Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mach-edriver]

You did not mention supercharging much on 3,000 mile trips. Curious.

What are you curious about? I don't use it for 3000 mile trips. I live in South Florida. There are no pleasant road trips down here.

 

[Zero CO2]

I would have not thought it possible, but I am questioning my investment thesis on TSLA. I was right about the company, right about the timing, right about EVs and the tech. What I didn't anticipate was that Elon himself would be the black swan I was always worried about. Yes, TSLA would be down with the macro, but I would estimate we'd be around $225 if Elon had not got involved with Twitter/politics.

Engineering and the product are most important, but brand is also very important and it has objectively taken a hit. The pool of potential customers has been reduced, which I believe will show up in reduced demand. In short, I believe the growth curve has been altered. How much is the big question?

I'm not selling, but I'm not comfortable adding anymore.

Well, I took a 3-month hiatus because I couldn’t keep my eyes open in this rollar coaster. I am now questioning everything. Sell it all and put in a long term savings account at 3.6% interest or just hold I guess and hope we don’t lose everything invested.

FUD is clearly working on many of you ... really hard to believe just how powerful the manipulation by the media can be ... this is exactly what they want you to think ... and then part with your shares ... this is coordinated and brutal FUD attack ...it feels worse than 2018 and 2019 attacks ... yet the disconnect between the Tesla and TSLA has never been greater ... HODL

 

[JRP3]

Q (to help discussion) - does Elon and board have the ability and legitimate claim to take Tesla private now?

Edited Note: It seems to be a trend. Private equity firms pounce to take companies private

I'll take $420 please.

 

[Sofie]

Stay strong, we have been through this before. Remember March 2020.

I really want to believe it’ll be okay but I’m really so discouraged. I don’t know what to do anymore.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I really want to believe it’ll be okay but I’m really so discouraged. I don’t know what to do anymore.

Don’t worry, be happy.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Time for DITM calls rage buying? Are we there yet?

 

[Mengy]

Well, I took a 3-month hiatus because I couldn’t keep my eyes open in this rollar coaster. I am now questioning everything. Sell it all and put in a long term savings account at 3.6% interest or just hold I guess and hope we don’t lose everything invested.

If your plan is to hold TSLA long then I would never sell down at this stupidly low valuation. Despite the stock being down at a two year low, the company is stronger than ever financially and competitively, and 2023 looks to be another massively positive year for Tesla coming up.

I know the stock performance is disheartening, I'm sad about it too, but long term this is all just noise. It's important to realize this noise could last quite a long time yet, we might not see TSLA move positively in a significant way for a year or even more. But it WILL go up in time, that is almost a near certainty given the company's current strength.

If you need the money soon though, then yeah I'd be concerned.

 

[Christine69420]

I really want to believe it’ll be okay but I’m really so discouraged. I don’t know what to do anymore.

Then do nothing. If you feel desperate you might end up doing something you will regret.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The sky is clearly falling...

If we want to walk into the Twitter thread we can - all of us managed to discover this thread on our own... This thread is about INVESTING - and we barely stay on topic as it is. Some people oversimplify patterns and make EVERYTHING about the current disaster du jour, and then every thread becomes about the One Thing.

I, for one, am grateful that there is a place where there's a chance I can find real data about fundamentals, projections, upcoming dates and actual news, and I'm glad I don't have to wade through the gossip columns to do so. The things that actually help invest in a company long-term. The other noise is what market makers use to manipulate retail to steal their quality shares or trick them into buying companies that are heading in the wrong direction.

The first bit of advice I received when getting into investments back in 2009 was - look at what the company is actually doing - their core business, don't get distracted by the virtue-signalling or marketing. Is the product fundamentally valuable, and is the company's approach sustainable, and how are the numbers actually trending?

FYI, I just visited the Elon thread, and it's like kids arguing in a playground about if was he boo'd off stage or not, followed by data on his approval rating. It's clearly a place to go hate someone for investing in a company that everyone was warned about years ago (insert "You are here" image that I can never find).

I did need to go check as there seemed to be something missing? Not. Maybe I'll visit the other thread too, but I bet folks clamoring for inclusion here might not realize that the topic is toxic FUD generating material... and off topic mostly. Some is good, extreme is not, feeding your anger is not productive. So I'm right back here in sanity land. Tough situation for mods as well, just can't have a little before it's infested and off track.

Haters gonna hate hate hate hate, (fueled by the)
Hate-makers gonna make make make make...

 

[WattsHappening]

Sorry to tell you all that I rage-bought another 90 shares at $162.

Now for sure it's dropping to $140.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Kia EV6 seems nice, good specs, looks great in red, if it had SC access it would be top of my list.

I won't post any more this week on this subject in this thread (please use an appropriate thread - I'm done on the subject with this single thought). However for those who are considering switching EVs, I urge you to research and think hard.

I agree with Elon on avoiding large, high-energy pouch cells. If nothing else, there will be recalls & doubts about their reliability. I don't think they're suitable for rigours of vehicle life (temperature eg Taycan warranty, altitude, vibration, high-speed charging).

LFP anything I'd be happy with, well-engineered cylinders for high-power/nickel.

Spoiler: Elon-Pouch-Cells

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433670656315600919

 

[elasalle]

Time for DITM calls rage buying? Are we there yet?

I have rage buy Deja Vu all over again
but no more money ...

 

[dhanson865]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602577395688652800

So 180x from now to 2035? Did I do that math right?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Haters gonna hate hate hate hate, (fueled by the)
Hate-makers gonna make make make make...

 

[Mengy]

Then do nothing. If you feel desperate you might end up doing something you will regret.

There is a reason why dead people make the most successful long term investors.

 

[JRP3]

Sorry to tell you all that I rage-bought another 90 shares at $162.

Now for sure it's dropping to $140.

Me too, in for another 200, look out beloooowwww!

 

[Todd Burch]

I really want to believe it’ll be okay but I’m really so discouraged. I don’t know what to do anymore.

The solution is to do nothing. If price action bothers you, stop looking at it. Stop coming here for awhile. Seriously. It's helped me many times. It will stop you from making a bad investment decision, like selling TSLA anywhere in these price ranges.

 

[kbM3]

So, I should worry about China demand, because China is full of risks, but if Q4 is a record-breaking quarter, in terms of production and delivery in China, I shouldn't pretend it has any bearing on the long-term value of the stock?

OK, got it! Thanks!

As much as I love your posts, I have a small nitpick with this one.

i don’t believe record producation/deliveries is the proper metric. Theoretically Tesla could have record deliveries in every single quarter in every single geography for the rest of this decade, and still be a disappointment to what we are expecting.

What we need is an average annual global delivery increase of > 40% for at least a few years. That is FAR more difficult than merely achieving record deliveries.

 

[2daMoon]

Most of the Investor Forum has no idea what is happening to TSLA because talking about the reason will get you banned. Just WOW.

I must have missed where you posted the rebuttal to the analysis by @Gigapress which disproves this presumption of a correlation.

Please, provide the link so I may be as informed as you regarding any actual facts supporting this notion. (hint: Feelings are not considered facts in such an analysis)

Otherwise, the reason the Investor Forum has no idea is simply because there is nothing other than emotion to support the idea and most successful investors have the good sense to discount emotions when dealing with the stock market.

 

[Sofie]

If your plan is to hold TSLA long then I would never sell down at this stupidly low valuation. Despite the stock being down at a two year low, the company is stronger than ever financially and competitively, and 2023 looks to be another massively positive year for Tesla coming up.

I know the stock performance is disheartening, I'm sad about it too, but long term this is all just noise. It's important to realize this noise could last quite a long time yet, we might not see TSLA move positively in a significant way for a year or even more. But it WILL go up in time, that is almost a near certainty given the company's current strength.

If you need the money soon though, then yeah I'd be concerned.

No. No need for money. I have more than enough in savings to last me 10 years and that’s if I lost my two jobs lol. So yeah. I’m okay on that front. Just discouraged is all. This year, 2022, has been the worst year of my life emotionally. I have to learn from this year rather than just be happy it’ll be over in a few more weeks.
Thank you. Wise words. I have…to hold. I have to stay strong. I have to. It’s been my resolve since day one. I can’t give up.