Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Couch money grabbed another 78 shares. Thanks Reuters, you hacks.

 

[henchman24]

Yes, but none of that has or will impact Tesla's production and earnings growth.

I'd disagree.... War in Europe is likely to bring a strong recession to the area and rationing of energy. Which directly impacts people's ability to purchase Teslas and if rationing gets extreme enough, it could hurt Berlin production over the winter. Overall economic issues can hurt people's ability to afford cars too... now I'd say Tesla is likely the single best positioned automaker to demand issues, but if an 08 event hit (I don't think it will), we could see some issues even with Tesla.

Also, under an earnings compression event... earnings can grow and share prices can still plummet. If 50x is the new 100x (and we've seen those events happen in the past), then you have to double earnings to maintain the share price. The overall wider market tends to control that.

I should be clear that I'm not worried about Tesla's performance at all. I don't see signs things are lacking on their performance.

 

[Captkerosene]

I have looked into all of them, but I don’t like most of them. Solving the money problem seems more like the Gordon Johnson of the TSLA bull camp rather than a legitimate source.
Same goes for Best in Tesla.
Electrified doesn’t really talk about tesla financials.
Tesla Economist and Dave Lee dabble on pure speculation. I don’t believe in FSD and the bot.

Rob Maurer is the best out of these bunch. I feel Rob will post a video about Tesla’s demand problem in China and come to the same conclusion that I did.

I don’t believe in FSD and the bot.

I don't believe in Santa Claus. But every year presents keep showing up under the tree.

 

[2daMoon]

There has always been a disconnect between perception and reality with Tesla/TSLA. I don't expect that to change any time soon due to all the players with a stake in the game having influence over the doling out of the perception. There will continue to be otherwise inexplicable volatility for some time yet. Possibly decades.

Still, as a HODLer I rest easy, as I'm hearing the tightly wound TSLA Spring belting out a classic country number at the top of it's lungs to all who will hear.

PLEASE RELEASE ME,
LET ME GO​

 

[BornToFly]

I'd disagree.... War in Europe is likely to bring a strong recession to the area and rationing of energy. Which directly impacts people's ability to purchase Teslas and if rationing gets extreme enough, it could hurt Berlin production over the winter. Overall economic issues can hurt people's ability to afford cars too... now I'd say Tesla is likely the single best positioned automaker to demand issues, but if an 08 event hit (I don't think it will), we could see some issues even with Tesla.

Also, under an earnings compression event... earnings can grow and share prices can still plummet. If 50x is the new 100x (and we've seen those events happen in the past), then you have to double earnings to maintain the share price. The overall wider market tends to control that.

I should be clear that I'm not worried about Tesla's performance at all. I don't see signs things are lacking on their performance.

You just contradicted yourself. I agree the world is on fire, but there are plenty of people who will still buy cars and Tesla will continue to sell every car they can make. The last part is the only thing that should be reflected in the SP in a rational market. I'm just pointing out that for the last 9 months, the market has not been rational when it comes to TSLA (which is not surprising - just irritating).

 

[jkirkwood001]

TSLA bulls often criticize TSLA bears for looking backwards instead of forwards, but maybe the tides are turning.
I recommend you read your own post. Elon clearly used large order backlogs as evidence of good demand. That may have been true by end of Q2, but we're at end of Q3. Order backlogs are down immensely (Troy stated it dropped from 510K to ~300K over the quarter), so what Tesla's management said during Q2 earnings call about demand is irrelevant.


I agree with you. I will always thank TSLA for helping me reach millionaire status in my 20s.
That said, I have to be unbiased when I'm scrutinizing Tesla. I'm considering selling all my shares until we have further evidence that the China problem is demand-related or not. I don't think we'll going to be moving up for at least a few more years.

So I can listen to Mom... oooor I can listen to the consensus estimate from 120 analysts / professionals who's median 12-month estimate for TSLA's SP is US$492, a forecast increase of 69%:

That increase is despite including in the median calc GLJ's lowball estimate of $22.

Also, 82.5% of analysts predict a rise in SP vs. 12.5% who - like @Your Mom is leaning towards - predict a fall.

So, sorry Mom, I'm grown up now. Time for you to start knitting as your faculties clearly aren't as sharp as I remember. I'm good.

 

[Nocturnal]

You just contradicted yourself. I agree the world is on fire, but there are plenty of people who will still buy cars and Tesla will continue to sell every car they can make. The last part is the only thing that should be reflected in the SP in a rational market. I'm just pointing out that for the last 9 months, the market has not been rational when it comes to TSLA (which is not surprising - just irritating).

Especially in the income brackets of people who can afford 50-150k vehicles.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I find it quite amusing that a lot of people on here get all upset and fired up from a poster named "Your Mom"

 

[henchman24]

You just contradicted yourself. I agree the world is on fire, but there are plenty of people who will still buy cars and Tesla will continue to sell every car they can make. The last part is the only thing that should be reflected in the SP in a rational market. I'm just pointing out that for the last 9 months, the market has not been rational when it comes to TSLA (which is not surprising - just irritating).

I'm not contradicting. I'm saying there are potential issues out there and they're likelihood has increased over the summer. If those issues get worse, there could be a material impact on Tesla. I think as a longer timeframe, Tesla will be fine... but to think that war in Europe won't cause any issues at Tesla is misguided and ignoring reality. How much of an issue and what that impact should be on the share price is a debate.

 

[bkp_duke]

What worries me is that Gordo joins this forum and this forum give it 8 pages of posts. When will we learn?

Some here might be bored, don't spoil our fun.

 

[Tachyon]

Troy’s estimates get more accurate the later in the quarter it is, not less. This is just wishful thinking on your part, which is a mental weakness you should seek to weed out as a rational investor.

Yes, I am an investor in Tesla and not a trader . I buy and hold with a long term outlook and not base my buy decisions based on some short term delivery guestimate . Please explain to me how Troy’s guesses help anyone decide when to invest in tesla. They are a bunch of useless guestimates.

 

[2daMoon]

So I can listen to Mom, oooor I can listen to the consensus estimate from 120 professionals who's median 12-month estimate for TSLA's SP is US$492, a forecast increase of 69%:

View attachment 855657

That increase is despite including in the median calc GLJ's lowball estimate of $22.

Also, 82.5% of analysts predict a rise in SP vs. 12.5% who - like @Your Mom is leaning towards - predict a fall.

So, sorry Mom, I'm grown up now. Time for you to start knitting as your faculties clearly aren't as sharp as I remember. I'm good.

Nice site. Kinda weird though, as when I clicked the "Institutional" filter it still listed GLJ Research.

Perhaps it may also include "institutionalized" in that group?

 

[Off Shore]

NB I used to pay to be on this site. I stopped because I have to view replies to people I've put on ignore, making ignore a useless option because nobody here will leave the trolls alone. If the OWNERS of this site will fix it so I don't have to see replies to ignored members'posts I'll start paying again.

 

[AndrewZ]

Especially in the income brackets of people who can afford 50-150k vehicles.

Wealth destruction is also happening across almost all asset classes and that will predominately impact people who can afford $50-150k vehicles as they own most of the assets. Obviously those people will still not be in trouble, but watching declining asset values might lead to tightening up the purse strings.

We've had Model S Plaids in inventory on the Tesla site for some time, now starting to see Model X Plaids and regular Model S variants

New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Find new and used Tesla cars. Every new Tesla has a variety of configuration options and all pre-owned Tesla vehicles have passed the highest inspection standards.

www.tesla.com

But this is ultimately good for the consumer as Elon mentioned in a recent earnings call -- people don't want to wait for their burger, they want their burger when they want it.


Deflation is another thing to watch out for as it will have the opposite psychological impact when compared with inflation -- if people think prices might come down in the near future, they might hold off buying.

Declining used and trade-in values is another factor that could have a negative impact after the massive run up in prices, people who bought at the highs will likely be less inclined to sell or trade in at a big loss

 

[henchman24]

As this mild rejection continues, the level up to watch will be 11,130-11,140. If the market can puncture through that, a green day could be in the cards.

 

[Max Plaid]

Tomorrow, last Friday, soon. There's significant buying appetite, tons of looming upside to limit selling, and not much blocking TSLA between $300 and $333. So yes, any moment now!

Sorry man, I gave you a disagree... to be fair I find you quite agreeable, but your prediction success-rate is on a par with Jim Cramer's

 

[Chunky Jr.]

When they start cutting shifts at any of the factories, then I'll start to worry about demand problems. Last time I checked, they are looking to build more factories, not cut back at the ones they have.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wealth destruction is also happening across almost all asset classes and that will predominately impact people who can afford $50-150k vehicles as they own most of the assets. Obviously those people will still not be in trouble, but watching declining asset values might lead to tightening up the purse strings.

Obviously everything has an impact, but upper-middle/upper class folks are still pretty cash flush.

Americans Added $4.2 Trillion in Pandemic Savings Skewed to Rich

American households had an extra $4.2 trillion of readily available cash at the end of last year compared with before the pandemic, after they received more government support and trimmed spending due to Covid curbs, according to the latest Federal Reserve data.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Max Plaid]

OMG. WOW WOW WOW WOW,,,,,,,,, Possibly the SP is up strong in relation to the market is the FSD BETA. Elon has done it. Sorry folks but FSD really is phenomenal like landing rockets backwards on a platform on the ocean. It drives better and quicker than I do.
I"ll bet many people will have FOMO and having 90% in TSLA is too low now.
Do I seem enthusiastic? I am. Watching FSD and using it is logarithmic in belief. Thank you Elon and Tesla and AI and all the great service I have gotton. The FUD must be ramping up but they are just Clowns panhandling for a hot dog.

A photo of you driving recently...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm just pointing out that for the last 9 months, the market has not been rational when it comes to TSLA (which is not surprising - just irritating).

If it's any consolation, you can take solace in the fact that FactSet Research Systems Inc. was down -10.14% intraday at the bottom (their Q3 Earnings report was before the bell). Thusly triggering the 'alternate uptick rule' circuit breaker.

Ironic*, since FactSet routinely gets their 'facts' wrong on Tesla, also consistently off by >10%.



Cheers to the Longs!
*The universe loves irony even more than it loves futility.' -- Paul Russell