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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I think the only way it would be plausible is if Tesla seriously overestimated Demand in China

Yeah, that's not what happened. Go back to the original rumor from Rob Maurer. The jist of that was Tesla was prepared to go into a closed loop production system as soon as Dec 11 IF REQUIRED by Shanghai city health measures.

Almost nobody talked about this here in the Investor's Forum, but Wu Wa posted a video of what he referred to (almost certainly incorrectly) as a "temporary hospital" built on the plot of land immediately to the South of Giga Shanghai:

The land south of the Tesla factory is covered with buildings\Giga shanghai\4K \493 | Dec 3, 2022


This is no hospital. It's obviously the exact same type of temporary worker accommodation trailers that Tesla Shanghai has already installed on the SE corner of the Model Y plant for over a year now. My quick eyeball estimate was room for ~6,000 workers. And 2x that if one shift is on, while the other is off. 12K production workers is more than enough to run the factory.

Remember, all this was prepared well BEFORE the central gov't in Beijing announced its decision to ease it's public health 'zero' policy. Therefore Tesla might not even choose to activate it's (very prudent) "closed loop" production strategy. The decrease in production mentioned in the original rumor covered by Rob Maurer is a simple artifact of decreasing the length of shifts to 9 hrs x 2 / day during that period. IT'S NOT ABOUT DEMAND.

But it's highly speculative to assume that 'closed loop' will even happen now. Further, even if it does, we know from other sources that Giga Shanghai has approx 70 days of parts inventory ready at hand in local warehouse to support ongoing production.

Not a whisper of this in the main stream media. Understandable. Rob Maurer? Not so much.
 
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This. As I recall what happened is that the Model Y far exceeded internal company projections. Since Tesla was growing 70% YoY without Semi, Tesla made the perfectly correct decision to catch up to Model Y demand both on the battery cell and factory production side of the equation. 2022 was the year they finally did so.

Btw Tesla was also impacted by supply chain issues and Covid lockdowns, etc. It’s just in Tesla’s case, it meant that instead of 70% YoY growth, they only managed a hair less than 50% growth for a couple of years and much whining in the press.

2023 is going to be epic.
Dear God no. If it’s that epic will be under 50 bucks at this time next year. 😜. /s (at least I hope it’s sarcasm).
 
while it is not at all pleasant to live through 13 months of downturn in Tesla stock and everything looks so dark and gloomy to many tesla longs, i am looking at Tesla similar to apple in 2008. in 2008 -2009 period apple fell from high of $202.96 on 12-27-2007 to a low of $78.20 on 1-20-2009 which is 61.4% over period of approx 13 months. subsequently it retested that low in early March 2009, so it took apple a total of 15 to 16 months so finally get out of that bear. subsequently it went up 448% by April 2010 and overall 65X over next 13 years for ARR 38%
Tesla has fallen 60% over 13 months, possibly another few months of pain and in my humble opinion tesla is no less of a company than apple was in 2008 so i expect similar or better recovery
i may be wrong but this is how i am dealing with this drawdown
 
This evening while walking on indoor track at our local gym my wife implored me to consider other investment options than Tesla stock. She was truly petrified and anxious about all the FUD associated with Tesla and current CEO. We currently own 5 Teslas including 2 Plaid. She loves driving her Blue Plaid S. She is CEO/founder of her own company with approximately 100 employees so she is not scared easily. For her to counsel me for over 30 minutes to switch from TSLA to another company is highly unusual and reflects the intensity of FUD. I’m not 100% certain but seems to me we are pretty close to bottom from contrarian standpoint.
I am of course not remotely interested in another company than Tesla. I explained to her in excess of 50% Revenue and EPS growth for years to come. Selling Tesla at or near bottom is one of the worst investment mistakes in my opinion. She then also noted that she now seldom drives without seeing several Teslas on road.
If you listen to Peter Lynch, you should never ever sell stock of a company whose products you use daily and literally love. Selling Tesla in 2022 could prove to be a genius move for those who believe that Tesla is going to go much lower. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing that will ever make me get out of my tesla position will be fundamentals changing for worse permanently. Right or wrong, I truly believe that selling Tesla stock right now is like selling Apple stock in December 2008.

Here’s a picture of the Tesla she loves to drive daily.
Agree with you that Fundamentals are the basis for investing in Tesla.

Almost impossible to know in advance when fundamentals are changing until earnings reports are delivered, at which point everyone knows at the same time.

I just had a fantastic long weekend away on a beautiful winery with 8 friends, which was perfect apart from the 5 mins where the topic of EVs, Tesla & Musk came up. I stayed silent to try and get a good read on their unguarded thoughts (only one person there knows I have a sizable TSLA investment). Just one was talking about wanting a Tesla, and they said so with the proviso that “they can separate the company from the man (Musk)”. Unanimous agreement Musk was a Buffoon. A sad few still think hybrids are superior to EVs. I actually facepalmed on that.
 
In the hypothetical event the Tesla production reduction in China for December is true, there are possible supply related reasons why it would be the case. For example a supplier may be having trouble with production, and/or Tesla itself may be having temporary labour shortages due to covid isolation requirements.

Overall China exports (economy wide) fell 8.7% in November, due in part to covid lockdowns impacted production capacity.

View attachment 882580
It seems every quarter we are having Shanghai lock down production interruption concerns FUD. This will serve WS as much as they want.
This evening while walking on indoor track at our local gym my wife implored me to consider other investment options than Tesla stock. She was truly petrified and anxious about all the FUD associated with Tesla and current CEO. We currently own 5 Teslas including 2 Plaid. She loves driving her Blue Plaid S. She is CEO/founder of her own company with approximately 100 employees so she is not scared easily. For her to counsel me for over 30 minutes to switch from TSLA to another company is highly unusual and reflects the intensity of FUD. I’m not 100% certain but seems to me we are pretty close to bottom from contrarian standpoint.
I am of course not remotely interested in another company than Tesla. I explained to her in excess of 50% Revenue and EPS growth for years to come. Selling Tesla at or near bottom is one of the worst investment mistakes in my opinion. She then also noted that she now seldom drives without seeing several Teslas on road.
If you listen to Peter Lynch, you should never ever sell stock of a company whose products you use daily and literally love. Selling Tesla in 2022 could prove to be a genius move for those who believe that Tesla is going to go much lower. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing that will ever make me get out of my tesla position will be fundamentals changing for worse permanently. Right or wrong, I truly believe that selling Tesla stock right now is like selling Apple stock in December 2008.

Here’s a picture of the Tesla she loves to drive daily.
Yes, FUD is at an ATH. Everybody I know is telling me they would be stressed out to own TSLA. I systematically tell them to find me a mega cap profitable company with over 50% YoY profits growth and I will happily invest in them!

Someone found me a profitable private company with 100% growth so I bought 2% of the company 6 months ago.

I am a man of my word!
 
Agree with you that Fundamentals are the basis for investing in Tesla.

Almost impossible to know in advance when fundamentals are changing until earnings reports are delivered, at which point everyone knows at the same time.

I just had a fantastic long weekend away on a beautiful winery with 8 friends, which was perfect apart from the 5 mins where the topic of EVs, Tesla & Musk came up. I stayed silent to try and get a good read on their unguarded thoughts (only one person there knows I have a sizable TSLA investment). Just one was talking about wanting a Tesla, and they said so with the proviso that “they can separate the company from the man (Musk)”. Unanimous agreement Musk was a Buffoon. A sad few still think hybrids are superior to EVs. I actually facepalmed on that.
On the positive side, your experience clearly shows how much ignorance still exists regarding EVs, and thus how much remaining market share there is that will eventually come around to understanding their superiority.
 
Sorry if this had been posted here.


(Note to Mod: This is about battery, but battery is critical part of an EV, therefore critical to Tesla&TSLA, therefore pretty pretty relevant to investing in Tesla)
A quick read of the paper abstract shows this is very early stage research that might help with lithium metal electrodes. Maybe. The paper does NOT talk about creating a lithium metal electrode battery, it is earlier stage than that.

My suggestion is to keep battery ”discoveries” in the relevant technical thread.

 
The Shanghai demand issues and 20% production cut for December reminds me of a Panchatantra story.
Once a farmer (Tesla investor ) bought a sheep ( TSLA) at local farmer’s market from his dear friend ( Elon)
He was hoping to HODL it and see it grow and help him grow his livestock.

On his way home , a stranger crosses his path (an unnamed source) and asks him why he bought a donkey( production cut)
Farmer corrects him and moves on.

He then comes across an acquaintance ( Boy dislike) who professes his knowledge of animals and his friendship to the farmer while commenting about the donkey he is taking home.
Farmer ( HODLer) is perturbed, tries correcting him but this acquaintance rattles of his guesses and beliefs and pass them off as facts .
Farmer nevertheless moves on

He then comes across his friendly neighbor who he trusts ( Rob Maurer) who also congratulates him
On his new donkey

farmer is now really worried .
May be he made a mistake and bought a donkey and his friend duped him .
He leaves the sheep and goes home .

Mods- Pl delete this .I apologize in advance for cluttering.
 
it looks like a few RSU D and option acquisitions... anyone see an issue here, is it simply end of year tax adjustments or is there something about these transactions that are important?
Quoting from the first document:

[footnote] 2. PURSUANT TO THE ISSUER'S EQUITY PLAN AND POLICIES, THESE SHARES OF COMMON STOCK WERE AUTOMATICALLY WITHHELD AND SOLD BY THE ISSUER TO SATISFY THE REPORTING PERSON'S TAX WITHHOLDING OBLIGATIONS RELATED TO THE VESTING OF RESTRICTED STOCK UNITS REPORTED HEREIN.