Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ThisStockGood]

I think Elon punked everyone today. He probably knew there would be front running on any sales, so he didn't sell any. Tomorrow we are probably green in premarket, and he will sell at the open....

 

[elasalle]

I think Elon punked everyone today. He probably knew there would be front running on any sales, so he didn't sell any. Tomorrow we are probably green in premarket, and he will sell at the open....

Unless Elon files some forms tonight that clarify this, MM will be at it tomorrow morning ... take advantage if it presents itself

 

[replicant]

If you

1. had ~20K of TSLA shares accumulated since 2012 in a IBKR cash account
2. could easily afford to lose it all
3. wanted to make a one-time bet that the stock will rise significantly in the coming years
4. but don't want to have to make frequent transactions

What would you do?

Asking for a friend. The friend hasn't taken the time to learn about the intricacies of LEAPS (or margin) yet, but is open to ideas (not financial advise, of course).

 

[bkp_duke]

If you

1. had ~20K of TSLA shares accumulated since 2012 in a IBKR cash account
2. could easily afford to lose it all
3. wanted to make a one-time bet that the stock will rise significantly in the coming years
4. but don't want to have to make frequent transactions

What would you do?

Asking for a friend. The friend hasn't taken the time to learn about the intricacies of LEAPS (or margin) yet, but is open to ideas (not financial advise, of course).

HODL and go on vacation. Check back every 2 years.

 

[JRP3]

I was still thinking pre-split share counts in the first tweet. Volume supports up to 10-15m shares IMO, with $2b-$3b in proceeds.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584617595478900736

 

[ZeApelido]

If you

1. had ~20K of TSLA shares accumulated since 2012 in a IBKR cash account
2. could easily afford to lose it all
3. wanted to make a one-time bet that the stock will rise significantly in the coming years
4. but don't want to have to make frequent transactions

What would you do?

Asking for a friend. The friend hasn't taken the time to learn about the intricacies of LEAPS (or margin) yet, but is open to ideas (not financial advise, of course).

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Who in their right mind would be selling 2025 leaps at these levels? Am I missing something?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[hobbes]

Considering the current EV subsidy in China is ending this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see very few cars exported this Q.

Judging after the pace the ships to Europe are leaving that is not true - seems to be a record, fourth ship loading in Shanghai this month and there is still a week left in October:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584157904562802691

 

[Skryll]

If you

1. had ~20K of TSLA shares accumulated since 2012 in a IBKR cash account
2. could easily afford to lose it all
3. wanted to make a one-time bet that the stock will rise significantly in the coming years
4. but don't want to have to make frequent transactions

What would you do?

Asking for a friend. The friend hasn't taken the time to learn about the intricacies of LEAPS (or margin) yet, but is open to ideas (not financial advise, of course).

Buy and hold. Add more with cash. Stay out of margin and clear off options. Live long and prosper

 

[Mengy]

Buy and hold. Add more with cash. Stay out of margin and clear off options. Live long and prosper

This is the Way.

 

[Usain]

I've been of the opinion that Elon is truly done selling and won't need more cash to close the deal. So IMO, he didn't sell today.

But I will also point out that every time I've seen someone here say it feels like Elon might be selling, it is indeed Elon selling.

 

[wipster]

211.25? Coulda been worse!

 

[thx1139]

Judging after the pace the ships to Europe are leaving that is not true - seems to be a record, fourth ship loading in Shanghai this month and there is still a week left in October:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584157904562802691

I dont understand the count. According to Tesla Carriers 7 have already left Shanghai and I dont believe that counts ships to Japan or Australia.

 

[KBF]

Unless Elon files some forms tonight that clarify this, MM will be at it tomorrow morning ... take advantage if it presents itself

IIRC he has 3 business days to file, correct? There was a lot of volume on Thursday and Friday mornings as well that technically could have been him, perhaps - and then we'd know tonight?

But you're right, even if it was just today, Musk's selling activities will become clear soon - and hopefully by Friday we can move on to other nonsense.

 

[hobbes]

Berlin ramp seems to be proceeding well judging from VIN-analysis (which can be misleading), also anectodally supported by lots of trailers waiting yesterday (Sunday) for Monday´s production:
View attachment 867053

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584550178358693888

View attachment 867049

In the five weeks from Sep 19, when @StatsTesla on Twitter made the last fit to today´s update above, estimated production rate increased by 900 cars per week. There are still almost 10 weeks (give or take a day but this is not exact science due to transport etc) left in the year. Extrapolating the rate linearly, we would end 2022 at 4700 per week, so the goal of 5000 weekly runrate seems doable. Take with a few grains of salt though, extrapolating estimates doesn´t make them more precise but we´re in the right ballpark here.

 

[hobbes]

I dont understand the count. According to Tesla Carriers 7 have already left Shanghai and I dont believe that counts ships to Japan or Australia.

Hm you´re right. Anyway, this refutes the hypothesis they are not exporting much this Q even more.

 

[Knightshade]

IIRC he has 3 business days to file, correct? There was a lot of volume on Thursday and Friday mornings as well that technically could have been him, perhaps - and then we'd know tonight?

Unless it was with a pre-filed auto-execute plan, no it could not. Teslas blackout period to sell shares extends to 2 days after earnings call.

 

[ZeApelido]

2018 me: In 4 years, you will post a tweet indicating the CEO of the company you put all your money into is not being investigated as a security risk by the government, and you just don't care either way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584640964609847296

 

[Nocturnal]

2018 me: In 4 years, you will post a tweet indicating the CEO of the company you put all your money into is not being investigated as a security risk by the government, and you just don't care either way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584640964609847296

It sounded ridiculous anyway. As if the US government is THAT incompetent. "Hey, who is this Elon Musk character we keep hearing about? Let's do some research on this mysterious nobody."

 

[WattsHappening]

It sounded ridiculous anyway. As if the US government is THAT incompetent. "Hey, who is this Elon Musk character we keep hearing about? Let's do some research on this mysterious nobody."

Well, when you put it that way, it makes it sound very plausible.

 

[printf42]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584539176997122048

Starship could have an orbital test soon but Elon is back in Bay Area.

How do you read this?

• Final FSD bash to make sure it ships before end of year?
• Optimus?
• Dojo?
• Kato road?
• Some other things we don’t know?

Or, is it simply stating whenever he is in Bay Area he would be couch surfing?