Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

It could be that Tesla overestimated demand when they approved the expansion. It's clear that at the end of Q2, Tesla management was expecting unlimited demand to continue. Now at end of Q3, it seems demand isn't unlimited.

Even if what you say has an element of truth, Tesla might have overestimated China demand .. maybe. But the Tesla demand the world over is much higher than the current and proposed production rate. If not at the current price, but at a slightly reduced price for sure. So Tesla will sell every car they make and every car they can make for the next many years.

 

[2daMoon]

Good lord, this times 100. This is the first time I put someone on ignore, but its not helping one bit when every post is a response to something I'm ignoring.

So, are you saying that they have it all wrong and ignor-ance is not actually bliss?

 

[Artful Dodger]

6 trading days left until P&D numbers come out, but as predicted, the shorts are using Macros to play chicken and keep the SP down as long as possible.

Shortz & hedgies always revert to their old tricks: they'll try to ride a descending curve into Earnings (in this case, either the MA(200) or Mid-BB, whichever suits their purposes).

That way, they insulate themselves from the effects of blow-out earnings by pre-weighting the SP, or they can benefit from bad macro surprises (like this week). Good to be evil, wot?

Chairs to the Longs!

 

[henchman24]

TSLA is in the process of tumbling down a cliff at the moment as it performs worse and worse against its beta with every passing moment. TSLA had a nice run of strength there but todays trading action really breaks all of the momentum and uptrend lines. Prepare some significant underperformance

So I doubt you’ll get woken up until this time next week

As perspective... if Tesla had performed to its beta during this drop... Tesla would be somewhere in the mid to high 230s.

 

[AndrewZ]

Except the following FACTS:

1) the US Gov is going to be PAYING Tesla $45/kwh of battery capacity in the USA for cars sold in the USA. Some here have estimated that is 1.5-2B/yr in incentives, not counting the buyer incentive of $7500/car.
2) Tesla has effectively ZERO debt. They will weather a recession FAR FAR better than most companies because they don't have to go beg for money. Literally, they are a money-printing machine.
3) Many states and national governments have MANDATED EV sales by the 2030s. That's a demand lever that has been pulled by other parties in favor of Tesla. And it favors Tesla more than anyone else because Tesla has used the past decade to put in place the capacity to build millions of EVs per year. No one else has that in place.

Companies will need the battery incentives to offset what will surely be much higher costs tied to more domestic production of these things while staying cost competitive with the much cheaper production out of Asia.

Tesla had cancelled a $1b bond sale backed by vehicle leases six months ago and that was attributed to market volatility, so taking on debt definitely seems to be in the cards. Having minimal debt is a huge advantage going into a recession but my concern would be the capital-intensive nature of building massive factories and still hitting current production timelines while working through the recession or whatever is coming for us right now.

The fact that Tesla is holding up so well is testament to the strength of the company, because otherwise I think the natural inclination would be fleeing a business with such high capital requirements in an environment like this

 

[GOVA]

What worries me is that Gordo joins this forum and this forum give it 8 pages of posts. When will we learn?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As perspective... if Tesla had performed to its beta during this drop... Tesla would be somewhere in the mid to high 230s.

Doesn’t chance anything about what I said. TSLA WAS showing tremendous strength by holding the uptrend line overview past 6-7 trading days.

That’s gone now and that uptrend line being taken out, TSLA is going to see significant underperformance until we get data changes that which is P/D numbers. It doesn’t help that we have prominent TSLA Twitter account spewing fear mongering.

So has TSLA over performanced for the past month? Yes

Are we about to see a period of underperformance until next Friday? Very likely given todays trading

 

[Artful Dodger]

What worries me is that Gordo joins this forum and this forum give it 8 pages of posts. When will we learn?

No, el Gordo is somewhere out on the Russia/Norway border... /s

 

[Ogre]

Strongman had a quite the change.....I mean a carebear should not have to change gender in order to post here.

Very frustrating seeing the page dominated by page after page of replies to a sock puppet.

Can people update their ignore lists and move on please.

 

[Usain]

I think I need to create a bot that does the following:

1. Detect Tesla recall
2. Verify recall will be fixed with OTA update
3. If #2 is true, buy the dip

I'm getting tired of doing this manually.

 

[Pezpunk]

What if Troy is the real care bear?
He is always low balling the delivery estimates towards the end of each quarter, TSLAQ amplifies his lowball estimates and market makers go to work dropping TSLA at the end of each quarter .
Since Q3 deliveries are going to be extremely good compared to previous quarters, the doom and gloom has shifted to demand issues .

Is it me or does anyone else see the pattern here?

Troy’s estimates get more accurate the later in the quarter it is, not less. This is just wishful thinking on your part, which is a mental weakness you should seek to weed out as a rational investor.

 

[henchman24]

Doesn’t chance anything about what I said. TSLA WAS showing tremendous strength by holding the uptrend line overview past 6-7 trading days.

That’s gone now and that uptrend line being taken out, TSLA is going to see significant underperformance until we get data changes that which is P/D numbers. It doesn’t help that we have prominent TSLA Twitter account spewing fear mongering.

So has TSLA over performanced for the past month? Yes

Are we about to see a period of underperformance until next Friday? Very likely given todays trading

It is underperforming today, but that is normal when a stock overperforms for a long period of time (and it has been much longer than 6-7 trading days).

I think the expectations and run up to P&D will be a rising tide. The expectations market wide are high (350++), and those that follow Tesla closely know the likelihood of surpassing them is very high. Big money will be chasing that for the pop on the 3rd. Today is just a day to capitalize on weakness. Big money can wait on the sidelines until the panic is over and scoop up shares cheaply as the dust settles. I'd be surprised if Tesla is negative next week unless the overall market decides to test lows.

 

[BornToFly]

As perspective... if Tesla had performed to its beta during this drop... Tesla would be somewhere in the mid to high 230s.

With EPS doubling this year, and again next year, TSLA should have never dropped below 1100 (366) this entire year - period.

Edit: We are down over 4% today for no good reason with 6 trading days left before record Q3 announced.

 

[UncaNed]

Doesn’t chance anything about what I said. TSLA WAS showing tremendous strength by holding the uptrend line overview past 6-7 trading days.

That’s gone now and that uptrend line being taken out, TSLA is going to see significant underperformance until we get data changes that which is P/D numbers. It doesn’t help that we have prominent TSLA Twitter account spewing fear mongering.

So has TSLA over performanced for the past month? Yes

Are we about to see a period of underperformance until next Friday? Very likely given todays trading

...partly because we're working together to make Technical Analysis a self-fulfilling prophesy?-

"TSLA is going to see significant underperformance until"

I'm asking, I have little opinion.

 

[ZsoZso]

Looks like TSLA was walking up the stairs for 4 days, then tried to take the elevator, but missed the step and fell into the elevator shaft.
OK, I'm not a TA, that's how far my chart reading-fu got...

 

[AndrewZ]

I think I need to create a bot that does the following:

1. Detect Tesla recall
2. Verify recall will be fixed with OTA update
3. If #2 is true, buy the dip

I'm getting tired of doing this manually.

Correlation ≠ Causation

Even if 1.1million vehicles needed to be brought in to have every window motor replaced, I don't think it would result in losing the equivalent of Honda's entire market capitalization lol

 

[henchman24]

With EPS doubling this year, and again next year, TSLA should have never dropped below 1100 (366) this entire year - period.

I would tend to agree with you, but plenty of factors at play there. Twitter drama with Elon selling a bunch of shares. Macro economic issues around the world leading to PE compressions across the board. Sky high PE valuations in 2021 that in hindsight, needed compression. War in Europe. Inflation with a very aggressive Fed willing to send the economy into recession and acknowledging they want job loss.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Troy’s estimates get more accurate the later in the quarter it is, not less. This is just wishful thinking on your part, which is a mental weakness you should seek to weed out as a rational investor.

This is factually wrong. How about you go back through 2021 instead of just focusing on Q1/Q2 of 2022. Troy has has been off many times. In fact posters here were much closer to the actual number than Troy was……and we weren’t changing our numbers every couple of weeks.

The only reason Troy has been more accurate in the past 2 quarters is because of the dynamics at play which limited Tesla’s ability to increase production. If you actually go back to Troys history when it comes to periods at which Tesla is ramping production, he’s been quite off.

Tesla has 3 factories ramping currently…….and actually technically 4 since we’ve seen material information that Fremont is in a minor expansion at the moment

 

[henchman24]

We are in the midst of the wider market tests now... market reaction over the next couple hours likely send the signal of where things are heading over the next 10 days. A rebound and this is likely a short term low. Support falling out and re-testing market lows looks pretty likely.

 

[BornToFly]

I would tend to agree with you, but plenty of factors at play there. Twitter drama with Elon selling a bunch of shares. Macro economic issues around the world leading to PE compressions across the board. Sky high PE valuations in 2021 that in hindsight, needed compression. War in Europe. Inflation with a very aggressive Fed willing to send the economy into recession and acknowledging they want job loss.

Yes, but none of that has or will materially impact Tesla's production and earnings growth.