Option 1: 2023 is the first approved model year (including localization and homologation)All good, but why not in Dec
Option 2: Tesla needs to get their ships together
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Option 2: Tesla needs to get their ships together
Because they are shutting down production in December, doesn't anyone pay attention!?All good, but why not in Dec
Granted, we don't know the price/margins of the Semi, but it's probably safe to say that the profits from 13 Model 3/Y sales are higher than from 1 Semi. That allows for quicker build out of manufacturing capacity. That accelerates the mission.
Rumors are deliveries come with the frunk filled with green curry. Unbeatable option.
Not quite...production was slashed 20% in December and full production will resume in JanuaryBecause they are shutting down production in December, doesn't anyone pay attention!?
In all seriousness though, the main reason I cannot even remotely fathom Shanghai production rate being pulled back for Dec is there's still plenty of demand.....Europe, Japan, and especially Australia, where wait times are still late Q1/early Q2 and that was before the new EV incentives just got approved over there.Not quite...production was slashed 20% in December and full production will resume in January
I'll say this.....if the production reduction ends up being true and there are zero exports for Dec.......Tesla's gotta fire whoever is in charge of Shanghai's logistics. Because there is zero logic to reducing output when there are plenty of orders waiting to be filled by exports.
They've had plenty of time to get ships lined up for Dec to exports. It's a bit puzzling that we haven't seen or heard of any export ships so far in Dec. I was personally expecting them to export around 20-30k for Dec, possibly more. But so far, no ships
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I thought about these messages, they are logical and certainly we don't know what's going on in other people's lives, but.... I struggle with this passive, empathetic, give everyone the benefit of the doubt approach when I'm on the freeway and some idiot comes barreling from behind at irresponsible speeds zigzaging through traffic....then 5 minutes later, again new idiot....10 minutes later, 3rd idiot, etc. I'd be willing to try to turn the other cheak infrequently, because that fits the narrative being suggested here, but it happens too much for me to offer a mental pass for special circumstances for all of them. Similarly to theft. Sure, there are people who steal to ensure that they can eat tonight, but when I see criminals stealing Louis Vuitton purses in an organized fashion and of massive quantities, I tend to not assume they have a "good" reason. It's always the bad actors that seem to ruin it for everyone.
SP action sucked today, so this OT reply seemed minor.
It’s amazing to see how far ahead Tesla is in being able to build and sell* EVs.
No. 2, the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is a joke (death trap). For these lists they should set an entry barrier with a sales price of at least $7,500 or $10,000. They don’t include electric scooters either, do they?
BYD is the only one that is somewhat keeping up. Good for them, and Warren Buffett I guess.
VW, Ford, Stellantis, is this the best you can do? Wasn’t VW supposed to have overtaken Tesla as EV leader by now?
And what’s GM up to, Mary “leading” Barra?
* In my country we are being bombarded with commercials and ads (tv, radio, newspapers, online) for the Ford Mach-E, Skoda Enyaq, KIA EV6, Peugeot e-208 and Polestar 2. This has been going on for months. That’s a waste of money unless your cars don’t sell themselves.
Yea …. He is testing 4690 (sssshhhh…)His Model Y was test driving Cybertruck batteries. "4680s?" I asked. He said, "I can't say. But when they finally release it, all I can say is you will be blown away." He said this was his 6th field Tesla. They take them back after 60-70,000 miles.
Photo blurred to protect the engineer:
- I posted in the Cybertruck forum about a charger upgrade going in at Barstow, CA that looked to be for Cybertrucks. Yes and no. The engineer looked at my photo and said "that's v.3 for pull-thrus. Cybertrucks will charge at v.4 Superchargers only. You'll be able to charge them at v.3, but they'll charge 5-6 times slower, so that's why you'll only want to charge at v.4s."
- I asked if v.4 would be compatible with Semi, but I assumed they'd need their own dedicated (and separate / private) chargers. He said "well, that's it. I can't tell you. What I can say is, if you own a Cybertruck [I have a reservation duh], you'll be blown away when they release it." The implication is that Cybertruck and semi will share next gen charging architecture.
- He was looking at an interface on his laptop with detailed, tabulated data and said (he seemed happy to share!) "Hmm. Dojo's telling me it thinks this unit 8 is not active, but it looks available to me..." They're also using Dojo to monitor and manage the Supercharger network??
- He's worked for Elon for 9 years. He's one of the few qualified, graduate engineers they can find who likes being on the road a lot. He's stuck with Tesla through it almost dying 4 times over. He said "the thing about this Twitter business, everything he [Elon] does, he does with a purpose." The implication is, don't underestimate Elon's intention, even if we don't understand it yet.
View attachment 882474
* My son, amongst other composition contracts, does internet meme videos on YouTube. He got asked to perform one of his that has a million views live at the Futurama panel of LA Comic Con. Knowing how much I like road trips, he wondered if I was up for a road trip. "Drive 10,000 KMs to minimize GHGs from flying so you can perform for 7 minutes with LA Opera peeps accompanying you?? I'm in!"
I think the only way it would be plausible is if Tesla seriously overestimated Demand in China and found themselves with not enough buyers and it too late to book ships in Q4 (I imagine it's not as simple as booking an Uber for example). But this would feel like really poor planning by Tesla. It seems like it would be in their interest to play it safe and "overbook" exports in December, leaving a small bit of backlog for China in Q1 and send a bit more to Europe or Australia/NZ where backlogs are longer and the margin should overall be better *and* helps further unwind the wave as they have told us is now the plan.In all seriousness though, the main reason I cannot even remotely fathom Shanghai production rate being pulled back for Dec is there's still plenty of demand.....Europe, Japan, and especially Australia, where wait times are still late Q1/early Q2 and that was before the new EV incentives just got approved over there.
I'll say this.....if the production reduction ends up being true and there are zero exports for Dec.......Tesla's gotta fire whoever is in charge of Shanghai's logistics. Because there is zero logic to reducing output when there are plenty of orders waiting to be filled by exports.
They've had plenty of time to get ships lined up for Dec to exports. It's a bit puzzling that we haven't seen or heard of any export ships so far in Dec. I was personally expecting them to export around 20-30k for Dec, possibly more. But so far, no ships
I personally suspect they were caught a bit off guard in Q3, hence the poor messaging and sudden surprise wave unwinding, but to think they would make the same mistake twice is just hard to believe.
I try to think of things in probabilities, and while I do believe it possible Tesla has mucked this up, I just think the probability they have is quite low.
One thing I was just looking at was total Model Y sales world wide.
Q1 160,333
Q2 145,370(Booooooo HISSSsss)
Q3 224,586
Q4 ???,???
530,000 Model Y vehicles without Q4
So let’s just say BS base case Tesla delivers…..250,000 in Q4
That would be 780,000 vehicles World wide.
“Indeed, looking at the updated ranking for 2022, the best-selling car in the World is the same of most recent years and is the Toyota Corollawith 840K sold (-5.6%) and a solid advantage over all the followers.”
So if Q2 didn’t totally suck, or if Q4 is amazing, probably best selling vehicle in any class this year. Definitely the next.
What are some of the folks here’s estimates for Q4 world wide Model Y sales?
Q1 160,333
Q2 145,370(Booooooo HISSSsss)
Q3 224,586
Q4 ???,???
530,000 Model Y vehicles without Q4
So let’s just say BS base case Tesla delivers…..250,000 in Q4
That would be 780,000 vehicles World wide.
“Indeed, looking at the updated ranking for 2022, the best-selling car in the World is the same of most recent years and is the Toyota Corollawith 840K sold (-5.6%) and a solid advantage over all the followers.”
So if Q2 didn’t totally suck, or if Q4 is amazing, probably best selling vehicle in any class this year. Definitely the next.
What are some of the folks here’s estimates for Q4 world wide Model Y sales?
Ericna
Member
Awesome info, Thanks!!!Was doing a last minute, 6,000-mile road trip with my son*, and stopped at a Supercharger in (redacted to preserve tech's anonymity). Spoke to a 9-year veteran Tesla field engineer, who'd driven from 3 States away to one of the 20 States he covers, troubleshooting in 'the enclosure' ("that's what Elon calls 'em" he said).
Nuggets I've not seen mentioned anywhere:
Photo blurred to protect the engineer:
- His Model Y was test driving Cybertruck batteries. "4680s?" I asked. He said, "I can't say. But when they finally release it, all I can say is you will be blown away." He said this was his 6th field Tesla. They take them back after 60-70,000 miles.
- I posted in the Cybertruck forum about a charger upgrade going in at Barstow, CA that looked to be for Cybertrucks. Yes and no. The engineer looked at my photo and said "that's v.3 for pull-thrus. Cybertrucks will charge at v.4 Superchargers only. You'll be able to charge them at v.3, but they'll charge 5-6 times slower, so that's why you'll only want to charge at v.4s."
- I asked if v.4 would be compatible with Semi, but I assumed they'd need their own dedicated (and separate / private) chargers. He said "well, that's it. I can't tell you. What I can say is, if you own a Cybertruck [I have a reservation duh], you'll be blown away when they release it." The implication is that Cybertruck and semi will share next gen charging architecture.
- He was looking at an interface on his laptop with detailed, tabulated data and said (he seemed happy to share!) "Hmm. Dojo's telling me it thinks this unit 8 is not active, but it looks available to me..." They're also using Dojo to monitor and manage the Supercharger network??
- He's worked for Elon for 9 years. He's one of the few qualified, graduate engineers they can find who likes being on the road a lot. He's stuck with Tesla through it almost dying 4 times over. He said "the thing about this Twitter business, everything he [Elon] does, he does with a purpose." The implication is, don't underestimate Elon's intention, even if we don't understand it yet.
View attachment 882474
* My son, amongst other composition contracts, does internet meme videos on YouTube. He got asked to perform one of his that has a million views live at the Futurama panel of LA Comic Con. Knowing how much I like road trips, he wondered if I was up for a road trip. "Drive 10,000 KMs to minimize GHGs from flying so you can perform for 7 minutes with LA Opera peeps accompanying you?? I'm in!"
Things change as volume increases. Easy to plan then but hard to manage.
I think the plan was to unload everything to local markets in China in December. They could still do it. Need a price cut? Well then cut it. Reports are this is already working to clear inventory in 24 hours.
I would rather they overproduce and hurt 4Q numbers than shift the factory down to appease WS, even if my trading account is officially buried at that point (close to it). This is going to be a positive record quarter and having inventory to move in 1Q is not a bad thing. Get those electric cars produced and on the road ASAP and don't worry about some quarterly hiccups. Order up the ROROs from now for a record January.
Q3 could have been a situation where dynamics changed on them in terms of China demand and they decided pivot....BUT....The production numbers though, as some pointed out here, weren't as high as some of us were expecting. And so the cars in transit number wasn't entirely from Shanghai Sept exports. Part of the large increase in in-transit was because Berlin/Austin were ramping. Anytime a factory is ramping, especially at the end of a quarter, it will lead to more cars in transit since they can't get delivered.
So Q3 was likely somewhere in the middle in terms of Tesla pivoting at the end of the quarter.
In Q3 the 1st ship from China for Q4 didnt arrive in China until the 9th of December. Any of the ships that delivered cars to Europe or other locals the last couple weeks could very well be on way back to Shanghai for another load.
To me the biggest concern if the production slow down is indeed true is that then Tesla doesnt believe they sell everything they make. If they believe that every car will sell then what is the big deal if they produce them and they have to wait a few weeks before they get shipped because of no boats ready yet or no car carriers to distribute across the country.
And what is the profit margin (net revenue) on each Corolla?
$Sixty-Nine dollars and forty-two centsAnd what is the profit margin (net revenue) on each Corolla?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Oh, you've seen me mention this one often. That Elon acts with purpose, even when Tweeting. He's trying to nudge the needle in the right direction, even when we don't like it or understand what he's really doing. As discussed earlier today, is that erratic, speeding Tesla an over-privileged jerk or is the driver rushing a dying faithful companion to get desperately needed medical help? The planet is dying a thousand deaths and needs immediate help.
We can't generally see the method of the madness behind Elon's communication, and not every Tweet is sent with perfect 20/20 hindsight, but you can rest assured that the entire body of Tweets is grinding the mission forward in ways that most people cannot see. Many of Elon's Tweets that appear counter-productive are designed to help the mission in ways not easily understood. Given that change of this magnitude offends many, it's an especially difficult, almost intractable task. People should be glad someone is tackling it even if it's in ways they cannot often understand.
But whenever it's suggested that Elon knows a thing or two, there are usually a handful of TSLAQ-type representatives ready to jump in and laugh at the idea of 3-D chess and tell us that Elon doesn't have a clue. They prefer to throw shells from the peanut gallery and smirk at the idea that a controversial statement could, in any way, move the mission forward. They appear to believe that change happens from being polite and nice, never doing anything controversial for fear of offending anyone. By this measure, Elon would never say anything. But that is not how real change happens. Real change is messy and is about to get even messier, so cue Randy Bachman because you ain't seen nothing yet!
Elon has already warned us that max-FUD is still to come. This rocket called Tesla broke the sound barrier as 2019 turned into 2020, but max-Q is still ahead of us. Things are about to be blown wide open. The ship needs to be strong enough to survive all of the forces of max-Q. Those who think change should be a polite and unoffensive consensus-building exercise in restraint, avoiding conflict as much as possible, should exit now. That's not how real change actually happens. It's a messy affair by nature. Elon is not a naive person and I lose respect for anyone who treats him as such.
This is great, but wrong thread...
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