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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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What do you mean what are the plans for producing these? Isn’t it obvious?

They’ll do it just like they did for the first cars. When they get to an iteration that’s good enough, they’ll build a production line in one of their 6? factories at that time and start making them, slowly increasing the rate of production, increase efficiencies, reiterate the production line, continue to improve the product with regular engineering changes and OTAs etc….

Your question does not compute.
Elon wanted to reassure people who might be worried abut the Robot being used in ways which harm humans. But it is hard to give a level of reassurance that will satisfy everyone. And if Tesla doesn't do robots others will.
Hard for Bot to hurt anyone from what I saw. You need to wheel it around in a wheel chair and all it does is wave at people.

I was hoping for a little more.
 
There are so many questions no one clarified. Like how is training done on optimus that scales? Right now it seems like they are doing motion capture and that does not scale. How will optimus understand intent? Planning and logic is perhaps FSD's highest on the needs improvement list. Also how does driving video data translate to usable data for a robot geared to do completely different tasks?
It seems your task is to get invited next time so that someone is asking the right questions, eh?
 
1) the progress tesla made in a year was amazing.

2) I told y’all here and Reddit not to expect crazy demos (reading predictions like jugglign or an audience member asking to pick a color from a set of items on the floor). You’re only disappointing yourselves (or getting your hopes up from hype influencers).

3) the actual robot demos were not “state of the art”. Again, I also pointed this out when referencing one of the major robotics professors at UCLA that works with/keeps in close contact with the Tesla team.

4) actual revolutionary robotics demos aren’t that important because Teslas strength is in mass profitable manufacturability and integration with software.

5) while the software today for the bot want impressive, the roadmap was (and details of which neural nets will actually be used with the bot).

Innovation disappoints in the short term and surprises in the long term. The bot has a very low bar to clear to be meaningfully profitable for tesla even with a limited set of use cases. It’s going to clear it.
 
What I want to see at AI day

Optimus hardware: individual elements, hands, skin, haptics, motors, face (eyes+hearing) and how they are going to improve them over time.
We got detail on motors and hands, but nothing on skin or haptics (or other senses). Statement about improving over time, but no plan.
Optimus software: the neural nets, general training for walking, etc.
Reasonable level of detail on this.
Optimus training: how it is trained for specific tasks
The training for tasks using a human to show the basic task and then software to compute variations was interesting.
Optimus networking & feedback: how they learn
Not really covered, it all seemed to be training on the servers - not learning in the bot.
Optimus manufacturing: development bots, large scale manufacturing.
Designed for manufacturing, they obviously have plans for manufacturing but are not sharing.
DOJO update, v2?, scaling, performance, selling systems or time on systems.
Pretty comprehensive update.
FSD update, training, HW4
Lots of FSD training, if they mentioned HW4 I must have missed it.
AI for robotaxi service
Not mentioned.
AI use in Factory OS.
Not mentioned.
AI usage elsewhere in Tesla (+SpaceX?)
Not mentioned.
AI/bot ecosystem.
DOJO as a service and Bot customisation mentioned, but no real detail.
If we get an update on all these, with progress and development path I will be more than happy.

Any progress towards AGI would be a bonus.

So in the main this AI day 2 met my expectation.

What struck me was how much effort seems to be placed on performance, the number of times latency, compute times and performance improvements were mentioned was high. DOJO is all about how do we get performance in the rest of the system, not in the compute nodes (that are relatively easy).
 
Nvidia's H100 is suppose to be 6-30x better than A100(I don't know, it's probably lots of marketing and very application specific). So it should provide ...X amount of performance increase for the same cost like Dojo. A good question would be if the H100 will be purchased by Tesla or how it compares to that when it comes to cost savings.
Non issue if the chip is better, it's on the wrong platform. Dojo is replacing dozens of server racks with a few dojo tiles. The cost savings of the platform dwarf the chip efficiency difference you asked about.
 
I'm sorry, but I have no idea - again this is all over my head - but I was hoping to be wow'd, as a layperson, by the people asking questions who are supposed to be great designers and engineers (so much so that Tesla is actively bringing them on-site to recruit them).
Are you forgetting that a bunch of the people there were just random shareholders that were invited from the lottery?
 
To be honest, I fell asleep halfway during the presentation it was way over my head - that is why I cannot say how far they are ahead or not when compared to for instance Google or Boston Dynamic.

What I can say is that; whenever anyone says that Tesla is “just a car company” let them watch this presentation.
I also see that software is everything. If FSD is “solved” then - with few adaptations - Optimus is solved too. The hardware for Optimus would not be too difficult as far as I can see it.
 
I must be a bear because I do not see how we go from the 360 everyone is counting on to 495 the next quarter. A 35% + increase QoQ? No way.

Tesla Shanghai was down for between 2-3 weeks for each production line upgrade in Q2. And we just found out the 'National Holiday' will be just a 2-day break for Giga Shanghai instead of 7 days in past years. That's ~30% right there. Now, add in the 22K/wk production upgrade... ;)
 
I see the potential, I just don't see it solving that many problems.

Like solar can produce electricity without combusting a fuel. An EV can drive on electricity.

Obviously there's the problem of me not having enough money. Overjoyed that's being addressed, but I can already drive, mow my lawn, clean my bathroom. I assume I could effectively work in a Gigafactory too. And if I don't wanna do those things I can just pay someone else.

I'll take the money, but I'd rather see more energy put into Energy to be honest. Europe CAN NOT transition to renewables without insane amounts of storage and software. And they want to do that today. I am of course biased!

Sorry to pee in the corn flakes. I'll just leave y'all be. Enjoy!
Auto and Energy will turn out to just have been there to provide funds (and a foil in the case of FSD) to support AGI development. Sort of, but not quite, like a side hustle. (It’s similar to the likelihood that the money in Boring tunnels will be on the real estate/land use side rather than the digging of tunnels or the running of cars in them.)

Don’t feel bad if it doesn’t register yet—it won’t for most anyone else—though if you hold long enough it will. It seems that Elon himself is only realizing these things as he is going along. Fortunately, he has the bit between his teeth on FSD and Optimus. (Also, Elon mentioned ’emergent property’ a couple of times wrt intelligence so likely somebody has been reading Stephen Grossberg.)

The Future descendeth upon us with accelerating fury.
 
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The most impressive thing was the perception view of the robot completing tasks imo.

Having it walk on stage was just proof the thing exists and can move.
Did you guys watch the same thing I did? Optimus not only walked on stage, but turned to it's left, and then danced just like Elon! Granted, it was subtle, but the more I watch it the more impressed I am. That robot will be running the 660 next year, throwing strikes along the way... very impressive!
 
Non issue if the chip is better, it's on the wrong platform. Dojo is replacing dozens of server racks with a few dojo tiles. The cost savings of the platform dwarf the chip efficiency difference you asked about.
Well of the H100 gives a 6x gain vs a A100, then that exactly what Dojo is replacing so it's saving as much money as a H100 vs an A100.

It's kind of hard to compare the two because the compiler makes all the difference. I would have asked if Tesla has problems leveraging peak BF16 performance of an A100 vs Dojo. Also the H100 is on the newest Tsmc 4nm and it seems to be using 700w per gpu with 1petaflop of bf16 performance. Dojo is using 100kw per 54petaflop of performance. However is this even apples to apples? If so then Dojo is using 2x the power. Wish some people in the audience are tech journalists so they can ask some questions.
 
My personal A.I day summary:

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