Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Go Rivian!

...Go Tesla! Go EVs!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Let the walkdown commence. Was capped hard around 190 and now underperforming it's beta. Wonder what they'll get it down to by end of trading today

 

[Todd Burch]

All,

I have been on these forums almost daily for 13 years. I know this post is not directly investment related, but felt compelled to post here anyway because I meta-know many of you. I hope the mods show mercy for this one post.

I’ve been absent for about a week because on Thanksgiving morning, my older son took his own life at the age of 12. It was a devastating shock to us all. None of us had any clue it was coming.

He will never again practice steering my Model S, or get his own Tesla one day.

He was once asked by a friend if he was going to work for Tesla. He jokingly replied “No, I’m gonna put them out of business!”

Purpose of this post: don’t fret the stock price. It had been bothering me lately, quite a bit, but recent events have put things into perspective.

Talk to your kids. Make sure everything’s ok. Tell them you love them every day. Nothing else really matters in the end.

Please don’t reply here, as I don’t want to clog the thread. A simple like or heart to the post will suffice.

Thanks for your mercy, mods.

 

[Mengy]

Man, I wish my TSLA was performing like today's XPEV action of up by 48%!

While +48% sounds great, that would still only be a share price of about $260 and a PE of around 70. Which still sounds very low to me.

 

[Nocturnal]

This is wrong. The safety of a car is important, just as that of a semi. When autonomous cars are safer than human drivers using ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) it would be a crime to prohibit full autonomy. And when that happens, Semi's will not be far behind. You may want to argue that trucks are driven by "professionals", that has some limited merit because, in the end, they are humans too with some of the same bad habits. And, when it is legal to have autonomous semis, the industry will immediately adopt them for the financial boost to the bottom line.

Making semi-trucks autonomous requires less reliance on solving as many edge cases as possible, because cars routinely operate in difficult environments that semi's never go, and cannot go, even with a human driver. This means when cars are autonomous, trucks will be right behind. I suppose the one sticking point could be the Teamsters, but only about 2% of all truck drivers are Teamsters so I don't expect that to have significant sway.

At first autonomous trucks will travel freeways on long-hauls, from designated point to designated point, at which time a local "pilot" (human truckdriver) will get in and complete the trip on local roads. Eventually, autonomy will take the trucks all the way to their destination, including backing them into difficult and congested loading docks more perfectly than skilled humans.

You have no way of knowing that.

Do you expect to see Robotaxis within the next 2 years? I don't. A Robotaxi that fails might kill a handful of people, a semi that fails can kill dozens. The public and regulators will insist upon seeing a lot of data with passenger vehicles before 100k pound vehicles are permitted to drive around.

Maybe its not 10+ years, but no way is it 5.

 

[dhanson865]

These functions could (and will) easily be shifted contractually to the receiving party. It is, frankly, anachronistic to have risk transfer occur based on the visual supervision of the driver of unloading of palletized, crated materials. I think we all instinctively understand that a driver standing by while goods are unloaded is not a reasonable deployment of resources. The cost involved in just that function could be shifted to the receiving party in exchange for reduction in the shipping cost to everyone's benefit. Sorry to say it, but that will not be a reason to have a driver if the technology can get to the point of intervention-free delivery.

Crated materials are a minority. Plenty of stuff is palletized sure, but crated? On a company owned semi (not a 3rd party freight carrier).

Next, Think of a train. They have a few people on the train no matter how many cars of cargo they have.

If you have a convoy you probably want a couple of people no matter how many semis are in the convoy (assuming there are 3+ semis, I'm saying one or more could be unattended knowing an attended semi is in the convoy with it).

If there is a mechanical failure you don't want an unattended cargo truck on the side of the road.

There are plenty of scenarios were a human on site can help out the convoy even if it's primarily driven by AI.

The alternative is to be doing what Waymo does and send recovery crews to the site when a car is stuck because the AI or equipment failed and that's a bad look.

Tesla wants to be the best and I'm saying 0 humans on the convoy isn't going to be a best practice for some time.

 

[lascavarian]

Reed Hastings of Netflix saying some very complimentary things about Elon.

 

[wipster]

Oh man, look at TSLA...!

 

[Mengy]

You have no way of knowing that.

Do you expect to see Robotaxis within the next 2 years? I don't. A Robotaxi that fails might kill a handful of people, a semi that fails can kill dozens. The public and regulators will insist upon seeing a lot of data with passenger vehicles before 100k pound vehicles are permitted to drive around.

Maybe its not 10+ years, but no way is it 5.

I do expect to see Tesla Robotaxi's in the next two years. At least in limited scope and locations, but possibly even open range RT's.

The progress of FSD right now is fast, it's rapidly reaching a point where it will be viable. Maybe not in all weather at the outset, but that's just a matter of the AI learning bad weather driving skills. My feeling is we are much closer to Tesla robotaxis in some form than most believe.

But, like your post above, this is just my opinion, none of us can predict the future.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gee TSLA capped at 190 and unable to get above it, even with Nasdaq continuing higher........goes and check maximum pain......yeah there ya go.

 

[wipster]

This is wrong. The safety of a car is important, just as that of a semi. When autonomous cars are safer than human drivers using ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) it would be a crime to prohibit full autonomy. And when that happens, Semi's will not be far behind. You may want to argue that trucks are driven by "professionals", that has some limited merit because, in the end, they are humans too with some of the same bad habits. And, when it is legal to have autonomous semis, the industry will immediately adopt them for the financial boost to the bottom line.

Making semi-trucks autonomous requires less reliance on solving as many edge cases as possible, because cars routinely operate in difficult environments that semi's never go, and cannot go, even with a human driver. This means when cars are autonomous, trucks will be right behind. I suppose the one sticking point could be the Teamsters, but only about 2% of all truck drivers are Teamsters so I don't expect that to have significant sway.

At first autonomous trucks will travel freeways on long-hauls, from designated point to designated point, at which time a local "pilot" (human truckdriver) will get in and complete the trip on local roads. Eventually, autonomy will take the trucks all the way to their destination, including backing them into difficult and congested loading docks more perfectly than skilled humans.

Just watch the movie "Logan" to see the future of trucking. Plus, it's a great movie!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Read Hastings - with link...

Elon Musk is the bravest, most creative person on the planet, says Netflix's Reed Hastings

Reed Hastings, Netflix co-CEO, meets with Andrew Ross Sorkin at The New York Times' DealBook Summit and offers his opinion on what Elon Musk is doing at Twitter.

www.cnbc.com

Brave man at a New York Times Rag & CNBS event.

 

[Nocturnal]

I do expect to see Tesla Robotaxi's in the next two years. At least in limited scope and locations, but possibly even open range RT's.

The progress of FSD right now is fast, it's rapidly reaching a point where it will be viable. Maybe not in all weather at the outset, but that's just a matter of the AI learning bad weather driving skills. My feeling is we are much closer to Tesla robotaxis in some form than most believe.

But, like your post above, this is just my opinion, none of us can predict the future.

I very much hope you quote me in 2 years and laugh at how wrong I was. I will laugh right along with you.

I do like the FSD progress I've seen, but it hasn't felt exponential yet. Definitely aware that what I see as a user of the system is very superficial though so maybe it has been exponential below the surface.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Gee TSLA capped at 190 and unable to get above it, even with Nasdaq continuing higher........goes and check maximum pain......yeah there ya go.

It just needed a little bit of your encouragement. Thanks!

 

[TrendTrader007]

i am truly heartbroken and extremely sad to hear about your loss. losing a child unexpectedly is one of the most unbearably painful tragedies. my heart goes out to you and your family. please accept my deepest condolences @Todd Burch

Mod: I think we all sympathize with Todd (having lost a child myself) but please limit responses to the substantive part of his post. --ggr

Tesla currently at $190 and finding support at some critical levels like lower bollinger on monthly chart and just above 50 week moving average
Tesla has a tendency to go up over next 2 to 3 months and hit upper monthly bollinger which currently is at $384.36
$384.36 divided by $190 is almost exactly 2X
coincidence? i don't think so

 

[TrendTrader007]

i am not here to promote Technical analysis or anything at all for that matter. many investors do not believe in TA and that is just fine by me. however, it so clear when study Tesla chart since june 2010 that there is clear method to Tesla's madness as stock and it follows clear patterns over long periods.
my guess is that certain large institutions who do believe in TA help make it happen.
closer you look at price action, more random it seems but over longer time frames much more methodical.
just an observation
by the way, very high probability that today was the turning point and today Wednesday, 11-30-22 may very well may have marked end of this 13 month long bear market
turn of months is highly significant. December likely to have major rally.
made second major fortune starting April 1, 2009 after losing most of net worth in 2008 bear market because recognized start of month April 2009 as highly bullish

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - today:

 

[ThisStockGood]

Elon just commented this epic clip from the archives

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598044609716056064

 

[ThisStockGood]

Are we witnessing a small squeeze rn..?

Edit: Or maybe rebalancing?

 

[wipster]

194.70! I'll sleep better tonight...