Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

Most of the Investor Forum has no idea what is happening to TSLA because talking about the reason will get you banned. Just WOW.

 

[Mengy]

No. The board will not step in. They have made this clear. The stock is probably headed for a double digit price and neither the CEO or the board gives a crap.

TSLA falling to double digits would require the current PE to fall under 25. I think the $140-$150 range might be in play right now, but I don't see us falling to double digits, especially after Q4 posts. THAT would be an incredibly good buying opportunity, one many investors currently sitting on the sidelines would not be willing to pass up I'd wager.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Sorry but I just don't buy that. If we can agree that a huge Q4 beat means 450k or above that, then you're looking at earnings that will put TSLA's Forward PE in the realm of low 20's, possibly the high teens. I would bet money that Buffet (if he hasn't been already) would be buying in big time at that valuation.

Although I could never speak for Buffet, it is not his style to get into companies run by people (person) who is a wildcard. It’s not all about valuation, corporate governance and stable leadership is important … it could be argued, tesla has neither.

Pains me to say as a long but I’m trying to be objective given the recent actions by Elon and inaction by the board.

 

[betstarship]

If Elon didn’t buy Twitter there’d be another overhang people would invent because there’s such a need for “narrative” as a way to derive logic from the markets.

I’m reality we all have little clue into what drives price on a daily basis. The most accurate, tangible traceability that exists is the options market.

Falling for narrative is falling for what market manipulators want. It’s same as watching cnbc headlines as a way to understand what index price action is doing for any given day.

I dunno, it's kinda wild just how much Elon Musk is now in almost every home conversation in the US and, probably, the planet at this point...much like Trump was. There's inherent value in reachability that Tesla hasn't offered and I thought would. To me, this seems like a set up for a great 2023 and beyond regardless of current share price. I'd take 1 year of pain with 10 years of amazing.

In every simplified sales process, it boils down to the following:

1. First they know about your product/service
2. Second they like your product/service
3. Third they prefer your product/service
4. Fourth they buy your product/service

 

[betstarship]

Q - I'd add that the inherent societal value of Tesla, and subsequently TSLA, is that it averts or spearheads the successful outcomes of averting climate change. Is it more certain or uncertain that we're going to reach there right now?

 

[Unpilot]

Me looking for my chairs.

 

[tslalala]

No. The board will not step in. They have made this clear. The stock is probably headed for a double digit price and neither the CEO or the board gives a crap. It’s a great company with lots of potential future, but the CEO is the new extreme right wing poster boy and investors don’t want to be associated with that. We hear it everyday from everybody we know, and it’s on headlines all over the place.

I’m sure there is a bounce coming because at some point the deal is too good to pass up. But as long as senior management stays focused on politics and shock headlines it will not be the up and coming shiny star it was.

Jmho.

I agree with most of what you shared. To be clear, Elon is NOT the "new extreme right wing poster boy". He has said on record many times that he's a centrist and is against the extreme left and the extreme right. Let's not make false and unhelpful statements about Elon regardless of if we're left, centrist or right leaning. The media and shorts are doing everything to create infighting among TSLA supporters. Let's not add any more gas to the current fire.

 

[Knightshade]

TSLA falling to double digits would require the current PE to fall under 25.

If I had a dollar for every post explaining why the stock can't POSSIBLY go below some arbitrary PE that it then goes down below anyway I'd.... probably buy some LEAPs with it.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

“I wonder what could be causing this negativity? “ . (500 lbs. gorilla in the room)

Msm?
That’s all I’ve seen/ No actual material negatives currently for Tesla!? Just positive stuff in really. Elon hasn’t done anything bad wrt Tesla that I’ve seen, has he? MSMs is trash & all about $, ‘richest man’ bs etc. no one wants to back the richest person in the world that ‘owns’ Tesla. The narrative is absurdly disgusting

 

[JRP3]

Yahoo showing average daily volume at 83 million and we're already at 71 million.

 

[thx1139]

Noteworthy like by Elon this morning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602470241283543042

At this point just looks like wishful stick your head in the sand thinking.

 

[thx1139]

No, they are goods in transit. (e.g. inventory)

They cant be part of the 100K China sales and the China inventory.

 

[JRP3]

I agree with most of what you shared. To be clear, Elon is NOT the "new extreme right wing poster boy". He has said on record many times that he's a centrist and is against the extreme left and the extreme right. Let's not make false and unhelpful statements about Elon regardless of if we're left, centrist or right leaning. The media and shorts are doing everything to create infighting among TSLA supporters. Let's not add any more gas to the current fire.

His own words are showing him to not be the centrist he claims.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I agree with most of what you shared. To be clear, Elon is NOT the "new extreme right wing poster boy". He has said on record many times that he's a centrist and is against the extreme left and the extreme right. Let's not make false and unhelpful statements about Elon regardless of if we're left, centrist or right leaning. The media and shorts are doing everything to create infighting among TSLA supporters. Let's not add any more gas to the current fire.

I agree that he is probably not an extreme right person. But regardless, he is the new poster boy for the extreme right. And tesla is now being associated with that extreme right position. It’s irrelevant if he is actually right wing or not. He can see the same headlines as the rest of us. He just doesn’t care how he is portrayed. Which is kinda cool, but not for us investors.

Admittedly this has less of an impact overseas. But in North American it definitely does. And neither he, nor the board gives a rats ass.

Jmho.

 

[corduroy]

I would have not thought it possible, but I am questioning my investment thesis on TSLA. I was right about the company, right about the timing, right about EVs and the tech. What I didn't anticipate was that Elon himself would be the black swan I was always worried about. Yes, TSLA would be down with the macro, but I would estimate we'd be around $225 if Elon had not got involved with Twitter/politics.

Engineering and the product are most important, but brand is also very important and it has objectively taken a hit. The pool of potential customers has been reduced, which I believe will show up in reduced demand. In short, I believe the growth curve has been altered. How much is the big question?

I'm not selling, but I'm not comfortable adding anymore.

 

[BornToFly]

His own words are showing him to not be the centrist he claims.

I disagree. But that being said, the CEO of a Meg-Cap should stay out of politics. No matter what he says, it will be twisted around and used to piss off half the country. Does anyone think the CEO of Ford would get Boo'd in a stadium?

 

[thesmokingman]

That was pretty baller, one of the senators at the FTX party in Congress, called SBF prisoner number XXXX...

 

[Mengy]

If I had a dollar for every post explaining why the stock can't POSSIBLY go below some arbitrary PE that it then goes down below anyway I'd.... probably buy some LEAPs with it.

I agree. It's why I keep stating there are no hard and set PE rules for Wall Street. Sure there are traditions, but our PE can rise or fall to whatever the MM's want it to be as long as they have control of the stock. Which they currently do.

I agree a PE of 25 seems ridiculous for a company the size of Tesla growing as fast as they are with fundamentals as strong as we have. However, ridiculous does NOT equal impossible. We can fall much lower than this, even after a record massive Q4 posts. It IS possible.

 

[tslalala]

His own words are showing him to not be the centrist he claims.

Which specific words of Elon's are you referring to?

 

[thx1139]

I agree with most of what you shared. To be clear, Elon is NOT the "new extreme right wing poster boy". He has said on record many times that he's a centrist and is against the extreme left and the extreme right. Let's not make false and unhelpful statements about Elon regardless of if we're left, centrist or right leaning. The media and shorts are doing everything to create infighting among TSLA supporters. Let's not add any more gas to the current fire.

Doesnt matter that he says he is centrist. He is acting extreme right and ponying up with extreme right and in the USA extreme right has people in power. Extreme left doesnt, but he is painting the left as extreme even with issues that are supported by most of the country.