Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Please do excuse my ignorance of how US politics works, and this isn't meant to be a political post at all, but in the event of republican wins in the house, senate, and presidency, wouldn't all of this (the IRA) get cancelled in short order?, or is it a case of once started, it can't be turned back, sort of thing?

Once started, a program is hard to stop. It can be done, but the times it's actually happened are very few.

 

[Nocturnal]

Costco beat. I take that as a good sign from the demographic that can afford to buy Teslas.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It’s demand destruction in China and Europe more so than Powell that’s really causing pain in the oil markets.

I'd say China and Europe outlook killed any chance for a new peak in global demand for crude. That should mean killing the market for crude, but it didn't.

Powell saying the foundation of global markets isn't going to flinch is what's gonna let us get back to a fundamentals-based WTI market.

 

[Singuy]

Understand that it's not the interest rates killing the market, it's the purpose of the interest rate rise that's killing the market. The fed is trying to induce a recession to suppress inflation caused by supply chain issues and unusual migration.

Decades of unrealized gains from high cost of living areas are now being realized and spread across the U.S, this too increases the money supply.

 

[AndrewZ]

Seems like the market correct or crash according to future predictive of a recession vs the fed rates. I see many instances where the S&P rise with the fed funds rate and crash along with the fed funds rate.

This is the overlay

US - Federal Funds Rate vs. S&P 500 | US Market | Collection | MacroMicro

The chart shows that when the Fed enters a rate-rising cycle, the economy grows faster and the stock market can yield higher returns than the bond market.

en.macromicro.me

We also need to think about how the Fed uses interest rates to modulate the economy

Rate increases are used to subdue an economy that is overheated, with higher financing costs reining in demand and reducing activity
When the economy is struggling and needs help, that's when rate decreases are deployed to stimulate activity

So conceptually it makes sense for the indices to rise while interest rates are increasing, because the rates are increasing in response to strong (perhaps too strong) economic data.

In the same vein, the Fed won't start dropping rates until the economy is in bad enough shape to need help again -- that's when you would kinda expect to see the bottom.

 

[UncaNed]

Bought some Jan `25 350 strike leaps this AM. Missed the bottom, but am very happy with the purchase.

How could you know you missed the bottom?? It's only 10:54.

Edit - I totally misread your post, my bad, @bkp_duke

I've been idioticaly lowering my bids for jan 2025 300's since opening today... Haven't got any yet, but if SP drops a bit... Not that I'm rooting for that.

I like Jan 2025's. Lots of time for things to recover if something did go wrong.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sigh……….another day a TSLA underperformance. Let’s see if we get another 4X down the Nasdaq day

Out of all of the stocks I follow, which include quite a bat of risk/growth stocks as well as large cap and medium cap, TSLA is down anywhere from 3-5X everything else. It’s definitely being targeted.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Punted my 9/30 put spreads to after 3Q earnings. Enjoy the afternoon rebound to $302!

 

[Singuy]

We also need to think about how the Fed uses interest rates to modulate the economy

Rate increases are used to subdue an economy that is overheated, with higher financing costs reining in demand and reducing activity
When the economy is struggling and needs help, that's when rate decreases are deployed to stimulate activity

So conceptually it makes sense for the indices to rise while interest rates are increasing, because the rates are increasing in response to strong (perhaps too strong) economic data.

In the same vein, the Fed won't start dropping rates until the economy is in bad enough shape to need help again -- that's when you would kinda expect to see the bottom.

You said the market doesn't bottom until the Fed stop raising rates, however in reality it's exactly the opposite. The market TOPs when the fed stop rising rates, and bottoms when the rate hits rock bottom. You see this in the overlay.

 

[SmokyPeat]

How could you know you missed the bottom?? It's only 10:54.

I've been idioticaly lowering my bids for jan 2025 300's since opening today... Haven't got any yet, but if SP drops a bit... Not that I'm rooting for that.

Well, if the price dropped from where he bought, he missed the bottom. Nailing the tops and bottoms is a fairly unrealistic expectation, though we might get lucky every so often

 

[NicoV]

The pound is headed to parity.

Honestly, the whole of Europe is in a huge negative paradigm shift, similar to what occurred in the US in the 1970s. Just like the US in the 1970s, Europe’s global economic standing is going to drop considerably in the next few years.

In the early 1970s the US had to start importing lots of energy after local oil production peaked, competing with Europe and Japan for the same energy resources. The loss of cheaper local energy caused an economic paradigm shift that echoed throughout the industrial economy severely hurting several industries. This was made worse by much of the top engineering talent being siphoned off by the weapons industry.

The same thing, but a little different is happening to Europe right now. Europe has been falling steadily behind the US and Asia in technology. Now because of the mistake of relying on Russia for their energy, they have the highest energy prices in the world, and they will for the foreseeable future. They also have the highest taxes and regulatory cost in the world, and on top of this, their workers work less hours than any workers in the world. They *might* be able to swing this if they were leaders in technology, but as I’ve said above they’ve fallen deeply behind. For instance, California spends more on R&D now than Germany, France and Britain …combined!

Now europe is getting an adjustment just like the US did in the 1970s.

What is your timeframe for ‘the highest energy prices in the world for the foreseeable future’?

Putin succeeded in realising what no European politician has been able to do: instigate a huge carbon-tax.
The European economy in that ‘foreseeable future’ will be driven by the desire to eliminate that carbon tax. Compared to the USA, Europe is already very frugal with energy consumption, and this lead will increase heavily and fast driven by this carbon tax incentive. E.g. some anecdotal evidence in the news of roofers having a 2 year backlog for renovating and isolating roofs.
There’s a huge amount of new wind energy capacity in the pipelines, and there’s a very long backlog for new solar installations.
When this episode of energy shortages is behind us, Europe will be much more competitive (and green!) energy-wise than the USA, just like what happened during the oil crisis in the seventies.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bought some Jan `25 350 strike leaps this AM. Missed the bottom, but am very happy with the purchase.

You should have waited. Usually when TSLA gets targeted like this, it last for many more days, especially on days when the macros rally. Combined with Tesla now completely losing the uptrend line, I expect to see a lot of continued weakness that will negate a lot of the strength the stock has shown. I’d venture to say that unless P/D numbers come in much better than expected, the impending rally has been pushed back to Q3 earnings

 

[Nocturnal]

Any thoughts on when we might see Master Plan 3? Feels like it might help frame whatever we learn on AI Day 2.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol....just flipped on Bloomberg to a live shot from London outside Parliament. Some random guy in the background clear as day yells out, "F*** the Tories!"

Hilarious. Total trainwreck in the UK.

GBP down to $1.0925

Londoners making over £1M/yr get a £40k tax cut under this new proposed budget. Those making £150k or more cuts a modest tax cut. Everyone else......safety net cuts & get back to work.

 

[Mengy]

Any thoughts on when we might see Master Plan 3? Feels like it might help frame whatever we learn on AI Day 2.

Honestly I'm surprised we haven't seen it already. He's taking his time with it, so I really have no idea if we'll even see it this year anymore.

 

[Paracelsus]

TSLA bottom? Still guessing a dip maybe into the high 250's before this is over - with a mid-week head-fake dipping below the 3-year support just before earnings are released..........at which point we blow through the 1-year resistance line. All those who helped manipulate the stock above the 1-year resistance line and then back into the wedge with the help of Mr. Powell earlier this week will be rewarded with an extra 20% on the way back up. Note that we will comfortably close the week back in the wedge, and the 1 year chart will reflect that end-of-week close going forward. Seeing the care bears show up this week along with a ramped up FUD effort that includes major 'news' distributions like The Guardian and Forbes really starts to stink of the half dozen times this has played out similarly in the past with TSLA. This is not an advice.

 

[geometro]

The problem for me is I am too rational. Every time I look at the Data I think "this is a can't lose buy!" then the market slaps me in the face with a cold dead fish.

For TSLA to be at these prices TODAY is absurd. We all know the positive catalyst's that are underway.

The negative news IMHO really has a small bearing on Tesla's ability to outperform every other Car/Energy/Software company out there.....wait there are no other Car/Energy/Software companies now are there?

Still the price hair cutting continues

The challenge is the macro environment and potential damping of demand across consumers, globally (with higher prices, higher rates, lower growth).

 

[henchman24]

Punted my 9/30 put spreads to after 3Q earnings. Enjoy the afternoon rebound to $302!

I appreciate your sacrifice!

 

[AndrewZ]

You said the market doesn't bottom until the Fed stop raising rates, however in reality it's exactly the opposite. The market TOPs when the fed stop rising rates, and bottoms when the rate hits rock bottom. You see this in the overlay.

I said we've never seen a market bottom while the Fed is in the process of raising rates, that's not the same as saying it doesn't bottom until the hikes stop. My own speculation was that we'll see this bottom when they pause to assess the damage next year.

The overlay you provided definitely shows that we don't see market bottoms while rates are increasing, but it does show that even my speculation might be overly optimistic and the next bottom could be even further out rather than coinciding with the pause. If the market bottom doesn't hit until rates drop hard again, we're looking at many many more months of pain before this is over.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Honestly I'm surprised we haven't seen it already. He's taking his time with it, so I really have no idea if we'll even see it this year anymore.

Master Plan 3 must be more than 5 lines this time. Takes time for Elon to write all that.