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This is the beginning of the leak turning into a firehose of other countries complaining and getting their way around this POS legislation.
Tesla is already set up to benefit from it and have plenty of infrastructure in place to execute. Tesla is forward thinking.. this crap will give other companies and countries more time to "try" and catch up to them. Total BS
We weren't discussing Elon personally buying- we were discussing a corporate buyback which generally needs to be announced in advance (and generally doesn't happen during quiet periods either without a 10b1 plan).
Elon personally buying via an automated plan while the twitter case isn't settled would be capital-d-dumb, contradict the explicit reason he said he sold last time, and I don't think he'd do either, so while I'm not "sure" he isn't doing that it would be...unlikely....and not make any actual sense... but also not what was even being discussed.
Hey Elon, send those 50 Battery Experts you sent from Germany to the US to help ramp the 4680's in Austin back to Giga Berlin. Turns out it doesn't matter where anything is made after all.
No worries Elon..
For the record if an airplane full of foreign lobbyists crashed into the "Nikola production factory", I wouldn't lose any sleep.
Obviously intl trade is deeper than I thought. Maybe the strategy should have been to incentivize OEM Factories to build locally long ago. That and the whole outsourcing trend is sad.
This is the beginning of the leak turning into a firehose of other countries complaining and getting their way around this POS legislation.
Tesla is already set up to benefit from it and have plenty of infrastructure in place to execute. Tesla is forward thinking.. this crap will give other companies and countries more time to "try" and catch up to them. Total BS
The USA gets to avoid a trade war which it would have brought on itself due to flagrant breach of its WTO obligations. The USA thereby avoids losing every court case brought against it under WTO rules.
WTO obligations are there both when you want them, and when you don't want them.
WTO rules create the free market for goods. I thought that's what the USA wanted ?
Basically the Billions and Billions that all these companies have been committing to build car and battery factories in the US is going to slow down or stop?
Why build in the US when we can get the same incentives globally??
These effing beaurocrats... #Inflation Induction Act
That's it, I am not paying my massive tax bill Monday
I’m sure this is a joke, but just in case someone does not interpret it that way, I have to point out when Tesla buys stock it increases each shareholders ownership in Tesla, thereby providing value to the shareholders. When Elon buys back stock, this does not occur.
$700 billion mkt cap, buying 1% back would cost $7billion.
Do you think buying back 1% is going to make a difference in the
stock price and earnings per share ? Retiring 1% of stock will
Have negligible impact on the eps.
hoarding cash for now is insurance against bankruptcy.
The best a buy back can do is send a signal that the
stock is cheap, and that might have the half life of a fruit fly.
The USA gets to avoid a trade war which it would have brought on itself due to flagrant breach of its WTO obligations. The USA thereby avoids losing every court case brought against it under WTO rules.
WTO obligations are there both when you want them, and when you don't want them.
I am not a WTO expert, I am a registered investment advisor, so I don't know anything about those rules and regulations.
However, don't our elected officials and their thousands of aides and experts and lawyers know a thing or 2 about the WTO? Why wasn't this addressed or considered or researched before it ever came to a vote?
The professional seismologists at the US Geological Survey who have expertise with the geology and seismic risk in the San Fransisco Bay Area are saying stuff that does not make it sound to me like building codes are adequate to prepare the East Bay for the next Big One from the Hayward fault, a "tectonic time bomb" ready to release a "powerful, damaging earthquake...at any time". This could happen next week for all we know. Their analysis also in no way whatsoever indicates that such an earthquake "can be recovered from relatively quickly" as you suggest.
A 7.0+ quake from the Hayward fault would be one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of North America. It sucks, but it's reality and Tesla needs to be prepared for this possibility and have plenty of extra cash on hand in case it happens soon. We are lucky as investors and a species that this fault didn't rupture between 2012 and 2020, because that probably would have bankrupted the company when they were low on cash, low on market cap, and solely reliant on Fremont.
I urge investors who are advocating for Tesla to part with precious cash for a buyback right now to read these two fact sheets and then see how confident you feel afterward that the Fremont factory's cash flow is anywhere close to 100% reliable just because Tesla is awesome and smart.
These USGS reports don't explicitly use the term but that's probably the most accurate single-word summary of the potential outcome, and for those of you reading this who live in the Bay Area, on a personal level please make sure you have a serious plan for earthquake preparedness. This will come, and the only main questions are exactly when, where and how much energy will be released all at once.
This is just the Hayward fault. The San Andreas is further away from Fremont, but it has even more potential energy stored up and has had 7.9-magnitude quakes in 1857 near southern California and in 1906 right next to San Francisco. The Richter scale is logarithmic. A 7.9 quake has 8x more energy than a 7.0 quake like the USGS modeled for a likely outcome from the Hayward fault.
Also, the Fremont plant was built in 1961. I would not be surprised if was built to a lower standard than something built today and the retrofitting, if any, is not good enough to fully prepare it for a huge quake. Even if it is, the tremendous destruction and chaos surrounding it, with mangled roads and rail lines and other public utilities, thousands of homeless, fires everywhere, etc. would prevent it from keeping production going like it is now, or maybe at all for months on end.
What about Giga Shanghai? We've already seen that the Chinese Communist Party is willing to shut it down for weeks on end for no good reason (and Alameda County, California has shown this willingness too, now that I think about it). What if they did it for three months? What if another even worse pandemic than COVID is right around the corner? Mother Nature doesn't care that we just had a pandemic and want to be done with it. Bacterial and viral evolution is all random and the timing can be unfair and cruel.
But for Shanghai the big risk is severe flooding. Does any building code really save the city and factory from severe damage in the event of a five-hundred-year flood? If I remember correctly, Giga Shanghai's land was a swampy marsh before Tesla drained it and built a factory on it. It sits about 3 meters above sea level and is just a few kilometers from the sea, with a network of nearby canals for the farms that neighbor it on the floodplain.
Do this look like good real estate for being protected if and when a tsunami or storm surge hits the Shanghai peninsula?
Hurrican Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005. It took until 2022, 17 years, for the New Orleans metro area population to once again reach 1 million people where it was at in 2004. Storm surge flooding from Hurricane Sandy caused tens of billions of dollars of damage to New York City and disrupted the city for weeks. As some of our Houston and Galveston members can personally attest, Hurricane Harvey flooding caused severe damage that was not exactly recovered from quickly, with an estimated total damage of $125 billion. Oil refinery capacity, which the US Gov't considers critical to national security, took a major hit and production output in the Gulf Coast fell by 21%. (link) Where was the code preventing that from happening? Severe flooding can cause tremendous damage with long-lasting aftereffects.
As far as I can tell, Shanghai is about as vulnerable as New Orleans, if not more. I didn't look into this very long, but here is one study from the University of Leeds that puts Shanghai as the most vulnerable to flooding out of 9 major coastal cities at high risk.
Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the New Orleans metro area from 1950 to 2023. United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035.
www.macrotrends.net
I think the data is clear that Tesla does have serious risk of disasters causing extended disruptions of business continuity at Shanghai and Fremont. Shanghai and SF are just unfortunately located. They're great spots for ports to the Pacific Ocean, which is why they became so big and prosperous in the first place, but they're right in the line of fire for Mother Nature's wrath.
I'm not very confident that it's as simple as just accelerating the growth at the other three factories. I don't believe production allocation between factories on opposite sides of the planet is necessarily fungible like that, and even to the extent that it is fungible, accelerating a ramp is generally going to require extra capital and there will almost certainly be a lag of at least a month before additional supplies can be redirected to a different factory. Boats are slow and Earth is big. If Fremont is out of commission for half a year, can Austin just pick up the slack? Possibly not. It depends on what the limiting factor is for Austin. If not, we might have to wonder why Austin wasn't just producing more in the first place, considering that it has a much cheaper cost of production than Fremont has.
There is a material risk that something terrible happens to Fremont, Shanghai, or both, and in that time are we really sure that Berlin and Austin could suddenly start making 300k cars per quarter?
3 years from date of filing.. that is the extent of time the IRS has to come after you.
If you make it 3 years and a day with no correspondence, you have a lot of paper to burn in the fireplace and keep your house warm. Might help fight the rising energy prices!
Edit: FYI, the 3 year rule works both ways. If you have a refund because there was a mistake when you filed, and if you don't catch it in time our good friends at the IRS keep it.
You forgot to mention the 25% US import tariff on trucks, which is the best selling category in the US and which is now protected from foreign competition.
So if we give tax breaks in US for Made-in-USA, this is some sort of trade discrimination? Wasn't that a key point of the IRA?
Maybe the EU could consider their own Made-in-the-EU credits? (Or are we not there yet?)
I assume that if the deal entails that EU built cars don’t need to contain a certain percentage of parts made in the US, then this rule will also no longer apply to US built cars (Tesla).
This is the beginning of the leak turning into a firehose of other countries complaining and getting their way around this POS legislation.
Tesla is already set up to benefit from it and have plenty of infrastructure in place to execute. Tesla is forward thinking.. this crap will give other companies and countries more time to "try" and catch up to them. Total BS
How about if their BEV's are made, not just assembled, in the US the IRA applies; if not, it doesn't and we match their 10% import duties on all vehicles send or merely assembled in the US. In addition to making EV's more affordable, the IRA intends to increase (or maintain) employment in the auto sector in the US... Not Europe! Also need to keep in mind the number of jobs that will be lost as the number of ICE vehicles decreases, substantially in a few years, and that includes suppliers and subcontractors.
We weren't discussing Elon personally buying- we were discussing a corporate buyback which generally needs to be announced in advance (and generally doesn't happen during quiet periods either without a 10b1 plan).
Elon personally buying via an automated plan while the twitter case isn't settled would be capital-d-dumb, contradict the explicit reason he said he sold last time, and I don't think he'd do either, so while I'm not "sure" he isn't doing that it would be...unlikely....and not make any actual sense... but also not what was even being discussed.
Nah, buybacks don't currently require announcement:
"Importantly, after a repurchase announcement – which is voluntary for an issuer to make - an issuer retains considerable discretion on when to implement any repurchases and how much to repurchase at any point in time." https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93783.pdf
You forgot to mention the 25% US import tariff on trucks, which is the best selling category in the US and which is now protected from foreign competition.
The USA gets to avoid a trade war which it would have brought on itself due to flagrant breach of its WTO obligations. The USA thereby avoids losing every court case brought against it under WTO rules.
WTO obligations are there both when you want them, and when you don't want them.
WTO rules create the free market for goods. I thought that's what the USA wanted ?
Nah, buybacks don't currently require announcement:
"Importantly, after a repurchase announcement – which is voluntary for an issuer to make - an issuer retains considerable discretion on when to implement any repurchases and how much to repurchase at any point in time." https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93783.pdf
Are you aware of any large cap company ever doing one without announcing it first?
As your doc mentions-
"Because, similar to
information on individual insider trades, such information is likely to have a short-term
component, its timely disclosure is expected to be relevant for investors"
Generally major companies announce to avoid any potential appearance of acting on insider info as a corporation.... (the fact a rebuy is happening could itself be considered material NPI if unannounced)-- and in fact that's why the proposed rules you cite to are proposing to increase reporting requirements on rebuys even WITH an announced plan.
I am not a WTO expert, I am a registered investment advisor, so I don't know anything about those rules and regulations.
However, don't our elected officials and their thousands of aides and experts and lawyers know a thing or 2 about the WTO? Why wasn't this addressed or considered or researched before it ever came to a vote?
Saying it is not doing it. Those stipulations were put in the law! You'd need to pass another law to fix it. Good luck with that! I think this is just saying nice things to smooth this over...
Reuters are reporting that "European Union and U.S. officials expect to reach agreement that would grant EU companies, including electric car makers, the same status as U.S. ones in the U.S. market, to avoid what the EU calls discrimination against its producers by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act."
"EU manufacturers will receive the same status, and they must spend 100% of their IRA money on expanding their U.S. auto and battery manufacturing facilities."
to the US to help ramp the 4680's in Austin back to Giga Berlin. Turns out it doesn't matter where anything is made after all. 
www.macrotrends.net
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