Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KBF]

Most of the Investor Forum has no idea what is happening to TSLA because talking about the reason will get you banned. Just WOW.

The sky is clearly falling...

If we want to walk into the Twitter thread we can - all of us managed to discover this thread on our own... This thread is about INVESTING - and we barely stay on topic as it is. Some people oversimplify patterns and make EVERYTHING about the current disaster du jour, and then every thread becomes about the One Thing.

I, for one, am grateful that there is a place where there's a chance I can find real data about fundamentals, projections, upcoming dates and actual news, and I'm glad I don't have to wade through the gossip columns to do so. The things that actually help invest in a company long-term. The other noise is what market makers use to manipulate retail to steal their quality shares or trick them into buying companies that are heading in the wrong direction.

The first bit of advice I received when getting into investments back in 2009 was - look at what the company is actually doing - their core business, don't get distracted by the virtue-signalling or marketing. Is the product fundamentally valuable, and is the company's approach sustainable, and how are the numbers actually trending?

 

[Mengy]

I would have not thought it possible, but I am questioning my investment thesis on TSLA. I was right about the company, right about the timing, right about EVs and the tech. What I didn't anticipate was that Elon himself would be the black swan I was always worried about. Yes, TSLA would be down with the macro, but I would estimate we'd be around $225 if Elon had not got involved with Twitter/politics.

Engineering and the product are most important, but brand is also very important and it has objectively taken a hit. The pool of potential customers has been reduced, which I believe will show up in reduced demand. In short, I believe the growth curve has been altered. How much is the big question?

I'm not selling, but I'm not comfortable adding anymore.

I think many investors are thinking this too, they aren't adding any TSLA right now due to unpredictability. And this is likely why the MM's have such control over the stock, the lack of buying volume is allowing them to run all over it at will.

Oh, and our PE is currently sitting at 47. We are now under a PE of 50.

 

[Huskyf]

+ these are times where some share buyback would be good. Board make own decisions.

Now agenda is not to show Elon selling, but more to show Tesla has fallen out of favor with retail crowd due to twits ...

we need boosters as regular good news has become immune ...

Not the fault of tesla or Elon see lucid rivian or orhers all are crashed one hour ago strange for example luci +7% and boiig one hier later new low ath 8.08 rivian same drop ¿.???

 

[Sofie]

Well, I took a 3-month hiatus because I couldn’t keep my eyes open in this rollar coaster. I am now questioning everything. Sell it all and put in a long term savings account at 3.6% interest or just hold I guess and hope we don’t lose everything invested.

 

[lafrisbee]

His own words are showing him to not be the centrist he claims.

Agreed. Words are words though. And I always look deeper at someone when they "tell" me what they are. And from what I understand about the term "centrist" Big E is bat shite delusional if he actually thinks he is a centrist. His "worth" comes from the ability to manufacture if you accept his statement, "Manufacturing is hard."

 

[thx1139]

The one good thing I can say about TSLA right now is that TSLA has dropped so much that on a day when it is down 3+% my portfolio can still be up. Thanks Elon.

 

[cliff harris]

Forgetting people banging on about twitter for a minute...
Is it my imagination or is everything (for once) going absolutely brilliantly with the company? A list:

• Cybertruck is definitely still happening, and the equipment is being delivered, production start soon.
• Shanghai running so smoothly they can take the guy in charge and promote him to a wider role.
• S/X plaid finally arriving in Europe.
• Semi now in customers hands, and actual production is live.
• 4680s now in the wild, and ramping.
• Casting machine clearly working, cars with cast components are in the wild.
• FSD beta is in pretty wide release and STILL no major accidents.
• Berlin & Austin both ramping nicely.

This is in wide contrast to the previous year, when we were all worrying if the semi would ever happen, the 4680s looked like they had stalled, and there were endless delays and bureaucracy surrounding berlin! Meanwhile...

• Toyota are still trying to make manual-transmission EVs and hybrids a thing
• Rivian are getting nowhere fast, just abandoned plans to make vans
• Lucid look likely to collapse
• The IRA looks like it will, in practice, be a huge subsidy for Tesla, keeping their margins stratospherically high even as supply ramps.

I cant recall a time, since I first bought stock in 2015, where everything has been going so smoothly. Only downside is some brand damage due to unrelenting attacks on elon in MSM, but that won't stick. The cars are just *too good*.
The only threats to Tesla are BYD, XPeng and NIO. Everyone else is a clown show.

 

[GOVA]

Tesla’s a perfectly fine car. I like driving the Mach-E better. It has excellent build quality and has much more of a sports feel than any other crossover or SUV I’ve ever driven. (I’ve driven BMW 3s for a long time. Very fun but very unreliable.) Some drivers will find Teslas more to their liking but I wouldn’t call the Ford inferior in any way.

You did not mention supercharging much on 3,000 mile trips. Curious.

 

[JRP3]

Which specific words of Elon's are you referring to?

Not getting into that here.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Brighter days ahead. Made new friends and searched their couch. In for another 30 chairs.

 

[EverettRuess]

Most of the Investor Forum has no idea what is happening to TSLA because talking about the reason will get you banned. Just WOW.

It was only three days for me. Wow has this board changed its stripes.

 

[ZsoZso]

Has to be Elon selling. He only has the firepower to produce this kind of price action.

Did you miss all the statistical proof presented on this thread that Elon selling has no effect on the stock price ?

Yeah, I know I found it hard to believe too, but the peer pressure is strong here...

 

[tslalala]

Well, I took a 3-month hiatus because I couldn’t keep my eyes open in this rollar coaster. I am now questioning everything. Sell it all and put in a long term savings account at 3.6% interest or just hold I guess and hope we don’t lose everything invested.

I feel for you. I've had similar sentiments of late. If TSLA was going down for real, material reasons I would sell my TSLA shares. I am holding on because objectively, TSLA is performing well on fundamentals and the stock price is tanking due to a coordinated FUD and mis/dis-information attacks (which has happened to both TSLA and Elon many times in the past).

We're currently in the middle of the biggest perception war ever on TSLA/Elon. Mainstream media and financial firms are opening colluding and lying with false news stories left and right.

 

[lafrisbee]

The stock is the lowest it has been since Nov of 2020. So for over two years, and tens of thousands of pages of wisdom written on this site about the stock is about to take off.... well it is what it is

 

[Eugene Ash]

Well, I took a 3-month hiatus because I couldn’t keep my eyes open in this rollar coaster. I am now questioning everything. Sell it all and put in a long term savings account at 3.6% interest or just hold I guess and hope we don’t lose everything invested.

Stay strong, we have been through this before. Remember March 2020.

 

[mongo]

Well, there's the problem right there.
Cybertruck is marked down 46% for the next 13 hours.

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/mega-c...llectors-building-set/6527539.p?skuId=6527539

 

[betstarship]

Q (to help discussion) - does Elon and board have the ability and legitimate claim to take Tesla private now?

Edited Note: It seems to be a trend. Private equity firms pounce to take companies private

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree. It's why I keep stating there are no hard and set PE rules for Wall Street. Sure there are traditions, but our PE can rise or fall to whatever the MM's want it to be as long as they have control of the stock. Which they currently do.

I agree a PE of 25 seems ridiculous for a company the size of Tesla growing as fast as they are with fundamentals as strong as we have. However, ridiculous does NOT equal impossible. We can fall much lower than this, even after a record massive Q4 posts. It IS possible.

Except there are general rules for valuation

Look across the spectrum of stocks WITH earnings, that have multiples attached to them. This notion that Tesla can fall to double digits and have a PE valuation as low as 20 or the teen's is nonsense BECAUSE of the relative valuation what every other stock in the market is getting in relation to their growth.

When I point this out, practically every example that's listed to counter this argument is "Well Apple traded at an extremely low PE in 2009"........and yeah.....so did every other stock out there! It was the Great Financia Crisis where PE multiples across every stock compressed dramatically because guess what....so did growth/earnings.

Were TSLA to drop to a PE multiple in the teens while every company out there is getting a PE multiple 2-3X their actual sales/earnings growth, it would be the single biggest discrepancy in Wall St history and by a mile.

Seeing how from the latest CPI we are CLEARLY at the end of inflation and near a Fed pivot........we are NOT in a Great Financial Crisis situation here.

 

[elasalle]

Not the fault of tesla or Elon see lucid rivian or orhers all are crashed one hour ago strange for example luci +7% and boiig one hier later new low ath 8.08 rivian same drop ¿.???

we really want to compare market leader with losers

 

[OrthoSurg]

Well, I took a 3-month hiatus because I couldn’t keep my eyes open in this rollar coaster. I am now questioning everything. Sell it all and put in a long term savings account at 3.6% interest or just hold I guess and hope we don’t lose everything invested.

I was thinking about you the other day working like crazy to invest all your job proceeds into TSLA. Well this has not worked really well for me lately every money I make and send into TSLA goes down while the SPY is green and green and green.

This also makes me think about selling a part and going into ETFs.

I bought some more TQQQ which has been doing better than TSLA lately