla speed'.
There are so many really horrible decisions made by 'old men' who fail to update their information. That is one reason why I try to never vote for anyone less than two decades younger than me.
How about including huge step changes such as, for example, GigaPress, new paint shop and Structural battery pack. Each of those reduces part count by hundreds each. Hence a simple average goes up. Still, unless line of code and other production process changes are included it seems logically impossible to be 60 per day.
OTOH, I have visited the 2010 prizewinning super efficient Nissan Sunderland factory and Tesla Fremont, twice. Sunderland looked like the stone age compared with the now seriously obsolete 2015 Tesla Fremont, and the also obsolete 2017 Tesla Fremont.
Adding all the changes I can imagine there are 60 changes per day, easily. 60 parts a day, nope!
Krugerrand
Meow
Meh. I don’t think that paints a particularly dramatic picture. Not much happened for the SP for first 2 years of investment grade rating and it took a year+ for the first jump in intuitional purchases and then another 5 years for another jump.
Conclusion: Just because they can (buy) doesn’t mean they will (buy), and they’re likely to take their sweet cross buns time about it.
P.S. Just as likely to be a dud event as Q1 financials. It’s their game, they’ll play it how they want to screw as many people as they can to make money.
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