Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I’m of the opinion that Elon should Tweet, if true, that Tesla margins are not dropping with the price cuts, and that they are just wanting to move the extra production before end of year. The short sellers and FUD creators are materially hurting some of us, and they should be stopped.

TSLA moving to a -10X Beta is not good.

Haha, this has nothing to do with that. This is technical traders and hedgies working together to retest the YTD Low (bottoms are easy to pick, I've seen a hundred of them while I've been in TSLA):

Why do people constantly think that hedgies gaf about who says what? They're gonna do what they're going do, no matter what. Most don't even READ the news, only the charts.

Mark my words: Before the CPI print.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Utilization refers to the percent realized of the total production capacity of a facility (or facilities) while run rate for October and November is dependent upon execution. Two different things.

Which is why I noted “full capacity” run rate. You’re welcome to share what you think it is. Pretty clear that October was operating at full capacity (close enough for the difference to be immaterial to this point).

 

[BornToFly]

I'm of the belief that Tesla should keep financials limited to quarterly reports.

The words you wrote are those of someone who has been gambling, not investing for the future.

Correct, I did trust/gamble that Elon would keep us above the SP from two years ago

 

[juanmedina]

Tesla Denied Retrial Over Black Worker’s Racism Verdict

Tesla Inc. was denied new trial in a suit by a Black former contract worker who was awarded $137 million by a jury that found he faced racist abuse at the electric vehicle maker’s northern California factory.

www.bloomberg.com

Only $137M and he was a contractor

 

[bkp_duke]

Only $137M and he was a contractor

I can't read the article, paywalled, but the judge reduced it to $15M, and then the guy refused it, is what I'm gathering.

So what does Tesla have to pay out? 15M, or 137M?

 

[wipster]

Meh. Too easy for people to say the data is made up and it’s all just a lie. Tesla has been there, done that. They have a blog.

And honestly (that word is funny to me today) mankind has been lying ever since they could communicate with one another. Politely we called it storytelling, fairy tales, fiction. Can anything written or said nowadays be taken as truth? Even in the non-fiction section of the library, lies are written.

Nobody reads blogs (or at least I don't). Everybody sees eye-catching headlines, so why not use it to Tesla's benefit? And I get your point about nobody believing Tesla, so why not have some other well respected person post the articles? Need to be highly visible, provide irrefutable proof in the article, and easily reposted or forwarded. Maybe Tesla has been there done something similar in the past but this is now and we have another vehicle that can be used for free. Regardless of who's posting it, there are always going to be naysayers, but once these enough of these come out, people may start changing their minds. Worth a try IMHO. Fight the FUD with PIF (proven irrefutable Truth).

 

[wipster]

I can't read the article, paywalled, but the judge reduced it to $15M, and then the guy refused it, is what I'm gathering.

So what does Tesla have to pay out? 15M, or 137M?

Neither yet. The judge refused Tesla's request for a retrial, but granted the guy's request when he turned down the $15 million award. Trial is set for March 27th 2023.

Another great example of the headline not reflecting the truth, yet all you can read with a paywalled article. To see a non-paywalled version, check out The Mercury News... which uses the same headline.

Sigh...

Edit:
Instead of

Tesla denied retrial over Black Fremont factory worker’s racism verdict​

How about

Black Tesla Contractor Refuses $15 million Award Over Racism at Fremont ​

See how much a headline impacts your perception of the article?

 

[StealthP3D]

A very good example is Tesla China denying price cut rumors but then we eventually see price cuts. A lot of bulls question why they denied the price cuts in the first place. The point is there's a lot of moving parts when it comes demand and pricing so it's important to be nimble. There will be no end to FUD if Tesla starts providing daily updates.

I wish there were no price cuts but I'm hoping we can absorb any impact to margins. The only way to find out will be to wait for the quarterly earning reports. No amount of PR clarifications from Tesla will help in this regard.

Tesla can have no plans to cut prices in the morning, then look at data and issue a price cut by the afternoon of the same day. So, yeah, denying rumors of a price cut is not always wise, even when there are no plans to cut prices. Rumors of price cuts are manufactured out of thin air on a regular basis because such rumors can cause buyers to delay purchases and actually help increase the likelihood that there will be a price cut. Sometimes Tesla knows there will be a price cut but they don't want to announce it until the right moment. So, these rumors are nothing more than a desire to harm Tesla in some small way.

But it's misguided to overly focus on price cuts that Tesla regularly uses to manage demand. They even do that between different trim levels to fine-tune supply and demand. What investors should focus on are the overall trends of constantly increasing production and the trend of Tesla to make production more efficient as time goes on. These cost-lowering trends, combined with increasing utilization of two new factories, dwarf the price cuts and make people fretting over small price cuts look incredibly foolish and short-sighted.

In other words, gross profit margins will likely increase, above Tesla's current industry leading margins, to levels that are unthinkable to analysts who take the microscope to small price cuts simply because they are the most visible part of the equation. These short-sighted people would do well to focus on constant improvement in manufacturing efficiencies, volume efficiencies and the effect of higher volumes on total revenues. But I know this is asking a lot of investment professionals so I have not made any bets or gambled that they will "get it" until the results are plain to see.

 

[Krugerrand]

For some here, nothing is ever enough. I've been 100% or close to 100% invested in TSLA for over 4 years now, own 2 Teslas and have many more on order, spend time with my local Tesla club on various things including delivering cars to customers, own as much Tesla swag as possible, and have spent hundreds of hours debunking FUD and negative Tesla views but despite all of that anything less than "Everything is perfect and 5D chess and don't ask questions" means you get called stupid and derided as weak or not supporting the company.

It's quite something.

You’re absolutely right, nothing is ever enough. Conversely, I’ve been over 100% invested for over a decade, yadda, yadda, yadda, and because I won’t lower myself to criticism that goes far beyond anything that can be defined as constructive, I won’t pile on with the negativity and pat backs, I won’t comment on aspects of someone’s personal life not directly related to company performance, and I won’t back off from calling out bad
behavior or suffer fools, I’m a ‘fanboi’, a cult member, and I’m worshiping at the alter of a deity of my own making etc.

Here’s the difference, though, I‘m not offended or hurt or give a hoot what bots or real people on the Internet think.

I know you’re unhappy about the other thing. I understand why you’re unhappy. I understand your current position about the board and what they should do. At least as best as I can by your posts and ratings on the topics. I just happen to disagree with your position/view for a multitude of reasons.

Neither of us will be swayed by the other’s arguments because we are different people, with different backgrounds, different upbringing, different beliefs, different paths, different end goals. But we most certainly agree, nothing is ever enough. Hear! Hear!

 

[StealthP3D]

Nobody reads blogs (or at least I don't). Everybody sees eye-catching headlines, so why not use it to Tesla's benefit? And I get your point about nobody believing Tesla, so why not have some other well respected person post the articles? Need to be highly visible, provide irrefutable proof in the article, and easily reposted or forwarded. Maybe Tesla has been there done something similar in the past but this is now and we have another vehicle that can be used for free. Regardless of who's posting it, there are always going to be naysayers, but once these enough of these come out, people may start changing their minds. Worth a try IMHO. Fight the FUD with PIF (proven irrefutable Truth).

Tesla provides that every quarter with each new earnings release. Actual results. Even then some people chose to believe they fabricated the numbers and dumped the cars in the ocean. Not my problem and not Tesla's problem. They can lead the idiots to the water but they can't make them drink it. Why are you so adamant that they do more than they already do?

 

[Artful Dodger]

and have spent hundreds of hours debunking FUD and negative Tesla views but despite all of that anything less than "Everything is perfect and 5D chess and don't ask questions" means you get called stupid and derided as weak or not supporting the company.

Explain how you went from asking "is the board really acting in our interests?" earlier to "anything less than perfect is weak" now? The two are not event remotely equivalent.

You repeat an unanswerable question (obviously planted by TSLAQ), then cry foul when the answers aren't to your liking?

Again, I point EVERYONE here to the steady advice given by @StealthP3D over these past several years: DON'T invest money you may need in cash in the next year or two.

We've surpassed 13 mths already in this downturn, and we're subject to macros and predatory short-sellers. And the I.R. Act benefits aren't in the bag yet for January. Who knows what lumps of coal that a hostile Administration could slip into our Christmas stockings?

TSLA is an investment, not an annuity. Don't expect or depend upon regular income from it. The failure to plan is NOT on Tesla's side. Conduct yourselves accordingly.

 

[wipster]

Tesla provides that every quarter with each new earnings release. Actual results. Even then some people chose to believe they fabricated the numbers and dumped the cars in the ocean. Not my problem and not Tesla's problem. They can lead the idiots to the water but they can't make them drink it. Why are you so adamant that they do more than they already do?

To fight the FUD without directly responding to it. Time for some positive HEADLINES for once.

 

[aGreenGuy]

Pro Tip: Share buybacks won't matter to the SP when Market Makers can poof an infinite number of shares into existance and never deliver them.

Please excuse my financial illiteracy, but how does this work? Does it mean that someone buys stock and never actually get them? (do they get their money back with a letter saying the stocks could not be delivered?)

 

[jkirkwood001]

Was doing a last minute, 6,000-mile road trip with my son*, and stopped at a Supercharger in (redacted to preserve tech's anonymity). Spoke to a 9-year veteran Tesla field engineer, who'd driven from 3 States away to one of the 20 States he covers, troubleshooting in 'the enclosure' ("that's what Elon calls 'em" he said).

Nuggets I've not seen mentioned anywhere:

• His Model Y was test driving Cybertruck batteries. "4680s?" I asked. He said, "I can't say. But when they finally release it, all I can say is you will be blown away." He said this was his 6th field Tesla. They take them back after 60-70,000 miles.
• I posted in the Cybertruck forum about a charger upgrade going in at Barstow, CA that looked to be for Cybertrucks. Yes and no. The engineer looked at my photo and said "that's v.3 for pull-thrus. Cybertrucks will charge at v.4 Superchargers only. You'll be able to charge them at v.3, but they'll charge 5-6 times slower, so that's why you'll only want to charge at v.4s."
• I asked if v.4 would be compatible with Semi, but I assumed they'd need their own dedicated (and separate / private) chargers. He said "well, that's it. I can't tell you. What I can say is, if you own a Cybertruck [I have a reservation duh], you'll be blown away when they release it." The implication is that Cybertruck and semi will share next gen charging architecture.
• He was looking at an interface on his laptop with detailed, tabulated data and said (he seemed happy to share!) "Hmm. Dojo's telling me it thinks this unit 8 is not active, but it looks available to me..." They're also using Dojo to monitor and manage the Supercharger network??
• He's worked for Elon for 9 years. He's one of the few qualified, graduate engineers they can find who likes being on the road a lot. He's stuck with Tesla through it almost dying 4 times over. He said "the thing about this Twitter business, everything he [Elon] does, he does with a purpose." The implication is, don't underestimate Elon's intention, even if we don't understand it yet.

Photo blurred to protect the engineer:

* My son, amongst other composition contracts, does internet meme videos on YouTube. He got asked to perform one of his that has a million views live at the Futurama panel of LA Comic Con. Knowing how much I like road trips, he wondered if I was up for a road trip. "Drive 10,000 KMs to minimize GHGs from flying so you can perform for 7 minutes with LA Opera peeps accompanying you?? I'm in!"

 

[jerry33]

Please excuse my financial illiteracy, but how does this work? Does it mean that someone buys stock and never actually get them? (do they get their money back with a letter saying the stocks could not be delivered?)

Basically virtual shares are issued by a Market Maker. The issuer has thirteen days to cover, but thirteen days is an infinity in today's computerized stock market. They can pass the virtual shares to another company (e.g. subsidiary) and in practice never have to account for them--except in the case where there is either overwhelming purchasing or there is something like a big stock dividend where every share has to be accounted for on a certain day. Five minutes would be a more reasonable timeline to have to deliver the virtual shares--not that this will ever happen because the SEC is in cahoots with the Market Makers.

 

[Knightshade]

[*]He was looking at an interface on his laptop with detailed, tabulated data and said (he seemed happy to share!) "Hmm. Dojo's telling me it thinks this unit 8 is not active, but it looks available to me..." They're also using Dojo to monitor and manage the Supercharger network??

Dojo isn't expected to have its first cluster running until Q1 2023, per Tesla themselves just like 5 weeks ago, and it's utterly not designed for the task you claim he's saying it's being used for now...so I'd take everything else he told you with a massive mountain of salt.

 

[StealthP3D]

Many here have options that are expiring soon. Or, even worse, wives looking over their shoulders. Telling 'em to try and relax only makes it worse.

Right. But who you married or how much you gambled on options expiring soon is not Tesla's problem. My wife trusts me to manage all of our money. Those who have a different dynamic need to take that into account before they make decisions affecting both partners, not complain that Tesla is not doing enough and it's causing marital discord.

Why do people always want to blame someone else for their poor decisions?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Please excuse my financial illiteracy, but how does this work? Does it mean that someone buys stock and never actually get them? (do they get their money back with a letter saying the stocks could not be delivered?)

Yeah, it's not "financial illiteracy", it's "market machinations" illiteracy. Like, most people assume they own their shares: they do not (your Broker does).

My (soon to be former) broker holds a pool of about 2.5M shares of TSLA (last time I looked). They are the registered owners of those shares, while their retail customers are what's called "beneficial holders".

Meaning they tell you they have your shares, but in reality if everyone tried to sell then they'd find out the "pool isn't deep enough" to cover all their obligations.

And the reason they can do this? Lack of oversight by the SEC, and the Options Market Makers exemption. This means they can keep selling shares to delta hedge their options exposure, even when they don't own enough shares to sell.

And nobody minds, or even talks about it. Go figure. But they are quick to blame Tesla's BoD.

 

[Zero CO2]

To fight the FUD without directly responding to it. Time for some positive HEADLINES for once.

there are many positive headlines in the past few weeks alone

• 100K in Shanghai
• Semi event
• FSD Beta wider release
• Franz interview "new vehicle"
• European recent delivery numbers
• Thailand Sales begin
• etc

we just tend to amplify the negatives and MSM buries the good news for Tesla

one more point to add here " successful investing" requires you to see through the FUD... the FUD will always be there I spent over ten years of trying to understand FUD related to AAPL ... years ago as many of you may recall it was quite prevalent ...but similar to Tesla today Apple had great/highly profitable products that everyone loved... the weighing machine proved out over time.. i believe Tesla will be a similar story and eventually overtake Apple ... patience will be rewarded

 

[StealthP3D]

Correct, I did trust/gamble that Elon would keep us above the SP from two years ago

Elon doesn't control the share price, that's the job of the market. And any investor who is not new to this game knows the market is unpredictable, even if you stick to the boring, stable companies with low growth rates. Playing options just multiples the unpredictability.

If you wanna run with the big dogs, you gotta be comfortable peeing in the tall grass.